The GQ Approach – Laurel January 19

by | Jan 19, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $5,980.03
  • Super High 5: no carryover
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Exits a “Key” Race - A “key” race is one where two or more horses came back to win in their next race, and horses coming out of the races often ran better than the figs might suggest.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 4 /#4 – Cherryandthehawk (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 / #4 – To the Flag (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 6, 7, 9  w/ 5  ($8)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  2, 4, 7  w/ 3, 4, 9  w/ 4, 6, 7 ($13.50)
  • Race 4 – 50 cent Pick-5  4, 9  w/ 4, 6, 7  w/ 1A, 2, 5, 9  w/ 4  w/ 8, 9 ($24)
  • Race 7 – $2 Double  3, 4  w/ 4, 8, 9 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny with highs in the upper-40s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #7 – Bay of Sighs (7-2): Huge but appropriate drop as both career outings against top level maidens surely caused many “sighs” among the connections as this filly was never close
  2. #9 – Donna’s Delight (9-2): Showed in improved in second start with blinkers in latest being a distant bridesmaid to a next out winner; drops one level but so does the rest this group and more
  3. #6 – Forgotten Heritage (3-1): Second career start, first came on turf at GPW when a disappointing SHOW finisher at 3-2 odds; makes first start for L. Gaudet (13%) w/ blinkers added (20%)

Race 2

  1. #5 – Chapel of Chimes (3-5): Tough to take a stand against this gal who destroyed similar by nearly 10-lengths in latest, showing some of her back class and saw runner-up come back to win, then again it doesn’t take an Einstein to tout her at these paltry odds 
  2. #1 – Workerbee (4-1): One of many trainer G. Brooks shipped from Pid to FG only to ship to MD in hopes of regaining form at the bottom level; jock L. Garcia/Brooks have won at 28% over the past year
  3. #2 – On the List (10-1): Ascending BRIS# while being off-the-board as extreme longshot may indicate continued progress to get a bigger share

Race 3

  1. #7 – Awesome Alma (9-5): Trainer C. Gonzalez gets 31% of runners to Winners’ Circle first time stretching them out to a route; beaten favorite has bloodlines to relish more distance  
  2. #2 – Saturday’s Rein (9-2): Can boast best BRIS# but that came over 2 years old at Pim in second career start; took 15 tries to get first win (two back) and was a game second in next outing; like that Elvis is back aboard
  3. #4 – Vicky Queen (7-5): First start after claim way back in Sept. at GP, logged one work at CT in Nov. then next one came at Lrl 2 months later; trainer K. Cartagena is 20% in 1st after claim but feeling it at 7-5 ML odds

Race 4

  1. #4 – Cherryandthehawk (2-1): *** BEST BET *** If the third time is a charm then today should be graduation day for this El Padrino filly who rallied in the stretch in both starts and gets more distance in second start with blinkers
  2. #9 – Spring Run (8-1): Not a bad debut breaking from the rail when sent off 19-1 yet finished less than three-lengths behind winner; any improvement makes her a threat to reach wire first    
  3. #3 – Violent Fit (12-1): Dull effort when sent off 2-1 in second start at this distance here two back; returns to Lrl after useless trip to Aqu to face NY-breds; needs to reverse trend of falling BRIS#s

Race 5

  1. #4 – To the Flag (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Clipped heels and checked twice along rail on far turn, dropped back then finished well to get minor share in latest at this level, behind #5 (7-2) and #6 (4-1) by just a few lengths; look for jock C. Cedeno to have this mare more forwardly placed to get a clean trip
  2. #7 – Lemon Lover (7-5): Might be vulnerable as she was scratched last Monday as stronger POE though stablemate was a game runner-up; this 5-year-old Cash Cow is available for $15k tag
  3. #6 – Porte Cochere (4-1): Rough trip when trying to win fourth in a row, second at this level on cut back from 7 to 5½ furlongs, settling for the SHOW spot

Race 6

  1. #5 – Velocita Brillante (7-2): Just missed when overtaken in deep stretch going 6 furlongs; cut back to 5½ should help chances to earn diploma in third race after brief layoff 
  2. #9 – Sirius Love (6-1): MD-bred FTS by Eskendereya out of a Not for Love mare shows a plethora of evenly spaced A.M. works perfectly leading up to today’s debut; like the last one… a bullet from the gate
  3. #2 – Belle ‘n Tonic (6-1): Away since debut in July when rallying late to grab SHOW purse behind Sagamore winner who finally won against winners when dropped in for $25k tag last week; like the jock assignment but leery about lack of published work since Dec. 19th

Race 7

  1. #4 – Bridget’s Big Luvy (9-5): Earned a career best 100 BRIS# in his runner-up effort in the restricted Jennings stakes 3 weeks ago in third race after layoff; hoping to avoid a bounce
  2. #3 – Final Prospect (7-2): 3 for 33 doesn’t give one a warm and fuzzy feeling for the prospects (no pun intended) of this gelding getting to the wire first even though he should get an ideal stalking trip behind the #1 and #4
  3. #5 – Bodhisattva (12-1): Runs big when you least expect it; today might be one of those races as one turn races in his last two are not his style, especially sprints; pace scenario sets up for him

Race 8

  1. #8 – Looks Like Simon (9-5): Drop from $25k to $16kMCL and the addition of blinkers seems to have done the trick to wake-up this Eddington colt as he’s been runner-up in both last two; cut back from 7 furlongs makes it graduation day 
  2. #9 – Zephyr Train (9-2): Finished well ahead of top pick but that was 3 races back before that one’s equipment change; takes multi-class drop after stopping along dead rail v. $40kMCL
  3. #4 – Greeleys Copy (8-1): Makes fifth career start at fourth different venue, third different trainer as W. Potts got this Christmas “gift” after two bullets at CT following no activity in nearly 3 months; gate-to-wire threat at a price 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS

  • On Monday January 15th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $4.80 (1st race), $7.00 (2nd), $11.20 (3rd), $6.60 (4th), $8.80 (5th) and $4.40 (6th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 Double paid $20.60 (cost: $8) and the R3-R5 50 cent Pick-3 paid $48.95 (cost: $13.50). Top Selections are 15 for 54 (27.78%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (6:2-0-2; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Tiz Surprised (6th race: 3-1 M/L; 3-1 PT) sluggish early, circled six-wide into the lane, offered a mild late response and just got up for the show to return $2.60 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (6:2-1-0; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Postino’s Secret (5th race: 6-1 M/L; 4-1 PT) four wide both turns, rallied gamely in the stretch, drifted in near the sixteenth pole to be much the second best to return $4.80 to PLACE and $3.60 to SHOW.

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