The GQ Approach – Laurel February 2

by | Feb 2, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,045.75
  • Super High 5None
  • Late Pick 5: None
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey and/or Trainer “upgrade” - When a higher-win-percentage jockey takes the mount over for one “less successful” in his/her trade, the horse may take a step forward. The same goes when a new trainer has a notably better record than the prior trainer.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 /#5 – Persie (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 / #6 – Parapente (15-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 2  w/ 1, 5, 6  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  4, 5, 6  w/ 3, 4, 6  w/ 3, 6, 8 ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  6, 8  w/ 1, 3, 5, 6  w/ 5  w/ 3, 6, 9  w/ 2, 4, 6 ($36)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  3, 5, 6, 9  w/ 4 ($8)

Analysis

  • Weather: Sunny after mixed precipitation in A.M., highs in the upper-20s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: GOOD

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #2 – Shanghai Check (7-2): Has improved in each of his four career efforts all at Prx; continues to stretch out which is what his son of Shanghai Bobby out of a Gulch mare needs
  2. #1 – Maynooth (2-1): Beaten favorite in last two so why should this contest turn out to be any different? Runner-up in last three, his only main track tries of 5 race career thus far; getting a couple extra furlongs here might make the difference
  3. #3 – Real Factor (4-1): Has been part of Trifecta or Superfecta in all four starts while racing evenly; cut back to 7f didn’t help after short layoff; uncoupled stablemate of #1 

Race 2

  1. #1 – Top Prospect (3-1): Goes for natural Hat Trick but will need to overcome the rail; drops off the wins but have no fear, he’s a 10 y.o. who was 6 for 58 prior to his last two wins… would you claim him? 
  2. #5 – Turbin (7-2): Might get the set-up he needs to win as the early pace should be swift enough to help him catch those leg-weary, front running foes late
  3. #6 – Goodbyeseeulater (5-2): Overcame traffic trouble two back to win at this open level but wasn’t as fortunate when sent off PT favorite on step up as top pick got the best of him

Race 3

  1. #5 – Reciprocity (9-5): Imagine claiming a first-time starter for $25k and seeing it run dead last, throughout, finishing 60-lengths behind the winner; kudos to Kieron that two races later he SHOWed for half that tag as runner-up graduated in next outing; drops to bottom for diploma
  2. #4 – Diamond Junior (9-2): Three-time runner-up from seven starts drops back to bottom level where he failed miserably; counting on conditioner S. Lake to have figured out what makes him tick
  3. #6 – Lucky Kick (7-2): Blinkers On for L. Gaudet runners have provided positive ROI over the past couple years but first time stretching out… not so much (0 for 9); regardless late kick in the stretch in debut gives hope

Race 4

  1. #3 – Socially Driven (1-1): Last time this gal was top pick here, she disappointed as favorite at The Big T; goes for third straight trip to Winners’ Circle; runner-up to her in latest came back to win
  2. #4 – I Just Wanna Win (9-2): Don’t we all?! She has done her fair share of it (11 for 31) and has been part of Exacta in all 8 efforts at this distance 
  3. #6 – Staff Sgt. Reckless (8-1): Recent running lines say “No” but like the jock switch to S. Russell (21% w/ H. McMahon at meet) in spite of another class drop after sub-par performance after short layoff

Race 5

  1. #8 – Premier Event (6-1): Only in America would a $300k purchase as a weanling debut for $16k at Lrl, had a rough trip as 1-1 fav, claimed and wheeled back for $40k getting a worse trip; got a quintet of works including 6f; second start with blinkers
  2. #6 – Bad Angle Burke (5-1): Third start could be the charm, all at this level shows connections confidence… or stubbornness; MD-bred should relish opportunity to cover more ground
  3. #3 – Stunning Baby (5-1): Straight out of a Seinfeld episode, was a Vet Scratch 2 weeks ago when entered for $16k; comes back today at higher/same level he SHOWed in Dec.; BRIS#s have improved with each outing        

Race 6

  1. #3 – Dance Or Stroll (7-2): Two fourth-place efforts v. better following claim at this (lower) level makes one believe this filly is primed for second trip to Winners’ Circle
  2. #1 – Prank Call (3-1): Quick from the gate and will need to be with rail assignment; 3 worst races of her 7 have come in only 3 at Lrl; Hmmm… could be a vulnerable favorite
  3. #5 – Lucky Stiff (4-1): Winner of two lifetime, both on the front end so look for her to try get the first call but at what cost as there are at least two others who have early foot

Race 7

  1. #5 – Persie (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Drops from open $7,500 claimers in $5k conditional event; should get the early lead w/o much pressure as J.D. Acosta will pilot this Street Sense gelding who enjoys two turns  
  2. #1/1A – Squashville Road/Tequila Hero (4-1): #1 exits $5kN3L victory albeit at CT but has finished ahead of #2 in here; #1A once was better than new stablemate but carbon copy races (5th by 11) since arriving from FL appears he’s off form 
  3. #2 – Horseshoe Harbour (5-1): Might be asking too much to come back in just 6 days after conquering N3L condition going 9 panels; seems to give 100% when he feels like it based on PPs

Race 8

  1. #6 – Parapente (15-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ KY/home-bred daughter of K One King out of a Cape Canaveral mare has had others be very competitive in debut for trainer K. Rubley; love the workout pattern
  2. #3 – More Better (15-1): Got up for the SHOW purse in debut when 5-1 and 5+ behind winner who came back to win again; trainer J. Egan looking to break an 0 for 19 with runners coming off 46-90 day layoff
  3. #9 – Sugar Curls (9-2): Torn between this FTS by Curlin out of a Henny Hughes mare being shipped in from NY by trainer L. Rice and #5 – Awesome Forever (12-1), a House (Stronach) Horse by Awesome Again out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare making debut in a wide open MSW affair  

Race 9

  1. #4 – Wildly Clever (6-1): Beaten favorite after dueling early when turned back to 7f; can excuse the fact jock knew she was toast and saved her for another day… which is today, stretching out to two turns as she did two back, her career best effort
  2. #6 – Dear Charlotte (12-1): Filly is Ouch for 21 plus will be facing the boys in here; best finish came at this level just three races back and last time she went two turns; faced $10kN2L in latest and only lost by 3 1/2 lengths
  3. #2 – Alpha Team (7-5): Trainer/owner D. Jacobson ships in from NY this 10-time loser and willing to take a bath by offering this 5 y.o. for $10k after paying $40k 4-months ago; Caveat emptor

YESTERDAY’S NEWS

  • On Sunday January 28th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 9-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.40 (1st race), $6.60 (2nd), $6.20 (4th), $4.40 (5th), $5.60 (6th), $7.20 (7th) and $7.60 (9th). Top Selections are 40 for 107 (37.38%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (12:4-0-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Mila Jane (4th race: 5-2 M/L; 2-1 PT) in a bit close after the break, dropped well off the early pace, angled out leaving the far turn and gathered momentum, progressed four-wide nearing the lane, altered in and split rivals leaving the quarter pole, lodged a bid to the inside of the leader past the three-sixteenths, took over soon after, sparred then slowly went clear under a drive on her left lead to win by one-and-quarter-lengths to return $6.20 to WIN, $3.80 to PLACE and $3.00 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (11:3-2-0; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Just Been Jammin (3rd race: 12-1 M/L; 21-1 PT) unseated the rider when stumbling badly at the break.

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