The GQ Approach – Laurel February 3

by | Feb 3, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,045.75
  • Super High 5None
  • Late Pick 5: None
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Not in for a tag - In many states there is a rule where if a horse last raced 6+ months ago, it can be entered in a race at the same claiming level or higher than its last race WITHOUT having the risk of losing the horse via Claim. It's often a positive sign if a trainer chooses to waive the claiming price - and a negative one if s/he runs for the tag.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 /#1 – Triple Black Jack (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 / #1 – Moonspell (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  4, 5, 7  w/ 3, 4  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  2, 3, 5  w/ 1, 5, 6  w/ 1, 2, 7 ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  1, 2  w/ 1, 3, 4  w/ 1, 8  w/ 3, 7  w/ 7, 8, 9 ($36)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  1, 3, 7  w/ 7, 8 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Sunny but cold, highs in the upper-20s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #7 – Towson (9-5): There was so much inside buzz about this one in her debut… at the bottom ($10k), bet earlu & often (1-1 PT) that it’s mind-boggling she wasn’t claimed; after a rough start she got going too late; wisely comes back a level higher and should graduate against these 
  2. #4 – Donna’s Delight (3-1): Bridesmaid to next out winner two back at this level; jock/trainer scores at a 30% clip
  3. #5 – Janelle Dreams (12-1): Slow improvement in each of her starts but needs to continue down that road while dropping back to $16kMCL

Race 2

  1. #4 – Lady Terp (2-1): Like the hoops team she’s a winner; goes for natural Hat Trick at one mile after prevailing at 1 1/8 miles then 6 furlongs… missed by a length going 7 panels three back all under the guidance of R. Chiappe
  2. #3 – Miss Nosy (8-5): Got beat in latest when prohibitive favorite by top pick in here; traveling an eighth less ground today makes this front runner a gate-to-wire threat
  3. #1 – Star Eighty (5-2): Can give improved effort back at distance and track where she does best work

Race 3

  1. #2 – Kukulkan (5-1): Speed going long then weakening in the stretch may have built some stamina in him to be success in sixth career outing  
  2. #3 – Ghostly Affair (3-1): MD-bred FTS by Maclean’s Music out of a Lite the Fuse mare has a pair of bullets leading up to debut, the latest from the gate; big question… if he’s that good, why in for $10k?
  3. #5 – Love Doctor (9-2): Barn switch prior to latest on the drop doesn’t give one a warm and fuzzy feeling previous trainer shed a tear but change in rider could prove to be a positive       

Race 4

  1. #5 – Sir Bond (1-1): 1 for 1 at Lrl and that came just over 2 years ago going this distance but 9 y.o. gelding hasn’t seen the Winners’ Circle in his last 11 trips out of the Starting Gate in the afternoon, so it appears trainer R. Rodriguez is willing to daggle the carrot dropping from $16k to $5k
  2. #1 – Social Media (7-2): Runner-up after short layoff when sent off 28-1; A. Cruz back in the irons hoping to negotiate a trip well off what has been a dead rail
  3. #6 – Adversary (6-1): Reclaimed for a nickel 45 days ago from KTL who took this gelding for $15k five races prior; trainer R. Sanchez-Salomon is just 1 for 28 at the meet but that one was a bomb ($22.80) first after a claim

Race 5

  1. #1 – Moonspell (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ The ever-popular “third race after layoff” angle; stretches out to a preferable distance to allow his deep closing style a prayer to get up in time as the probable speed duelers (#2 and #3) weaken late
  2. #2 – Icelake (9-5): Game try when second best in first start after S. Lake claim and against N3L group, his best finish in 3 off track tries; look for a better effort on fast track           
  3. #5 – Off Road (7-2): Drop to bottom netted a dominant win and, perhaps, renewed confidence for runner on the step-up

Race 6

  1. #3 – Head Games (5-2): A Foreigner favorite is ML choice here but has only prevailed once when sent off the bettors’ choice; was all out in latest, nearly two months ago against restricted AlwN1x  
  2. #1 – Beautiful Maiden (4-1): Winner at 6 furlong in ’18 debut will try to make it to the wire first for the fourth time in last five efforts while being double-digit odds in all of them
  3. #4 – Prevailing Party (3-1): Picks up hot riding J. Vargas, Jr. (28% for the meet); gets back to two turns where he SHOWed v. similar in first race following maiden breaker

Race 7

  1. #1 – Triple Black Jack (3-1): *** BEST BET *** CT star is no stranger to Lrl but still seeks first local win (7:0-1-4); always leads the way early but rarely carries speed beyond 5 furlongs; so how does he get 6 furlongs here? He’ll get zero pressure early  
  2. #8 – Pomeroy’s Package (4-1): On paper he’s the candidate to press the top pick early but switch to 7 lb. bug W. Hamilton may see him a bit tardy from the gate which has happened in the past
  3. #5 – San Cristo (10-1): OMG… how did this one find his way into the top 3?! OK, maybe it was seeing early speed going long or nice run last time in first race after a layoff

Race 8

  1. #3 – Lewisfield (8-5): Hasn’t done much wrong (5:3-1-1) and seems to be getting better with each start per the 90+ BRIS#s in last three; chance for a A. Bocachicha Double (on #1 in R7)
  2. #7 – Concordia’s Way (9-2): Second best in first start against N2x when sent off 9-5 favorite; J.D. Acosta subs for injured J. Toledo
  3. #1 – Brother Chub (5-2): NJ-bred makes initial start south of Mason-Dixon Line while being on a roll recently at Prx (5:2-3-0); tough break getting the rail but J. Vargas, Jr. is leading jock not by accident

Race 9

  1. #8 – Wedgewood Blue (8-1): Best speed figure of 13 race career came at this 7 furlong distance just two races back; was eased out of latest which many cappers use as a positive angle for next start
  2. #7 – Mazzy Star (20-1): Makes first start in over 4-months and needed the vacation as she made 12 starts in 9-months prior to taking a break; she’s responded to jock K. Francois in the past and might do so again with fresh legs
  3. #9 – Awesome Alma (5-2): It’s been downhill since winning debut at Pen; speed figures have regressed but is the only one in here getting class relief and is saddled by leading trainer C. Gonzalez

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday February 2nd at Laurel had 2 winners from the 3 races on the scheduled 9-race card which was cut short due to “extreme windy conditions” (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.60 (2nd race) and $4.00 (3rd). Top Selections are 42 for 110 (38.18%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (12:4-0-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Persie (7th race: 5-2 M/L) race was canceled due to weather conditions.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (11:3-2-0; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Parapente (8th race: 15-1 M/L) race was canceled due to weather conditions.

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