The GQ Approach – Laurel February 9

by | Feb 9, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: $759.69
  • Late Pick 5: None
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Lightbulb Theory - When a horse finally breaks maiden after repeated failures, the lightbulb in his/her head may have come on and s/he may run very well in her next race, too.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 /#6 – Munificent (7-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 3 / #6 – King’s House (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  3, 6  w/ 2, 5, 7  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  1, 3, 7  w/ 1, 2, 6  w/ 4, 5, 7 ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  4, 7  w/ 2, 3  w/ 6  w/ 1, 4, 6  w/ 1, 3, 9 ($18)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  1, 6  w/ 3, 9 ($8)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy, highs in the low-40s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #3 – Miss Swisher (6-1): Never felt the whip nor asked for anything throughout his latest; with the jock switch back to S. Hamilton that won’t happen this time; she’ll be heard from late  
  2. #6 – Baleroom Dancer (7-2): Faded in last two where she was pressed and couldn’t get the lead while on the rail in most recent run; drew outside of other speed (#5) this time and maybe X-Man will be a bit more patient early 
  3. #7 – Stormy Mama (3-1): Been knocking at the door while not having clean trips but would rather not be first under the wire (4 for 52 lifetime, 1 for 39 at Lrl and OTB in 14 tries at this distance)

Race 2

  1. #5 – Witchy’s Laststand (9-5): First start after D. Capuano claim (14%) for $15k in late Dec. tries for natural Hat Trick and turn the tables on #4 who was the last one to beat him to the wire  
  2. #2 – Albertos Al Quinto (5-2): Runner-up in all 3 starts at different venues (Del, Prx, Pen) after breaking maiden in slop at Del 4 races back while the BRIS speed figs have slowly climbed
  3. #7 – Old Dude (6-1): First start after claim for trainer C. Gonzalez has been a 31% winning prop with a positive ROI over the past few years; small step up from last outing when beaten favorite

Race 3

  1. #7 – Persie (2-1): Drops from open $7,500 claimers in $5k conditional event; should get the early lead w/o much pressure as J.D. Acosta will pilot this Street Sense gelding who enjoys two turns
  2. #1/1A – Tequila Hero/Squashville Road (7-2): #1A exits $5kN3L victory albeit at CT but has finished ahead of #3 in here; #1 once was better than new stablemate but carbon copy races (5th by 11) since arriving from FL appears he’s off form; trainer J. Robb is 19% with “2nd after claim”
  3. #3 – Horseshoe Harbour (4-1): Might be asking too much to come back in just 13 days after conquering N3L condition going 9 panels; seems to give 100% when he feels like it based on PPs

Race 4

  1. #6 – King’s House (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Rough trip just 9 days ago at CT yet was game to get second v. AlwN1x; two back got first Lrl win in 9th try over the surface when 11-1 along a dead rail w/ hot riding J. Vargas, Jr. in the irons who is aboard again
  2. #2 – Classic Wildcat (5-2): Trainer KTL doing right by this 12 y.o. by dropping him back to the level ($7,500) he’s been successful of late even though his 4th v. $15k was deceiving good as he was forced 7-wide on the turn entering the stretch; sentimental choice
  3. #1/1A – Final Forum/Wise Mac (3-1): A nice 1-2 punch for trainer D. Capuano has their Prime Power# ranks them 1st and 2nd; #1 does his best work on an off track (will be FAST today) and #1A makes first start after claim at ripe age of 8 after being distant second to #4 in here

Race 5

  1. #7 – What the Beep (9-2): Progressed nicely to come up a half-length short after getting an education in debut v. a salty group of fillies; only needs to take another small step forward to graduate v. these gals
  2. #4 – Elevated Vision (5-1): MD-bred FTS by Great Notion out of a Polish Numbers mare has an impressive work tab of six drills including three bullets; this one could improve on trainer P. Schoenthal’s 6% with first time starters
  3. #5 – To Be Honest (6-1): Have run behind a quartet of next out winners, two in her last two starts; was keen early but couldn’t hold off a pair of rivals late in latest when 15-1; she’s learning 

Race 6

  1. #3 – Queen of Schmooze (6-1): “Hammy” Smith snuck another SC-bred under the radar, debuting at bottom and won easy, earning a speed fig that’s comparable to her rivals; fourth-place finisher came back to win when stepping up one level
  2. #2 – Dad’s City Girl (7-2): There’s plenty of speed in here but she should be leading at the first call… whether she uses up too much energy early to keep the lead will determine if she can wire this field
  3. #7 – Guiltywithanexcuse (5-2): IMHO a vulnerable favorite who appeared to be struggling in deep stretch v. better; drops back in for $25k where trainer A. Farrior nab her three races back

Race 7

  1. #6 – Rumor Ridge (2-1): Much the second best in debut when sent off 9-1 from the rail; catches a break with a better draw for second start; even if she regresses off that effort, those who have raced would need to improve to challenge her 
  2. #10 – Parapente (15-1): KY/home-bred daughter of K One King out of a Cape Canaveral mare has had others be very competitive in debut for trainer K. Rubley; love the workout pattern
  3. #13 – More Better (15-1): Got up for the SHOW purse in debut when 5-1 and 5+ behind winner who came back to win again; trainer J. Egan looking to break an 0 for 20 with runners coming off 46-90 day layoff; been working lights out since debut

Race 8

  1. #6 – Munificent (7-2): *** BEST BET *** Could be a monster in the making; 2 for 2 since trainer M. Eppler claimed her for $25k out of debut only to see her run dead last by 16-lengths; those bullet works at Pim are no joke as that surface is like running on sand dunes and neither was that 94 BRIS# she earned in latest
  2. #1 – Misschief Maas (9-2): Definition of consistency in the thoroughbred world (16:5-4-5) as she’s responded to facing allowance level foes in last 3 after C. Gonzalez took over the conditioning duties; just missed against a sharp next out winner in latest on Boxing Day
  3. #4 – Cairenn (3-1): Got beat by top pick when 6-5 PT fav. in $40kMCL then flattered that one by destroying a MSW field in next start followed by runner-up effort at Aqu v. Alw50ks 2 weeks ago

Race 9

  1. #9 – Cent Comm (5-2): Beaten favorite in all four starts since trainer J. Egan claim; not sure if change of tactics was the plan or gelding was too keen coming off short layoff but reverting to off the pace style should work better here along with class relief ($10k to $5k)
  2. #3 – Earned It (9-2): After underperforming in four starts against $10kN2L trainer H. Wolfendale drops this gelding to the bottom in hopes of getting second win in eighteen start
  3. #1 – Brute Force (6-1): Where’s the speed?! Don’t bother looking beyond post #1… well ok, the #2 too, but the rail might be more daunting then the R. Rodriguez steep class dropper/NY shipper directly to his outside

YESTERDAY’S NEWS 

  • On Sunday February 4th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $3.20 (2nd race), $4.60 (4th), $11.40 (5th), $5.20 (7th), $8.00 (8th) and $6.20 (9th). Top Selections are 46 for 128 (35.94%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (14:4-1-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Friend of Liberty (8th race: 5-2 M/L; 6-5 PT) urged along off the contested pace, gathered steam off the rail mid turn, angled six wide into the lane, kept on willingly but was no match for the winner, returning $3.00 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (13:3-3-1; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Rare Notion (3rd race: 6-1 M/L; 2-1 PT) checked in tight quarters mid-way down the backstretch, was four deep on the turn and finished evenly to be third, four-and-one-half lengths behind the winner to return $2.40 to SHOW.

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