The GQ Approach – Laurel January 27

by | Jan 27, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6$329.01
  • Super High 5None
  • Late Pick 5: None
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Not in for a tag - In many states there is a rule where if a horse last raced 6+ months ago, it can be entered in a race at the same claiming level or higher than its last race WITHOUT having the risk of losing the horse via Claim. It's often a positive sign if a trainer chooses to waive the claiming price - and a negative one if s/he runs for the tag.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 10 /#2 – Baleroom Dancer (9-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 3 / #7 – Mutaraabit (5-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  6, 7  w/ 1, 5, 6  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  4, 7, 8  w/ 1, 3, 7  w/ 2, 3, 6 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-5  3, 4, 9  w/ 2, 5  w/ 3, 6, 8  w/ 3, 7  w/ 2, 3, 5 ($54)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double  3, 7, 8  w/ 2, 5 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny with highs in the upper-50s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #6 – Howyaformoney (3-1): Hey sports fans, the Lrl surface has begun to favor early speed so that’s the theme of the entire card analysis starting with this class dropper whose been on the early lead thru the second call his last 4 dirt races
  2. #7 – Can’tmakethisup (5-2): Seems to be a candidate to bottom wheel in the Tri as he’s SHOWed in his last four outings at this level; just 1 of 2 inn here to have raced 9 furlongs and has best finish
  3. #4 – Horseshoe Harbour (5-1): Can run all day and gets first crack stretching out to 1 1/8 miles on the dirt; gets 5lb. relief with bug boy L. Rodriguez back in the irons

Race 2

  1. #1 – Life’s a Gamble (7-2): KY-bred gray daughter of Malibu Moon out of a Holy Bull mare cost a cool $135k in ’16 at the F-T Tim yearling sale; she appears primed for a successful debut for trainer/jock combo winning at a 30% clip over the past year
  2. #5 – Malibu Surprise (5-2): No threat in debut when sent off 4-1 going 7 panels for trainer G. Motion whose name alone causes this one to draw Program Second Choice label
  3. #6 – Blue Union Rags (4-1): Trainer J. Servis is desperately trying to find what makes this $335k yearling purchase tick as she’s only managed two third-place finishes in two dirt surface starts

Race 3

  1. #7 – Mutaraabit (5-1): Shadwell Stables KY/home-bred son of Medaglia d’Oro out of a Distorted Humor mare makes debut at age 4 with a lengthy work tab for trainer M. Pino who is due to get back to the Lrl Winners’ Circle (1 for 21 this meet)
  2. #8 – Dreamliner (15-1): Returns to Lrl after a trio of turf tries at Tam without hitting the board; has shown early speed in all 3 dirt races at mid-distances in MSW events
  3. #4 – Zap Cat (3-1): Should be more forwardly placed coming off 6 furlong jaunt; best results have been on turf and synthetic north of the border; too much to ask to win in start #19?       

Race 4

  1. #7 – Wild Dreams (2-1): Been with four different trainers while racing at six different venues in just eight starts; BRIS Prime Power is tops in here
  2. #3 – In Arrears (5-2): Too much talent to be just 2 for 17; even change of scenery to a different trainer didn’t help, though two runner-up finishes have been an improvement
  3. #1 – Pistol Posse (8-1): Capable at a price as last 4 have been on an off track as last fast track performance resulted in a gate-to-wire win

Race 5 is the $100k Marshua Stakes

  1. #3 – Limited View (2-1): 4-time winner from 6 starts just didn’t have it in latest when breaking from dead rail; HOF rider E. Prado leaves GP to retain mount, that’s how much he believes in her  
  2. #2 – Enrage (9-5): Algorithms filly continues to race without Lasix has she improves with each outing; runner-up in Gin Talking stakes in local bow
  3. #6 – Last True Love (10-1): Pen-based runner threw in the towel early when roughed at the start in latest; is better than that and bullet work since is proof

