The GQ Approach – Laurel February 11

by | Feb 11, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,314.53
  • Super High 5: $643.79
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey’s Choice - Often a jockey will have ridden more than one of the horses in their last race who are entered today; which horse the jockey decides to ride could be a tip he/she likes this one's chances better than the others.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 / #6 – Quality Asset (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 2 / #4 – Wonder How (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 2  w/ 2, 4  ($8)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  2, 4, 7  w/ 3, 4, 6  w/ 1, 5, 6 ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  1, 5  w/ 2, 5, 7  w/ 2, 6, 9  w/ 3, 6  w/ 2, 11 ($36)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  3, 6  w/ 2, 11 ($8)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy with rain, highs in the low-60s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: SLOPPY

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #1/1A – Baltimore Street/Saint Mamie (2-1): “The Block” went gate-to-wire in latest going 7f very similar while entrymate returns from FG after two OTB outings on the turf v. better
  2. #2 – Dance N Denae (3-1): Never OTB when the track is “off” (3:0-1-2) and has yet to win at this distance (7:0-1-3) while beaten favorite at this level in last two outings
  3. #4 – Myheartsinthecity (7-2): Threat to get early lead and not give it up; strangely gets fourth different jock in as many races; won 2 of last 3 while PT favorite in all 

Race 2

  1. #4 – Wonder How (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Saturday’s program was dominated by early speed on a sloppy surface; track conditions will be the same today and this one appears to be the one leading the charge early; first time going two turns but pedigree indicates he should have the stamina to succeed    
  2. #2/2x – Ninetyeightoctane/Little Jimmy B (7-5): “98” tries for fourth consecutive win as he’s 3 for 3 since adding blinkers and “Jimmy” gained some confidence by just missing after first 3 v. winners were not pretty
  3. #1/1A – Holiday Ice/Here’s Paco (8-1): “Ice” has running lines in sprints which indicate two turns is his calling but “Paco” has been beaten by double-digits in all 3 races since breaking maiden in slop here

Race 3

  1. #4 – Irish Colony (7-2): MD-bred FTS by Petionville out of a Tale of the Cat mare shows a half dozen works, latest from the gate but nothing special and can say the same about rivals who have run 
  2. #7 – Recsue Five (9-5): Adds Blinkers for second start after an eventful debut CT v. state-bred maidens where held on for the SHOW purse; could win with a better trip while covering more ground    
  3. #2 – Ivegotthatmagicnme (5-1): Found level where he can compete after dropping from MSW to $25kMCL to the bottom where he hung onto PLACE spot 

Race 4

  1. #3 – Hey Willie (8-5): Trainer K. Magee went bottom fishing and hook a winner with $5k claim; 23% with “1st after claim” runners but not so much off leading trainer C. Gonzalez (re: Porte Cochere yesterday); does like an off going though and is lone speed on what should remain a speed favoring track
  2. #4 – Big Slick (10-1): Is a bit off form but of late but should enjoy the sloppy going (4:2-1-0) on the multi-level class drop as trainer J. Robb wins at 22% clip
  3. #6 – Sir Bond (2-1): Appears to have been a prudent claim for trainer B. Tessore of this NY shipper/dropper off R. Rodriguez… but time will tell as no one makes a good living giving away good ones for a nickel

Race 5

  1. #1 – Bo Vuk (8-5): IMHO a stand out here but ML is just below the GQ “Best Best” line which seeks value but that doesn’t mean you cannot load up with confidence requirement; has faced better of late; only concern would be a speed favoring surface  
  2. #5 – Injaazaat (6-1): 3 wins by a total of 29-lengths with two of those on an off track; only blemish on record is a 24-length loss as all 4 have come at Mvr; tries to find middle ground and this OC$16k is the right spot; note how trainer also has #3 in here which is only reason this race “goes”
  3. #6 – Painted Patchen (2-1): Catch a glimpse of this WHITE T’bred before the race because his off the pace running style will have him looking brown, coated with mud afterwards; second start w/ blinkers angle

Race 6

  1. #5 – Legal Precedent (2-1): Has struggled of late at this level but has the talent to compete v. better; jock switch could be the winning move and half of this 1 for 17 gelding’s runner-up finishes have come on an off track
  2. #2 – Smart Royal (5-2): Best last race BRIS# (81) among today’s foes which is best of seven race career; only question is can he handle an off track? Based on pedigree he should  
  3. #7 – Sensational Notion (9-2): Tossing last one, first start v. winners as he got squeezed at the start; never OTB going this distance v. $25kMCL

Race 7

  1. #2 – Align the Numbers (5-1): Second start with blinkers has shown ability to get to the front though there are others in here with same intentions; is it insane to think trainer D. Lockard gets her first win since Nov. 2014 (0 for 50 since)?! Her horse doesn’t know that
  2. #6 – Just Warmin’ Up (12-1): If any runners can get to the wire first from off the pace today it should be this one; adds Blinkers and gets third different jock (S. Russell) in third career start
  3. #9 – Treetop Flyer (4-1): Likely the speed of the speed; was much the second best in latest try to graduate when 6+ lengths clear of SHOW runner

Race 8

  1. #6 – Quality Asset (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Disposed of $25kN2L group at Prx in latest when coming off a 4-month layoff as 6-5 fav.; picks up ‘’18 local leading rider who is 4 for 7 with trainer J. Servis runners at the meet 
  2. #3 – Brighton Lane (5-2): Was a poster boy for “Seconditis” until he got second career victory in 24th start after a string of five runner-up finishes; 0 for 7 though at this one mile distance
  3. #2 – Worth His Salt (10-1): Huuuge scratch of the #7 leaves this one on the early lead all by his lonesome self which could sweeten the horizontals if he can go gate-to-wire

Race 9

  1. #11 – Slim (5-1): No early speed hurts plus can you trust that today is the day for a 13-time loser? Somebody must cross the wire first and this one will like the cut back to 6f
  2. #9 – Imitation (9-2): Trainer cannot make up his mind has blinkers have been put on then taken off in past 6 races; back on today tries sprinting for first time in tenth career start
  3. #2 – The Intern (6-1): Gate-to-wire candidate has gotten leg weary late in all three at this level but the track wasn’t as kind to early speed has it was yesterday… and probably will be today  

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday February 10th at Laurel had 8 winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $6.40 (1st race), $5.80 (2nd race), $5.60 (3rd), $6.20 (5th), $5.40 (6th), $3.80 (7th), $5.20 (8th) and $13.60 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 Double paid $23.00 (cost: $6) and the R5-R9 50 cent Pick-5 paid $227.60 (cost: $36). Top Selections are 53 for 146 (36.30%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (16:4-2-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Griff’s Ghost (6th race: 9-2 M/L; 5-2 PT) opened up early, set the pace two to three wide and under some rating, was staved off the winner for five and a half furlongs, failed to match strides past the quarter pole but kept trying and saved the place to return $4.20 to PLACE $3.00 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (15:4-3-1; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Silent Prayer (7th race: 8-1 M/L; 7-2 PT) chased the pace outside horses, was five deep mid-way on the turn and weakened to finished fifth.

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