The GQ Approach – Laurel January 13

by | Jan 13, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,624.00
  • Super High 5: no carryover
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Exits a “Key” Race - A “key” race is one where two or more horses came back to win in their next race, and horses coming out of the races often ran better than the figs might suggest.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 /#2 – Shoe Loves Shoes (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 / #5 – Jarvis Steel (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  5, 8  w/ 1, 5, 7  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  1, 3, 5  w/ 5, 7, 8  w/ 1, 4, 5 ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  4, 5  w/ 2, 6  w/ 1, 5, 8 w/ 1, 2  w/ 1, 3, 5 ($36)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  1, 2  w/ 1, 3, 5 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy; highs in the upper-20s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: GOOD

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #5 – Sir Mischief (9-2): Looking for a bit more stamina to get the 6 furlongs, longest test of 7 starts; BRIS# has been climbing and has hot jock (R. Montanez) in the irons
  2. #8 – Day of Reckoning (7-2): Just 6 days ago failed to break maiden as 3-5 favorite; drops to the bottom in hopes of not only winning but just hitting the board for first time in 7 career outings
  3. #7 – Tapitontheside (3-1): 10 starts as a 2-year-old with best finish just one runner-up effort which came in latest; hard to trust any of these so watch for early action on the first-time starter (#5) 

Race 2

  1. #5 – Queen to Checkmate (5-1): This 3-year-old filly is the only winner of two races in here and comes right back at this same level following her second win when 11-1
  2. #7 – Count On Chloe (8-1): Anytime you see a trainer (K. Patterson) winning at a 41% clip, the runner is an auto-use regardless of recent form, especially when making first start for the conditioner and the owner is his top client
  3. #1 – Analyzeyurspending (6-1): Runner-up to top pick in latest by just a length for high-profile NY owner/breeder (M. Repole); both times R. Chiappe has been aboard, she’s been on or near lead which bodes v. these gals

Race 3

  1. #3 – Dictate Cool (2-1): Sagamore Farm MD-bred FTS by Curlin out of the home-bred, multiple stakes winning Candy Ride mare Walkwithapurpose; this outfit wins 29% with firsters; love to see final drill from the gate  
  2. #1/1A – Pantyhose/Bayou’s Legacy (3-1): #1 sheds the blinkers in a good move as she was in the money first four starts w/o them while being an Alos-Ran in three FL-bred stakes w/ them; #1A is a FL-bred FTS by Hear No Evil by an Awesome of Course mare who has a nice work tab
  3. #5 – Finding Perfection (5-2): $130k yearling at Kee for part-owner (R. L. Johnson) who usually breeds his runners; this Majesticperfection filly out of a Seeking the Gold mare shows a full slate of works leading up to career debut

Race 4

  1. #7 – Evil Monkey (3-1): Strictly a play based on being sent off PT favorite here last month in debut but had a rough go, getting an education while 4th in MSW; NJ-bred drops in for $40k tag and with a clean break should be on or near lead today 
  2. #8 – Campari (8-1): Longtime local owner/breeder has been very successful with those he’s kept to race himself; this one could be another who just needed a race; like the confidence stepping this gelding up in class
  3. #5 – Rule Yourself (4-1): All 7 career starts have been on grass but trainer H. DePaz is 41% with turf-to-dirt runners; plenty of gaps between races and was a vet scratch a few weeks back which raises a yellow flag

Race 5

  1. #5 – Jarvis Steel (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ First start in nearly three months but like that this gray is protected; quick from the gate in turf starts has never been OTB on the dirt going this distance (4:3-0-1)
  2. #4 – Mr. Benz (2-1): Didn’t disappoint backers in latest when 2-1 PT favorite; been part of Exacta in last 7 starts; only element that might end that streak is a speed favoring surface on cut back 
  3. #1 – Concordia’s Way (4-1): Finally passed the AlwN1x test in last start when sent off 8-5 favorite while turning in a gaudy 98 BRIS#; rail in ’18 is no longer the KOD that it was in latter parts of ‘17

Race 6

  1. #6 – Jump Jive an Wail (5-2): Has an easy victory against a soft group of restricted AlwN1x in last start; if track is “off” it will help his chances as he’s won last two starts when track was sloppy  
  2. #2 – Grecian Prince (2-1): Cut back to one turn mile should help this front runner try to hold off late-comers as he’ll surely be hounded early by #1A
  3. #5 – I’m Mr. Blue (6-1): First start since last Feb. did not go well being bothered at the start and showed no interest late; looking for a better effort here as J. Toledo retains mount  

Race 7

  1. #5 – Turbin (4-1): A speed favoring surface is not his friend but can overcome bias if there is one as he was runner-up v. open $5k at this distance; makes third start after layoff
  2. #1 – I Stand Alone (12-1): Twice as many runner-up finishes than wins (52:5-10-5) but drops from open $7,500 to beaten $5k; class relief alone should help this 8-year-old have a chance at a rare “W”
  3. #8 – Hurry Up Alan (15-1): Grasping at straws here but in a Go Big or Go Home move he’s only one that has early speed and if the track holds it like yesterday, he could pay handsome dividends

Race 8

  1. #2 – Shoe Loves Shoe (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Gelded since last race which was nearly 11 months ago at Aqu in a minor stakes (ran 4th of 5) following debut win on the NYRA inner track; nice work pattern with the last three being bullets; should play Catch Me If You Can with this field
  2. #1 – Tricky Lion (4-1): Solid MD-bred who hasn’t tested this non-restricted level; will benefit from cut back in distance when beaten favorite
  3. #9 – Self Start (12-1): Lightly races 5-year-old gelding makes first start in nearly four months hasn’t run a bad race though earning very minor shares at this level, was in against multiple next out winners in each of his last three

Race 9

  1. #5 – Hunger (5-1): 8-year-old CA-bred was on the shelf for over three years, was claimed for $5k in first race back (Apr. ’17) which he won by nearly six-lengths; 3 races later eased and away since July five works leading up to another comeback looks promising
  2. #1 – Ruth Less Blue (12-1): Pay no attention to the “talking heads” who continue to believe the rail is not the place to be$7,500 and higher; today drops to beaten $5k
  3. #3 – Risky Guy (3-1): Tough start and wide trip in last outing, a fourth-place effort v. $7,500 open claimers; drops to lowest level in quite some time in 60th career start

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday January 12th at Laurel had just 4 winners from the 9-race card (1 Top Selection; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $8.40 (2nd race), $5.80 (6th), $10.40 (8th) and $5.20 (9th). Top Selections are 6 for 27 (22.22%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (3:1-0-1; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Arrivederci (5th race: 7-2 M/L; 1-1 PT) hugged the rail down the backstretch, failed to match strides with the winner around the turn, drifted out in upper stretch and gave way to finish 4th.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (3:1-0-0; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Gold Man (6th race: 5-1 M/L; 9-5 PT) gained a four-wide lead mid-way on the backstretch, angled to the three-path on the turn, was put to the whip near the eighth pole and held sway while drifting out to win by two and three-quarter lengths and returned $5.80 to WIN, $3.20 to PLACE and $2.20 to SHOW.

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