The GQ Approach – Laurel January 19

by | Jan 19, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $5,980.03
  • Super High 5: no carryover
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Off-track Record - When the track gets listed as sloppy, muddy, or good, bettors often fail to realize many horses perform better or worse versus racing on a track labeled as “fast."
Best Bet of the Day
Race 4 /#4 – Cherryandthehawk (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 / #4 – To the Flag (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 6, 7, 9  w/ 5  ($8)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  2, 4, 7  w/ 3, 4, 9  w/ 4, 6, 7 ($13.50)
  • Race 4 – 50 cent Pick-5  4, 9  w/ 4, 6, 7  w/ 1A, 2, 5, 9  w/ 4  w/ 8, 9 ($24)
  • Race 7 – $2 Double  3, 4  w/ 4, 8, 9 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny with highs in the upper-40s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #7 – Bay of Sighs (7-2): Huge but appropriate drop as both career outings against top level maidens surely caused many “sighs” among the connections as this filly was never close
  2. #9 – Donna’s Delight (9-2): Showed in improved in second start with blinkers in latest being a distant bridesmaid to a next out winner; drops one level but so does the rest this group and more
  3. #6 – Forgotten Heritage (3-1): Second career start, first came on turf at GPW when a disappointing SHOW finisher at 3-2 odds; makes first start for L. Gaudet (13%) w/ blinkers added (20%)

Race 2

  1. #5 – Chapel of Chimes (3-5): Tough to take a stand against this gal who destroyed similar by nearly 10-lengths in latest, showing some of her back class and saw runner-up come back to win, then again it doesn’t take an Einstein to tout her at these paltry odds 
  2. #1 – Workerbee (4-1): One of many trainer G. Brooks shipped from Pid to FG only to ship to MD in hopes of regaining form at the bottom level; jock L. Garcia/Brooks have won at 28% over the past year
  3. #2 – On the List (10-1): Ascending BRIS# while being off-the-board as extreme longshot may indicate continued progress to get a bigger share

Race 3

  1. #7 – Awesome Alma (9-5): Trainer C. Gonzalez gets 31% of runners to Winners’ Circle first time stretching them out to a route; beaten favorite has bloodlines to relish more distance  
  2. #2 – Saturday’s Rein (9-2): Can boast best BRIS# but that came over 2 years old at Pim in second career start; took 15 tries to get first win (two back) and was a game second in next outing; like that Elvis is back aboard
  3. #4 – Vicky Queen (7-5): First start after claim way back in Sept. at GP, logged one work at CT in Nov. then next one came at Lrl 2 months later; trainer K. Cartagena is 20% in 1st after claim but feeling it at 7-5 ML odds

Race 4

  1. #4 – Cherryandthehawk (2-1): *** BEST BET *** If the third time is a charm then today should be graduation day for this El Padrino filly who rallied in the stretch in both starts and gets more distance in second start with blinkers
  2. #9 – Spring Run (8-1): Not a bad debut breaking from the rail when sent off 19-1 yet finished less than three-lengths behind winner; any improvement makes her a threat to reach wire first    
  3. #3 – Violent Fit (12-1): Dull effort when sent off 2-1 in second start at this distance here two back; returns to Lrl after useless trip to Aqu to face NY-breds; needs to reverse trend of falling BRIS#s

Race 5

  1. #4 – To the Flag (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Clipped heels and checked twice along rail on far turn, dropped back then finished well to get minor share in latest at this level, behind #5 (7-2) and #6 (4-1) by just a few lengths; look for jock C. Cedeno to have this mare more forwardly placed to get a clean trip
  2. #7 – Lemon Lover (7-5): Might be vulnerable as she was scratched last Monday as stronger POE though stablemate was a game runner-up; this 5-year-old Cash Cow is available for $15k tag
  3. #6 – Porte Cochere (4-1): Rough trip when trying to win fourth in a row, second at this level on cut back from 7 to 5½ furlongs, settling for the SHOW spot

Race 6

  1. #5 – Velocita Brillante (7-2): Just missed when overtaken in deep stretch going 6 furlongs; cut back to 5½ should help chances to earn diploma in third race after brief layoff 
  2. #9 – Sirius Love (6-1): MD-bred FTS by Eskendereya out of a Not for Love mare shows a plethora of evenly spaced A.M. works perfectly leading up to today’s debut; like the last one… a bullet from the gate
  3. #2 – Belle ‘n Tonic (6-1): Away since debut in July when rallying late to grab SHOW purse behind Sagamore winner who finally won against winners when dropped in for $25k tag last week; like the jock assignment but leery about lack of published work since Dec. 19th

Race 7

  1. #4 – Bridget’s Big Luvy (9-5): Earned a career best 100 BRIS# in his runner-up effort in the restricted Jennings stakes 3 weeks ago in third race after layoff; hoping to avoid a bounce
  2. #3 – Final Prospect (7-2): 3 for 33 doesn’t give one a warm and fuzzy feeling for the prospects (no pun intended) of this gelding getting to the wire first even though he should get an ideal stalking trip behind the #1 and #4
  3. #5 – Bodhisattva (12-1): Runs big when you least expect it; today might be one of those races as one turn races in his last two are not his style, especially sprints; pace scenario sets up for him

Race 8

  1. #8 – Looks Like Simon (9-5): Drop from $25k to $16kMCL and the addition of blinkers seems to have done the trick to wake-up this Eddington colt as he’s been runner-up in both last two; cut back from 7 furlongs makes it graduation day 
  2. #9 – Zephyr Train (9-2): Finished well ahead of top pick but that was 3 races back before that one’s equipment change; takes multi-class drop after stopping along dead rail v. $40kMCL
  3. #4 – Greeleys Copy (8-1): Makes fifth career start at fourth different venue, third different trainer as W. Potts got this Christmas “gift” after two bullets at CT following no activity in nearly 3 months; gate-to-wire threat at a price 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS

  • On Monday January 15th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $4.80 (1st race), $7.00 (2nd), $11.20 (3rd), $6.60 (4th), $8.80 (5th) and $4.40 (6th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 Double paid $20.60 (cost: $8) and the R3-R5 50 cent Pick-3 paid $48.95 (cost: $13.50). Top Selections are 15 for 54 (27.78%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (6:2-0-2; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Tiz Surprised (6th race: 3-1 M/L; 3-1 PT) sluggish early, circled six-wide into the lane, offered a mild late response and just got up for the show to return $2.60 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (6:2-1-0; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Postino’s Secret (5th race: 6-1 M/L; 4-1 PT) four wide both turns, rallied gamely in the stretch, drifted in near the sixteenth pole to be much the second best to return $4.80 to PLACE and $3.60 to SHOW.

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