Race 6

  1. #4 – Child’s Play (3-1): Claimed out of 15-length maiden score two back; trainer C. Gonzalez wins w/ 34% in their second start under his conditioning; bridesmaid in latest while having to steady and lose momentum at the half
  2. #3 – Cherryandthehawk (7-2): Graduated in latest, her third start as the distance increased with each race; earned best BRIS# of this group which was just 8 days ago… could bounce
  3. #9 – Vente to Go (7-2): Beaten favorite finally gets an outside post after breaking from inside Post #3 in all five career starts but her lack of early speed may be too much to overcome on a track favoring those with early foot

Race 7 is the $100k Native Dancer Stakes

  1. #2 – Afleet Willy (7-5): Certainly is a threat to be on the engine early; got roughed up in sprint stakes when sent off favorite; at his best when going two turns (5:3-2-0)
  2. #4 – John Jones (8-5): Recaptured old form in last outing, winning the restricted Jennings; 1 of 2 mounts on the card for E. Prado, up from GP today; waters get deeper in this open stakes
  3. #6 — Monongahela (8-1): Formful sort has been in the exacta nine straight

Race 8 is the $100k Frank Whiteley, Jr. Stakes

  1. #3 – Still Having Fun (5-2): Bet like a good thing in debut and ran like one in impressive fashion; came back to get beat a big price (21-1; #1 in here) in MD Juv. Futurity but earned nice speed fig
  2. #6 – V. I.P. Code (12-1): City Zip colt did well sprinting in first four starts of career (4:2-1-1) but trying 9 furlongs in G2 Remsen at Aqu was ill-advised; there’s plenty of speedy sprinters in here stretching out to catch late
  3. #8 – Wentz (2-1): Like namesake been on the sideline, this one since Thanksgiving when a gate to wire maiden winner in second start going this distance at Prx; boasts top BRIS Prime Power#

Race 9 is the $100k Nellie Morse Stakes

  1. #3 – Julerette (2-1): Kee-based runner for trainer B. Colebrook makes first start after 2-month layoff and fourth straight trip to Winners’ Circle
  2. #7 – Line of Best Fit (5-1): Getting a “Do Over” after dumbing jock at start of Thirty Eight Go Go here 3 weeks ago while making third start after layoff and since switching to meets leading trainer (C. Gonzalez)
  3. #8 – In the Navy Now (10-1): Seemed to have a case of Seconditis until gutty out a win in latest; gives 110% in every start; been ITM last 15 starts

Race 10

  1. #2 – Baleroom Dancer (9-2): *** BEST BET *** Been quick from the gate with A. Cruz aboard in last two, catches a field that lacks early foot so cut back to 5½ furlongs on a surface that favored early speed yesterday makes this one logical pick
  2. #5 – Wildcat Gaze (5-2): Toss latest when in against a salty Starter Alw group; has two wins from 10 starts at distance but have a gut feeling bug boy W. Hamilton won’t have him near early lead  
  3. #3 – Ermine and Purrs (6-1): Rider switch to J.D. Acosta (1 for 2 w/ trainer) could wake this one up to the point of being closer earlier; has run behind #5 in last two but could surprise as all 3 career wins have come at this distance

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday January 26th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 9-race card (5 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $7.00 (2nd race), $6.80 (2nd), $6.40 (4th), $6.00 (5th), $4.00 (6th), $8.40 (8th) and $7.00 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R3-R5 50 cent Pick-3 paid $15.70 (cost: $9). Top Selections are 32 for 88 (36.36%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (10:3-0-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Cent Comm (1st race: 5-2 M/L; 2-1 PT) Joined three rivals on the early pace while in hand, two-wide, gained a short lead entering the stretch when set down for the drive but flattened out in the stretch to finish third and return $2.60 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (9:3-2-0; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) She Rolls (8th race: 6-1 M/L; 2-1 PT) sped off to the early lead facing pressure to her outside from the far turn, dug in between rivals when challenged at the eigth pole, shook the one to her outside but could not hold off the other to finish one-length behind the winner and return $3.20 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.

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