The GQ Approach – Laurel January 28

by | Jan 28, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6$1,418.00
  • Super High 5$2,346.54
  • Late Pick 5: None
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
First Time Starter - A decently-bred horse from a good barn showing a consistent (every 6-7 days) work pattern with the last one from the gate can be a good bet.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 4 /#6 – Mila Jane (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 3 / #2 – Just Been Jammin (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 2, 5  w/ 4, 6  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  2, 4, 6  w/ 6  w/ 1, 2, 3, 6 ($6)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  1, 2 w/ 3, 5, 7  w/ 1, 4 w/ 1, 5, 7  w/ 1, 6 ($36)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  1, 5, 7  w/ 6 ($6)

Analysis

  • Weather: Cloudy with rain, highs in the low-50s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: SLOPPY

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #2 – Porte Cochere (3-1): Liked her last time when she didn’t fire v. open $15k Claimers, sticking with her on a multi-class drop for trainer C. Gonzalez who is 26% with that angle
  2. #1/1A – Crystal Pier/Carolina Gold (7-2): Same owner, different trainers with two jocks listed… only mount on the card for both; #1 has never been OTB at this distance and at Lrl; #1A likes an off track (6: 2-2-0)
  3. #5 – Esken Lady (15-1): One of two in here for trainer J. Corrales, the other (#3) should be prominent early while stablemate comes off an unaspiring two turn affair but retains services of E. Trujillo

Race 2

  1. #6 – Faire Mi (3-1): Had no business running in OC$25k in latest outing; returns to level where she’s been successful albeit at Pen and Del
  2. #4 – Tiz Madness (2-1): Been popular at the Claiming Box as she’s changed hands in 3 of her last 4 outings; beaten lukewarm favorite in latest drops to a more realistic level for Lrl debut
  3. #5 – Fleur de Force (7-2): A 6-time winner this 4-year-old will take advantage of this condition (4 y.o. v. older N3L) one last time (ends in January); steps up in first start off $5k claim but can still get it done

Race 3

  1. #2 – Just Been Jammin (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Pure condition play here as this geldings last three have been against open claimers while all others in here been knocking heads in conditional $5k events; jock/trainer combo is 28% over the past year
  2. #6 – Apollo Landing (5-1): Goes for the natural Hat Trick after conquering CT bull-ring in 3 of last 4 outings; 2 for 4 lifetime over an off track
  3. #4 – Risky Guy (9-2): Have lost more money backing this 8-year-old over the past 6-months than Bitcoin investors of late; BRIS#s have been climbing but just one ITM finish in last three; added distance should help

Race 4

  1. #6 – Mila Jane (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Romped by 7-lengths in the Lrl mud over the #2 and #8 in here just 16 days ago; no reason to believe this filly cannot repeat that feat
  2. #8 – Shecor (6-1): Claimed out of latest when 10-lengths behind top pick as 7-5 favorite; change of scenery but same jock (F. Boyce) could help make amends
  3. #7 – Youarestillthewon (12-1): Hasn’t run well against better since breaking maiden three back but trainer R. Vega (6:3-0-0 at Lrl meet) will give a leg up to H. Caballero (24% w/ trainer past year)

Race 5

  1. #1 – Dukin’ With Dale (7-5): Worthy 7-5 ML favorite gets an added bonus… an off track (8:3-3-0); is 11 for 12 ITM at this distance; only concern is it seems the rail is once again not the place to be
  2. #2 – Malibu Sunset (2-1): Sent off as the Post Time favorite in last 7 starts but only got to the Winners’ Circle twice; the quickest of the speed in here but will be dogged throughout
  3. #6 – Troubled Waters (6-1): Likely beneficiary of a potential pace meltdown as 3 of his 5 rivals are “need the lead” types; 0 for 19 on a fast track but thankfully it will be “off” (11:2-2-2)

Race 6

  1. #3 – Intrepid Forest (8-1): Claimed for a nickel in latest, a 4-length score for her fifth win in 13 starts; this 4-year-old gets to enjoy one last race in with older N3L so she better make the most of it because it will be tough sledding the remainder of her career
  2. #5 – Dixie Rose (5-1): Sub-par effort when 3rd while finally getting a clean trip, her first in her last four efforts; 7 lb. bug W. Hamilton who won two yesterday gets the call
  3. #7 – Miss Krivoruchka (5-2): Will be mixing it up early with top pick but could outlast that one due to having best last race BRIS# and getting S. Russell in the irons (21% for trainer H. McMahon)

Race 7

  1. #4 – Southside Warrior (9-5): OTB at this level when 3-5 Post Time favorite in latest following fifth-place effort in restricted stakes; seeks first win at Lrl (4:0-2-0); now trying to figure out why he’s top pick?! Oh… BRIS Prime Power# towers over this field and was gelded after that Jan. 12th race?!
  2. #1/1A – Spirit Grabber/Prime Time Man (7-2): Same owner, different trainers but both are stepping up in class; #1 will carry the load based on PT odds but entrymate is first off K. Magee claim (23%) who is 25% when going sprint-to-route
  3. #5 – Apolodorodedamasco (20-1): Will be first time going two turns on main surface and should like it based on “plodding along” type running lines in sprints; though just 3:0-0-1 on off track, those were going 5½f while rallying late

Race 8

  1. #1 – Irish Colonel (7-2): Even from the dreaded rail can make a sweeping move late; regular rider J. Bisono makes trip down from PA to ride; had rough trip in stakes debut when seventh at 28-1
  2. #7 – Showalter (6-1): Lightly raced 5-year-old has the potential to steal it on the front end as he did over two years ago in debut over a muddy Lrl strip; shouldn’t get much pressure early but has always been desperate carrying that speed 6 furlongs
  3. #5 – Even Thunder (10-1): Away since late June after a hit or miss 3-year-old season that saw him earn black type in the G3 Bay Shore; been working steadily since mid-Nov; if he’s well-meant today he’ll be nowhere near his 10-1 ML comes PT

Race 9

  1. #6 – Union Blues (3-1): A K. Magee reclaim two back for $10k yet brought this gelding back for a nickel (actually offered for $4,500) and was clear runner-up as PT favorite; gets 3/16 more ground which should help but still available at the discounted rate
  2. #1 – Ogeechee (7-2): Beat top pick in latest but that was going 5½ furlongs; stamina is a question for this 4-year-old, 4-time winner eligible in this N3L condition; 1 for 1 on an off track
  3. #10 – Mischievous Dan (15-1): Another 4-year-old who has been to Winners’ Circle 3-times who comes on the scene late; rough start in latest after being beaten favorite two back, both at this level

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday January 27th at Laurel had 9 winners from the 10-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $15.40 (1st race), $5.20 (2nd), $23.00 (3rd), $3.20 (4th), $4.80 (5th), $6.40 (6th), $4.00 (7th), $7.00 (8th) and $20.80 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R3-R5 50 cent Pick-3 paid $49.10 (cost: $13.50). Top Selections are 36 for 98 (36.73%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (11:3-0-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Baleroom Dancer (10th race: 9-2 M/L; 3-1 PT) cleared early inside, was joined after a furlong and dueled, kept up the fight to the head of the lane then faded to finish fifth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (10:3-2-0; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Mutaraabit (3rd race: 5-1 M/L; 1-1 PT) bobbled at the break, worked between horses in the stretch and passed tired ones to finish fourth.

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