The GQ Approach – Laurel January 13

by | Jan 13, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,624.00
  • Super High 5: no carryover
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey and/or Trainer “upgrade” - When a higher-win-percentage jockey takes the mount over for one “less successful” in his/her trade, the horse may take a step forward. The same goes when a new trainer has a notably better record than the prior trainer.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 /#2 – Shoe Loves Shoes (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 / #5 – Jarvis Steel (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  5, 8  w/ 1, 5, 7  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  1, 3, 5  w/ 5, 7, 8  w/ 1, 4, 5 ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  4, 5  w/ 2, 6  w/ 1, 5, 8 w/ 1, 2  w/ 1, 3, 5 ($36)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  1, 2  w/ 1, 3, 5 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy; highs in the upper-20s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: GOOD

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #5 – Sir Mischief (9-2): Looking for a bit more stamina to get the 6 furlongs, longest test of 7 starts; BRIS# has been climbing and has hot jock (R. Montanez) in the irons
  2. #8 – Day of Reckoning (7-2): Just 6 days ago failed to break maiden as 3-5 favorite; drops to the bottom in hopes of not only winning but just hitting the board for first time in 7 career outings
  3. #7 – Tapitontheside (3-1): 10 starts as a 2-year-old with best finish just one runner-up effort which came in latest; hard to trust any of these so watch for early action on the first-time starter (#5) 

Race 2

  1. #5 – Queen to Checkmate (5-1): This 3-year-old filly is the only winner of two races in here and comes right back at this same level following her second win when 11-1
  2. #7 – Count On Chloe (8-1): Anytime you see a trainer (K. Patterson) winning at a 41% clip, the runner is an auto-use regardless of recent form, especially when making first start for the conditioner and the owner is his top client
  3. #1 – Analyzeyurspending (6-1): Runner-up to top pick in latest by just a length for high-profile NY owner/breeder (M. Repole); both times R. Chiappe has been aboard, she’s been on or near lead which bodes v. these gals

Race 3

  1. #3 – Dictate Cool (2-1): Sagamore Farm MD-bred FTS by Curlin out of the home-bred, multiple stakes winning Candy Ride mare Walkwithapurpose; this outfit wins 29% with firsters; love to see final drill from the gate  
  2. #1/1A – Pantyhose/Bayou’s Legacy (3-1): #1 sheds the blinkers in a good move as she was in the money first four starts w/o them while being an Alos-Ran in three FL-bred stakes w/ them; #1A is a FL-bred FTS by Hear No Evil by an Awesome of Course mare who has a nice work tab
  3. #5 – Finding Perfection (5-2): $130k yearling at Kee for part-owner (R. L. Johnson) who usually breeds his runners; this Majesticperfection filly out of a Seeking the Gold mare shows a full slate of works leading up to career debut

Race 4

  1. #7 – Evil Monkey (3-1): Strictly a play based on being sent off PT favorite here last month in debut but had a rough go, getting an education while 4th in MSW; NJ-bred drops in for $40k tag and with a clean break should be on or near lead today 
  2. #8 – Campari (8-1): Longtime local owner/breeder has been very successful with those he’s kept to race himself; this one could be another who just needed a race; like the confidence stepping this gelding up in class
  3. #5 – Rule Yourself (4-1): All 7 career starts have been on grass but trainer H. DePaz is 41% with turf-to-dirt runners; plenty of gaps between races and was a vet scratch a few weeks back which raises a yellow flag

Race 5

  1. #5 – Jarvis Steel (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ First start in nearly three months but like that this gray is protected; quick from the gate in turf starts has never been OTB on the dirt going this distance (4:3-0-1)
  2. #4 – Mr. Benz (2-1): Didn’t disappoint backers in latest when 2-1 PT favorite; been part of Exacta in last 7 starts; only element that might end that streak is a speed favoring surface on cut back 
  3. #1 – Concordia’s Way (4-1): Finally passed the AlwN1x test in last start when sent off 8-5 favorite while turning in a gaudy 98 BRIS#; rail in ’18 is no longer the KOD that it was in latter parts of ‘17

Race 6

  1. #6 – Jump Jive an Wail (5-2): Has an easy victory against a soft group of restricted AlwN1x in last start; if track is “off” it will help his chances as he’s won last two starts when track was sloppy  
  2. #2 – Grecian Prince (2-1): Cut back to one turn mile should help this front runner try to hold off late-comers as he’ll surely be hounded early by #1A
  3. #5 – I’m Mr. Blue (6-1): First start since last Feb. did not go well being bothered at the start and showed no interest late; looking for a better effort here as J. Toledo retains mount  

Race 7

  1. #5 – Turbin (4-1): A speed favoring surface is not his friend but can overcome bias if there is one as he was runner-up v. open $5k at this distance; makes third start after layoff
  2. #1 – I Stand Alone (12-1): Twice as many runner-up finishes than wins (52:5-10-5) but drops from open $7,500 to beaten $5k; class relief alone should help this 8-year-old have a chance at a rare “W”
  3. #8 – Hurry Up Alan (15-1): Grasping at straws here but in a Go Big or Go Home move he’s only one that has early speed and if the track holds it like yesterday, he could pay handsome dividends

Race 8

  1. #2 – Shoe Loves Shoe (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Gelded since last race which was nearly 11 months ago at Aqu in a minor stakes (ran 4th of 5) following debut win on the NYRA inner track; nice work pattern with the last three being bullets; should play Catch Me If You Can with this field
  2. #1 – Tricky Lion (4-1): Solid MD-bred who hasn’t tested this non-restricted level; will benefit from cut back in distance when beaten favorite
  3. #9 – Self Start (12-1): Lightly races 5-year-old gelding makes first start in nearly four months hasn’t run a bad race though earning very minor shares at this level, was in against multiple next out winners in each of his last three

Race 9

  1. #5 – Hunger (5-1): 8-year-old CA-bred was on the shelf for over three years, was claimed for $5k in first race back (Apr. ’17) which he won by nearly six-lengths; 3 races later eased and away since July five works leading up to another comeback looks promising
  2. #1 – Ruth Less Blue (12-1): Pay no attention to the “talking heads” who continue to believe the rail is not the place to be$7,500 and higher; today drops to beaten $5k
  3. #3 – Risky Guy (3-1): Tough start and wide trip in last outing, a fourth-place effort v. $7,500 open claimers; drops to lowest level in quite some time in 60th career start

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday January 12th at Laurel had just 4 winners from the 9-race card (1 Top Selection; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $8.40 (2nd race), $5.80 (6th), $10.40 (8th) and $5.20 (9th). Top Selections are 6 for 27 (22.22%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (3:1-0-1; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Arrivederci (5th race: 7-2 M/L; 1-1 PT) hugged the rail down the backstretch, failed to match strides with the winner around the turn, drifted out in upper stretch and gave way to finish 4th.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (3:1-0-0; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Gold Man (6th race: 5-1 M/L; 9-5 PT) gained a four-wide lead mid-way on the backstretch, angled to the three-path on the turn, was put to the whip near the eighth pole and held sway while drifting out to win by two and three-quarter lengths and returned $5.80 to WIN, $3.20 to PLACE and $2.20 to SHOW.

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