The GQ Approach – Laurel January 15

by | Jan 15, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $4,760.24
  • Super High 5: $437.00
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
First race on a different surface - Many horses prefer one surface or another, which can reveal itself the first time they try their preferred surface. Bettors can get a clue to this based on pedigree.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 6 /#7 – Tiz Surprised (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 / #8 – Postino’s Secret (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  3, 7  w/ 1, 6  ($8)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  2, 6, 8  w/ 3, 5, 6  w/ 3, 7, 8 ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  3, 8  w/ 1, 7  w/ 1, 4, 5  w/ 1, 6, 8  w/ 4, 6, 7 ($54)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  1, 3  w/ 5, 7, 9 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy with highs in the upper-20s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #7 – Hasta Ahora (7-2): Runner-up to upset winner just last week; running lines in all five races sprinting suggest two turns might do the trick; adds blinkers
  2. #3 – Zesty Zar (7-2): MD-bred has a trio of career starts, all in the $40kMCL waiver condition; multi-class drop is warranted as this gelding has only beaten 4 others in others three outings
  3. #1 – Diamond Junior (6-1): Sent off as favorite in 3 of 6 starts and coming up empty; jock R. Chiappe may want to hustle from the gate in hopes this gelding can outlast these foes

Race 2

  1. #6 – Katie’s Caddie (7-2): Gets major class relief after three very minor share outings against Starter Alw as a double-digit longshot in each; prior to those beat a group at this level
  2. #1 – Crystal Pier (7-2): 5 wins from 17 starts but none on Lrl dirt (3:1-0-2); 12 times ITM but often disappoints while short-prices PT favorite in last 6 of 7
  3. #7 – Dance N Denae (3-1): Cut back 6 from 7 panels is want the doctor ordered after barely holding onto the SHOW spot when 1-1; trainer C. Gonzalez is 28% with beaten favorites but not using go to rider raises yellow flag

Race 3

  1. #6 – Crookit (9-2): Closer-type seems to run best after a brief layoff which is not the case here but drop from $16k to $5k should be enough along with an honest pace to see a nice rally in the lane; beat the ML favorite (#7) by 5-lengtsh three back
  2. #2 – Bad Nana (5-1): Rough first try on natural dirt at Pen after first 10 races of career at WO; trainer S. Farlie places his runners where they can be successful
  3. #8 – Northern Prancer (12-1): Trainer switch for latest didn’t wake-up this 6-year-old mare from her “evenly” runs of late; this 7f distance seems to fit her well (6:0-3-0) after 8½ furlongs 

Race 4

  1. #5 – Bash (5-1): MD-bred FTS by Desert Party out of a Doneraile Court mare for breeding outfit that only keeps and races a handful, so have to figure this one has potential; plenty of works 
  2. #6 – Purple in Play (2-1): 4-year-old Great Notion FTS out of a Not for Love mare only fetched $6,500 as a yearling yet the MD-bred filly is conditioned by G. Motion at Fai, showing two bullet drills in her last three
  3. #3 – Ghoul’s Night Out (5-2): Second start with blinkers angle often produces positive results; should have a chance to graduate in gate-to-wire fashion unless the either of the top two are quick from the gate

Race 5

  1. #8 – Postino’s Secret (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Uncharacteristically showed early speed when up against a filly who narrowly missed at the next level; there’s a few in here who will set an honest pace so this one can revert back to her grind it out style to catch foes late
  2. #3 – Ask Me I Might (5-2): Beaten favorite in latest will at this distance and level will once again try to make every pole a winning one but will have company throughout
  3. #7 – Fautive (2-1): Best efforts have come when on or close to the lead; Prx shipper makes Lrl debut and reunited with jock J. Vargas, Jr. who was aboard for her last trip to Winners’ Circle

Race 6

  1. #7 – Tiz Surprised (3-1): *** BEST BET *** What’s not to like?! Pulled a shocker against same when 11-1 after a troubled start and riding a dead rail in first start for trainer G. Capuano who took the early Double yesterday; racing 1/16th of a mile less real estate today is no concern
  2. #1 – Proportionality (8-5): Sagamore Farm has been getting to Winners’ Circle quite often but this one hasn’t since debut win in July which was 5 races back; drops and offered for $25k; second start with blinkers
  3. #4 – Sweet Tweet (15-1): Will likely get first call and with E. Trujillo back in the irons he may be able to nurse the early fractions to get a gate-to-wire win; nice bullet work 5 days ago

Race 7

  1. #4 – No More Excuses (4-1): Needs to find more stamina to get the 6 furlongs (2:0-0-1) after being desperate to hold on going 5½f against open $15k in first start after L. Gaudet claim
  2. #5 – Light My Path (6-1): Pen shipper via WO synthetic (33:5-10-5) has just 2 previous natural dirt starts with a runner-up effort; team of S. Fairlie/M. Rainsford have won at Lrl in recent past
  3. #1/1A – Star Eighty/Lemon Lover (7-5): The #1A carries the ML odds load here though could be vulnerable going the extra half furlong; “Star” got destroyed in Claiming Crown event at GP in Dec., her first start since last March

Race 8

  1. #6 – Candycoated Dame (5-2): Exits victory v. just four foes for trainer C. Gonzalez who has brought this one along nicely since $25k claim 6 races back as BRIS#s have been climbing since
  2. #8 – Sarah’s Treasure (8-1): Speed figures come up short against these gals but she finds her best stride late going longer than the 6f she’s been trying to close into of late; just 1 for 19 in her career but lone win came at this distance (2:1-1-0)
  3. #1 – Charity Stripe (8-1): 2 for 3 at distance and sheds blinkers in second start after E. Geralis claim; jock switch could breathe some life into this filly; like the “Z-race pattern” of last race

Race 9

  1. #4 – Durango Girl (6-1): Drops back to level where she was bridesmaid two back; first try going 7 furlongs
  2. #7 – Majestic Pic (12-1): Has running style that suggests this gray mare will be heard from in deep stretch; getting extra distance in second race after layoff helps
  3. #6 – She’s Got a Shot (12-1): Finds a soft spot in first off $10kN2L claim while still in jail; rough start in latest when sent off 9-5 favorite gives hope for new barn

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday January 14th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 9-race card (5 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $4.00 (1st race), $3.20 (3rd), $9.20 (5th), $7.80 (6th), $6.20 (7th) and $4.40 (9th). Top Selections are 13 for 45 (28.89%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (5:2-0-1; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Ballivor (5th race: 4-1 M/L; 7-2 PT) bumped with a rival leaving the starting gate, was nicely rated while eager to go on mid-way down the backstretch, hugged the inner rail around the turn, eased out to the two-path approaching the eighth pole, took the lead outside of the eventual runner-up near the sixteenth pole then drove clear to return $9.20 to WIN, $4.40 to PLACE and $3.20 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (5:2-0-0; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Degrom (6th race: 6-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) urged from the gate to be forwardly placed, rated kindly past the five eighths while saving ground, eased out for room leaving the far turn, bid in hand three wide outside NICHOLAS and ME nearing the quarter pole, took over without much asking in mid-stretch, shook clear after being shaken up and appeared to have something left at the line to return $7.80 to WIN, $4.40 to PLACE and $3.00 to SHOW.

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