The GQ Approach – Laurel January 12

by | Jan 12, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,002.92
  • Super High 5: no carryover
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
First race on a different surface - Many horses prefer one surface or another, which can reveal itself the first time they try their preferred surface. Bettors can get a clue to this based on pedigree.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 5 /#1 – Arrivederci (7-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 / #7 – Gold Man (5-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1: $2 Double  1, 5, 6  w/ 1, 7  ($12)
  • Race 3: 50 cent Pick-3  3, 4, 7  w/ 4, 6, 7  w/ 1, 5, 8 ($13.50)
  • Race 5: 50 cent Pick-5  1, 8  w/ 6, 7  w/ 4, 8, 10  w/ 1, 7, 8  w/ 2, 6 ($36)
  • Race 8: $2 Double  1, 7, 8  w/ 2, 6 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy with chance of Rain; highs in the low-60s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: GOOD

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #5 – Dixie Rose (7-2): Checked at the break of last, then was widest of the field trying to close late and galloped out very well; looks like she would appreciate more distance but comes back in same 5½ furlongs
  2. #6 – Eye on Berlin (12-1): Add blinkers after one of the worst stumbles exiting the starting gate this capper has witnessed in some time; considering she is an early speed type, jock packed it in
  3. #1 – Miss Krivoruchka (6-1): Pen invader been leaving state-breds in the dust north of the Mason-Dixon Line; willing to forgive latest when she broke thru the gate in Alwn1x

Race 2

  1. #7 – Shecor (2-1): Trainer K. Magee wins at a 40% clip with runners dropping multiple class levels; this filly is just 1 of 2 in here who has beaten winners
  2. #1/1A – Mitzy/Crazy Elexis (8-1): Will pass on #1 who’s form has gone south since adding blinkers; like #1A who can rebound in third start after layoff; 1 of 2 wins came on a sloppy track
  3. #2 – Mila Jane (5-2): Finished three-lengths behind ML favorite in here when going two turns at a big price (36-1); switches from M. Pino to J. Corrales barn this outing

Race 3

  1. #3 – Lil Love Machine (2-1): Beaten favorite on class drop, drops another level after a credible third earning best last race BRIS# in this field; S. Russell back aboard
  2. #4 – Icelake (4-1): Claimed by S. Lake out of last, a win v. $10kN2L; continued improvement in new barn gives him a big shot here
  3. #7 – Mr. October (6-1): Draw a line through latest regardless that the steep drop could raise a yellow flag; “Reggie” seems to find trouble as he hasn’t had a clean trip in his last half dozen

Race 4

  1. #6 – Awesome Mary (4-1): Adds Lasix for second career outing after rallying in the stretch to claim PLACE purse in debut; jock E. Trujillo back aboard as he had option to take call on the #5     
  2. #7 – Miminegash (10-1): KY-bred FTS by Paynter out of a Holy Bull mare hails from small barn whose trainer C. Melton was 2 for 5 in ’17; attracts leading rider J. Toledo
  3. #4 – Sugar Shack (3-1): Awful start but nice finish while swinging 6-wide to salvage SHOW purse in last effort to break maiden; only one in here to have at least this far (one mile) 

Race 5

  1. #1 – Arrivederci (7-2): *** BEST BET *** Only KY-bred in this contest and should be saying “Goodbye” to his rivals shortly after exiting the Starting Gate; rail is much better place to be now than in last start 
  2. #8 – Bad Angle Burke (4-1): Evenly in debut against $40kMCL foes when off at 29-1; drops with a chance to bump up trainer G. Capuano gaudy win pct. (30%) with runners second career race 
  3. #5 – In Him With Him (9-2): An adventurous debut back after Thanksgiving only shows one work since which was a month ago; jock upgrade for second start gives hope for a cleaner trip

Race 6

  1. #7 – Gold Man (5-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Making 64th career start this 9 y.o. is better than ever, increasing BRIS# in each of last five races; 4th in Fabulous Strike at Pen two back as Dave’ Friend winner Favorite Tale was runner-up; this guy loves an off track (17:6-3-1)
  2. #6 – Fortuitous Path (5-2): Three-race win streak snapped in latest when stretched out an extra furlong; cuts back to 6f today; in best form of his career
  3. #3 – Spirit Grabber (3-1): Jock switch seemed to be the winning move or was it lighter competition beating AlwN1x v. Starter Alw7500? Back in with the latter today… time will tell 

Race 7

  1. #8 – Baltimore Street (7-2): Huge class drop is not unusual for this outfit that is all about the W’s; new kid in town J. Vargas, Jr. appears to be the hot jock so far in ’18 (4 for 8)
  2. #4 – Scarlett’s Ransom (8-1): Speed, speed, speed… in this field of 13 only the #5 has a prayer to run with her early; cuts back from 6f to 5½f is perfect for her to hold off rivals late
  3. #10 – More Stones (x-1): NY-bred via FL isn’t good enough for The Big A; been training at CT so a good sign when moved to Lrl and worked a bullet 3 days ago; an off track would help chances

Race 8

  1. #7 – Southside Warrior (2-1): Two weeks ago ran evenly in the state-bred Jennings; recent history shows he’ll turn in a good performance when brought back quickly
  2. #8 – Dattt Melody (9-2): This level fits him like a glove; turn back to one-turn mile helps as well as fact his rail trip in latest was not the best place to be; look for J.D. to have him leading the way into the turn
  3. #1/1A – Dr. Toole/Doctor Peter (3-1): Cannot go wrong with either physician; appears one may scratch has J. Toledo listed on both; “Toole” was beaten favorite going two turns at this level after missing by a head at this distance; “Peter” makes Lrl debut; always well backed up the road (Prx and Del) while hitting the board in 6 of 7 starts since J. Ness claim, with two victories

Race 9

  1. #2 – Airlie’s Diamond (7-2): This little gal gives it her all more often than not but has never had her picture taken as her lone win from 32 starts was via DQ; toss her latest as she’s a sprinter with BRIS# that rival the likely over bet favorite (#6); last week an 0 for 28 broke her maiden in the nightcap; why not this gal making her first trip into the Winners’ Circle?
  2. #6 – Derval (2-1): Multi-level class dropper shipping in from NY as trainer W. Potts inherits this filly who broke her maiden two back in the slop; jock R. Montanez has made a nice early impression to make a living in MD v. NY
  3. #10 – Selling Stones (8-1): Got SHOW purse in local debut when imported from FL; trainer O. Figgins does well (24%) with second start runners

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Monday January 8th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $8.40 (1st race), $8.40 (2nd), $6.20 (3rd), $3.40 (4th), $5.80 (6th), $15.20 (8th) and $13.60 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 Double paid $40.00 (cost: $12). Top Selections are 5 for 18 (27.77%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (2:1-0-1; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Shackle Me Good (3rd race: 3-1 M/L; 2-1 PT) cleared early, set the pace removed from the rail, was joined from her inside by the Post Time favorite (BENCHMARK BABE) mid turn, briefly ceded to that one, dueled into the stretch, edged clear under left handed rousing leaving the eighth pole then steadily widened while solidly hand ridden the final sixteenth to win by two and one half-lengths and returned $6.20 to WIN, $3.40 to PLACE and $2.60 to SHOW $3.20 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (2:0-0-0; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Given Achance (9th race: 12-1 M/L; 5-1 PT) no speed early, swung 5-wide on the turn while improving position but weakened in the lane to finish seventh.

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