The GQ Approach – Laurel February 4

by | Feb 4, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,930
  • Super High 5$591
  • Late Pick 5: None
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey/Trainer Combo - Take advantage of the statistics provided with the Past Performances, which give these stats for the current meet and over the past year; some trainer and jocks win at inordinately high rates.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 /#2 – Friend of Liberty (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 3 / #2 – Rare Notion (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 3  w/ 2, 3, 6  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  2, 3, 6  w/ 5, 7, 8  w/ 1, 4, 6 ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  4, 6  w/ 5, 10, 11  w/ 2, 4, 6  w/ 2  w/ 1, 6, 9 ($27)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  2  w/ 1, 6, 9 ($6)

Analysis

  • Weather: Cloudy with rain, highs in the low-30s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: SLOPPY

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #3 – Postino’s Secret (7-2): Drawing a line through latest as that came on just 5 days rest; she’s as honest as the day is long and will start her run at the far turn, as usual  
  2. #1 – Already Bettye (8-1): This group appears to lack early speed so counting on trainer W. Potts to work his magic first time saddling this gal who has shown ability to be on the lead at the first call on the CT bull-ring; thinking L. Rodriguez taking mount over top pick was a “good business decision” short-term NO, in the long run MAYBE 
  3. #2 – Boosting (2-1): Hasn’t won a race in over a year and that was via DQ; tremendous class relief but needs it based on showing zilch in first race in over 6-months (Jan. 19, ’18); does like an off track (4:2-1-0)

Race 2

  1. #2 – Greasedlightning (8-5): Nice MD-bred daughter of Flat Out seems to enjoy two turns and an off track; trainer D. Capuano has done a fine job since claiming her four races back 
  2. #6 – All Good Times (12-1): Got a feeling this one will improve off that SHOW effort behind the #2 and #4 in here
  3. #3 – Tiz Surprised (5-2): Makes first start going tow turns but is bred both top and bottom to relish the extra distance

Race 3

  1. #2 – Rare Notion (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Home/MD-bred FTS by Great Notion out of a Tiznow mare works are nothing special but do like the two from the gate; connections are in the business of selling thoroughbreds so the ones they keep/race usually turn out to be good
  2. #6 – Belfour (8-5): Could third time be the charm? The better (on paper) of the two uncoupled C. Lynch trainees (#1 is the other); has shown he can run on an off track as his daddy did in KY Derby
  3. #3 – Two Punch Smart (15-1): No Lasix, no problem for this gray PA-bred gelded son of More Smoke out of a Not for Love mare; just one published work since late September, a bullet over a Pim track that’s like running on the beach; should be quick from the gate

Race 4

  1. #8 – Anissa (2-1): Toss latest as she stumbled so badly at the start she had jock F. Boyce checking her pants; needs pace in front of her to make amends and Boyce to shake out of ’18 slump (1 for 22)
  2. #7 – Dorothyfromdublin (9-2): Lone win came on turf but has been twice a bridesmaid when racing over an off track; both of those efforts came at this distance 
  3. #5 – Thirst for Truth (3-1): The truth may be this 4 y.o. filly may have issues otherwise why the steep class drop from $40k to $16k when she’s earned a check in every outing; vulnerable favorite IMHO

Race 5

  1. #6 – Durango Kid (2-1): Owner turned over conditioning duties to J. Ness after having success at Haw (2 for 2) with a disastrous outing at CD between; gets leading local rider and second start with blinkers
  2. #4 – Nico Bree N Teej (7-5): Earned diploma in fifth career start with a 93 BRIS#, by far the best of this group; that was 2-months ago but has been training lights out since
  3. #1 – Dial Operator (5-1): Won at first asking from the rail at Mth way back in July when sent off as even money favorite v. NJ-breds, then away from training until Nov. and has since at Bel; trainer Ja. Servis only entry on the card

Race 6

  1. #5 – Daray (9-2): Steps back up to $16kMCL but so did filly (Chancee) who finished a length in front of her in latest, and she won on yesterday’s card; cut back to 5½ furlongs should also work in her favor
  2. #11 – Top Hat Countess (6-1): Couldn’t conquer CT in three tries as a 2 y.o. but showed enough promise to give Lrl a shot as getting an extra furlong might be what she needs to earn diploma  
  3. #10 – Bella Brandi M (6-1): On class relief along owner/breeder should be worried about losing this gal for the $16k tag; has shown very brief speed v. better so she could go gate-to-wire here  

Race 7

  1. #4 – Polar Jet (5-2): Two race win streak at Aqu snapped when facing a salty group of AlwN1x going a 1/16th further than his liking; 1 of 2 on the card for trainer L. Rice looking to improve on her 11% at current meet
  2. #6 – Sky Chaparral (12-1): Trainer M. Shuman must have liked the effort this one gave in AlwN1x first after $11k claim because he brings him right back at same level and retains S. Russell’s services
  3. #2 – Eastern Bay (7-2): Does her best work at this distance over an off track (2 for 2); jock R. Trujillo had choice of mounts and landed here v. #3 (5-1 ML); speed figures have been climbing

Race 8

  1. #2 – Friends of Liberty (5-2): *** BEST BET *** NY shipper for trainer M. Nevin (5 for 13 at the meet), distant runner-up to stakes placed Heavenly Score in latest going 7 panels; with the certainty of an off track (per forecast of 100% chance of rain all afternoon) it makes this gray even tougher (4:3-0-1 on an off track)
  2. #7 – Up Hill Battle (4-1): Got SHOW purse in restricted Polite Stakes in first race off H. McMahon $25k claim; has plenty of early speed to run at late in here plus has never been OTB on an off track (5:2-1-2)  
  3. #3 – Angel At War (4-1): Finally tasted defeat after 6 wins to start career, coming in minor stakes to a buzz saw named Ms Locust Point in which she couldn’t get to early, finding herself in unfamiliar territory (behind horses); look for her to be on the lead here with a threat to go gate-to-wire

Race 9

  1. #6 – Bungalow (6-1): Taking a stab that the addition of blinkers in last one was a big mistake (8th by 15) as well as being stuck on the dead rail; sheds the hood and trainer C. Gonzalez is 28% with beaten favorites
  2. #9 – Summer Run (3-1): 7 lb. bug W. Hamilton takes over for the injured J. Toledo; this gelding belongs at this level based on runner-up and third place efforts in last two; has done well v. better so the talent is there; never OTB on Lrl dirt (5:0-2-3)
  3. #1/1A – One Flashy Cat/Totally Unexpected (5-2): #1 flopped in natural dirt debut after racing 16 times on synthetic at WO and drops from $10k to $5k; #1A is the preferable one that showed some run on dirt, managing minor purses here in last two

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday February 3rd at Laurel had 6 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $11.60 (2nd race), $3.00 (4th), $4.00 (5th), $7.40 (6th), $4.00 (8th) and $4.20 (9th). Top Selections are 44 for 119 (36.97%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (13:4-0-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Triple Black Jack (7th race: 3-1 M/L; 3-1 PT) sped to the early lead but was taken on at the far turn, hugged the inner rail and then faltered in mid-stretch to finish seventh.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (12:3-3-0; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Moonspell (5th race: 10-1 M/L; 5-1 PT) three-wide on the turn, raced between runners in the stretch, could not be separated from a rival for the runner-up award resulting in a DEAD HEAT to return $2.20 to PLACE and $2.60 to SHOW.

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