The GQ Approach – Laurel January 21

by | Jan 21, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6$10,290.05
  • Super High 5$562.01
  • Late Pick 5: None
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Lightbulb Theory - When a horse finally breaks maiden after repeated failures, the lightbulb in his/her head may have come on and s/he may run very well in her next race, too.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 9 /#4 – Wildly Clever (7-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 / #3 – Torch of Truth (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 4  w/ 2, 4, 6  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  9  w/ 1, 6, 7  w/ 1, 4, 7 ($13.50)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  2, 5, 7  w/ 4 ($6)

Analysis

  • Weather: Cloudy with highs in the low-50s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #4 – Fleur de Force (5-2): Five-time winner has the class edge in this lifetime group, shifts into productive Magee barn
  2. #1 – Classy Scarlett (10-1): Thrashed never-two rivals last out in first dirt try, owns right to run well again here in second off break
  3. #5 – La La Bamba (2-1): Favorite makes first start for fall meet leader C. Gonzalez but recent tries — albeit against better — make short odds tough to stomach 

Race 2

  1. #6 – Super Vision (6-1): Should be rolling late and owns win at this trip over the strip
  2. #2 – Johnny Action (7-2): Won at higher level to break maiden two back, inclined to give another chance here after poor last out   
  3. #5 — Old Dude (4-1): Drops after getting gelded while finding lowest level yet

Race 3

  1. #3 – County Club (9-2): Lightly raced sort drops after getting cooked in the early speed last out versus better; can improve here
  2. #2 – Majestic Pic (8-1): Shortening up from seven furlongs should help D. Barr trainee recapture better form 
  3. #7 – Honey Bun (10-1): Speedy sort should appreciate shortening up after credible first try vs. winners

Race 4

  1. #7 – Deal Driven (8-5): Best figs and looks to be controlling speed; outer post the only concern, but not one to scoff at: outer posts struggle at LRL at 8.5f distance with short run-up to turn
  2. #1 – Absolute Pinnacle (6-1): Absolutely disastrous trip in last when second a step down; look for another good one here 
  3. #6 – Rare Candy (4-1): Drops from better and isn’t too far removed from efforts that would dominate this group; tough to ignore Gonzalez trainees in any circumstance     

Race 5

  1. #1 – Lost On the Stairs (7-5): Third after a tough trip in last and gets top jock Toledo in the irons
  2. #4 – Go Jamie Go (2-1): Sports a couple of fast works in preparation and has acquitted herself just fine in two prior dirt tries             
  3. #7 – Issue a Warrant (8-1): Trainer Gorham is 3-22 with debut MCL types in recent years, and most of this crowd is not daunting

Race 6

  1. #3 – Torch of Truth (8-1): Credible debut when hesitating at the start, and among his interim works was a bullet half-mile from the gate; normal second-race improvement might do the trick here
  2. #8 – Paid Holiday (3-1): Improved effort in last and like to see trainer M. Trombetta keep this runner at the same level; go-to pilot Pimentel stays aboard
  3. #5 – Treetop Flyer (6-1): Return to MCL company should yield improved effort here

Race 7

  1. #1 – Louies Flower (4-1): Not 100% sure about cutback to six furlongs, but everything else about this runner entices; strong effort last out when running gamely on the worst part of the track to be runner-up, and winner followed up with second-place effort in N1X
  2. #8 – The Great Provider (4-1): First time out for runner in L. Gaudet barn, which scores at 30%-plus first off the claim; does best work on turf but was third versus roughly similar on main track in last
  3. #7 Classic Wildcat (6-1): 28-time winner has won three straight and four of five and shows no signs of slowing down at age 12; owns 19 wins at the distance

Race 8

  1. #7 – Deep Red  (9-2): Astute claim by D. Dilodovico stepped up to run second in Md-bred stake in last, owns win and second at the trip  
  2. #5 – Pikachu Princess (7-2): Just missed against similar last out and has been second in four of seven starts
  3. #10 – Hercatwillfoolu (8-1): Nothing wrong with last out runner-up try vs. multiple stake winner Limited View; only concern here is the lengthy layoff

Race 9

  1. #4 – Wildly Clever (7-2): In-between distance might be just what the doctor ordered for a runner who looks like he’s sitting on a win
  2. #5 – Archie’s Revenge (10-1): Finally finds lowest level after toiling with minimal success versus better
  3. #9 – My Pal Jerry (9-2): Deep closer more likely to get a minor share but figures to be sniffing around at the end

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday January 19th at Laurel had 5 winners from the 8-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $8.80 (2nd race), $5.40 (4th), $9.00 (6th), $2.20 (8th), and $12.40 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R8-R9 $2 Double paid $21.60 (cost: $12). Top Selections are 20 for 70 (28.57%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (8:3-0-2; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Chancee (9th race: 2-1 M/L; 9-5 PT) was five wide on the turn and did not have sufficient rally, settling for fourth, beaten by 8 1/2 lengths.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (7:2-1-0; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Much Maligned (3rd race) was scratched.

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