The GQ Approach – Laurel February 10

by | Feb 10, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $729
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
“Z” race last out - If a horse loses ground from 2nd call to 3rd call but gains ground from 3rd call to the finish, s/he often runs an improved race in her next start.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 6 /#3 – Griff’s Ghost (9-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 / #11 – Silent Prayer (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  2, 3, 4  w/ 3  ($6)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  3, 6, 8  w/ 3, 5, 7  w/ 2, 5, 6 ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  2, 6  w/ 3, 5  w/ 7, 11  w/ 1, 4, 6  w/ 3, 5, 9 ($36)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  1, 6  w/ 3, 9 ($8)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy with rain, highs in the low-50s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: GOOD to SLOPPY

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #4 – Premier Event (7-2): Drops back to level where trainer J. Cruz claimed this former $299.5k (yeah, that’s almost $3 mil) yearling purchase in Japan… for $16k in debut; seeks first clean trip
  2. #3 – Stunning Baby (8-5): This baby been a Vet scratch while trying to make first start of ’18; makes third straight class drop since debut in MSW on grass 
  3. #2 – Zeke the Streak (6-1): Third race after 6-month layoff; steadied at the start in previous two yet speed figs have improved; looks to break SHOW streak of three in a row 

Race 2

  1. #3 – Starry Messenger (3-1): Lone win came on turf going 5f so why would he be top pick going two turns on dirt? This field lacks early speed and Vargas should be aggressive and send him because he SHOWed, losing by less than a length in only two turn outing
  2. #1 – Wilko’s Goldeneye (2-1): Scratched from nightcap on Friday to help fill this race which appears a lot easier for this 1 for 22 gelding to get to Winners’ Circle; gets class relief but has been a Yo-Yo between $10k and $5k without luck
  3. #6 – Jackson S (6-1): Another who opted to run here v. Friday; best efforts have come at this $5kN2L level and maiden score was at this distance

Race 3

  1. #8 – Glam Slam (5-2): Beaten favorite in last two but was unlucky in latest when steadied at the quarter pole while ride a dead rail; outside post should change those fortunes
  2. #6 – Ami’s Exchange (3-1): Makes first natural dirt track start after eight career outings at WO on synthetic and turf; pedigree doesn’t scream turf so class relief based on private purchase helps
  3. #3 – Miss My People (6-1): Good sign that jock C. Quinones stays aboard in spite of barn switch via claim; always earned a check but that was at bottom; maybe change of scenery will turn lightbulb on

Race 4

  1. #5 – Truly Hot (8-1): Scratched as POE on Friday from an AlwN1x; first time in for a tag since August at The Big T; was double-digits odds in last three but should be south of that racing for cheapest level ever; only time she’s hit the board is when she wins (4 for 13)
  2. #3 – Porte Cochere (4-1): Trainer K. Magee went bottom fishing and hook a winner with $5k claim for a mare who won at this level in Dec.; 23% with “1st after claim” runners but not sure if any were off leading trainer C. Gonzalez
  3. #7 – Forest Pike (7-2): Been racing in Open Claimers and Starters of late while BRIS speed figs ascend toward levels this 6 y.o. mare used to earn not long ago

Race 5

  1. #2 – Classy Scarlett (4-1): Can boast best BRIS# (81) going 1 1/16 miles in only start going the far albeit on synthetic at WO but has hit the board in only two natural dirt starts (Win & Show)
  2. #5 – Chef Karen (5-2): One of two in here dropping from $10k to $5k; troubling to see she was cold on the board (16-1) in latest when 7th by 16 after being a 4-1 runner-up v. similar; has shown a liking for an off track (3:1-1-1)
  3. #6 – Hashtag Selfie (9-5): Should relish stretch out to two turns after showing late interest going 7 panels when coming off short layoff; both victories have come at Lrl, one at this distance 

Race 6

  1. #3 – Griff’s Ghost (9-2): *** BEST BET *** Rockets out of the gate but went too fast too early in first race v. winners; jock switch to C. Cedeno could help harness his speed to save for the stretch run
  2. #5 – Gato Dolce (2-1): Couldn’t hack it on So. Cal circuit so after a dozen starts, ships to MD and destroys $16kMCLsrally in next start feel short but one mile might be pushing it based on past tries at this distance
  3. #2 – Encrypt (6-1): Broke maiden in 15th start, ironically when Lasix was not administered; claimed out of that race and continues to race w/o Lasix; an off track will help (6:0-2-3)

Race 7

  1. #11 – Silent Prayer (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Question the generous ML odds as she was a bridesmaid when sent off 3-1 in latest at this level and in spite of being 1 for 23 lifetime, her lone win came on an off track (6:1-2-0)
  2. #7 – Dorothyfromdublin (3-1): Vulnerable favorite simply due to her last race came just 6 days ago; young fillies need a bit more time to recoup and in her PPs she’s twice run back in 14 days, both times OTB after being runner-up; cut back to 7f and prospects of an off track will help
  3. #2 – Majorie Mugs (20-1): Has hit the board in last three efforts going this 7 furlongs distance at odds of 9-2, 46-1 and 40-1; was way wide on turns in latest going 6f and switch back to the suddenly hot riding X-Man makes this one a must use underneath at the very least

Race 8

  1. #1 – I’m Mr. Blue (5-1): Plenty others in here are stepping up to this AlwN1x level so his Also-Ran results don’t scare off this Capper; gets 7 lb. break w/ bug W. Hamilton whose riding style fits
  2. #6 – Magician’scalendar (6-1): Showed nothing in first start in 8-months v. restricted foes at this level but sprinting is not his thing; gets two turns today and last win came on a muddy Lrl oval
  3. #4 – Twin Valor (9-5): Runner-up when 15-1 to a next out winner in AlwN1x makes him the logical standout but tired badly in his only two turn try

Race 9

  1. #9 – Lucky Stiff (5-2): Found the level she can be successful and it’s right here as she won by 4+ lengths against a few in here in her last outing which came on a “good” track; speed figs are going in the right direction
  2. #3 – Queen to Checkmate (8-1): Second best to top pick for trainer C. Young who has done well with the few she conditions (9:3-1-1) locally; could prevail if latest was a bounce
  3. #5 – Chancee (9-2): Comes off maiden score in tenth career start when moved up a level from the bottom; form got flattered by gal who beat her two back as she easily won v. $25k Claimers  

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday February 9th at Laurel had 8 winners from the 9-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $6.00 (2nd race), $6.40 (3rd), $16.00 (4th), $6.40 (5th), $8.80 (6th), $6.40 (7th), $10.00 (8th) and $4.40 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R3-R5 50 cent Pick-3 paid $102.70 (cost: $13.50) and the R5-R9 50 cent Pick-5 paid $414.10 (cost: $18). Top Selections are 50 for 137 (36.50%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (15:4-1-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Munificent (8th race: 7-2 M/L; 5-2 PT) broke alertly and raced on the lead between rivals 3-wide on the turn, was put to the drive entering the stretch, dug in gamely but weakened late to finish fourth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (14:4-3-1; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) King’s House (4th race: 8-1 M/L; 7-1 PT) keen to go early and pulled his way well clear, dictated around the turn while three wide, responded to coaxing in upper stretch and widened under a drive to win by seven-and-three-quarter lengths to return $16.00 to WIN, $6.40 to PLACE $4.40 to SHOW.

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