The GQ Approach – Laurel January 8

by | Jan 8, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: no carryover
  • Super High 5: $3,449.26
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Change of Equipment or Medication - Trainers often tinker with a horse's equipment - putting on or removing blinkers, adding Lasix, gelding a horse - to find what works best. Sometimes these changes can yield big improvements.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 3 /#9 – Shackle Me Good (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 9 / #10 – Given Achance (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1: $2 Double  1, 5, 7  w/ 4, 5  ($12)
  • Race 3: 50 cent Pick-3  2, 8, 9  w/ 4, 5, 6  w/ 1, 6, 10 ($13.50)
  • Race 5: 50 cent Pick-5  1, 6, 10  w/ 1, 6 w/ 5, 9, 10  w/ 5, 7  w/ 1, 4, 10 ($54)
  • Race 8: $2 Double  5, 7  w/ 1, 4, 10 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Cold; highs in the low-30s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST

HAPPY 91st BIRTHDAY to the most incredible woman in my life… my Mom!

Race 1

  1. #7 – Include a Check (5-1): Closed ground going 5½f here in first outing in 3-months when she’s never run that short; only gets another 1/16th but it might be enough; bullet work last week
  2. #5 – Blue Hen Madness (3-1): UofD alums will be backing this mare but so should many others as she comes off a tiring “rail trip” going 5½f at this same level; gate-to-wire is how she wins
  3. #1 – Myheartinthecity (7-2): The cold weather and track maintenance did wonders as the rail was kind to runners, stark contrast to the past few months; we’ll see with this one  

Race 2

  1. #4 – Goodbyeseeulater (2-1): This 11-time winner comes off a bottom level, open claiming victory and today steps back up to level and distance of his previous win at Parx
  2. #5 – Dazzling Okie (5-2): Missed by a neck going 3-turns at CT in an effort to score a natural Hat Trick; 1 for 2 at Lrl with the win coming at this level and distance when claimed 6 races back
  3. #1/1A – Top Prospect/Persie (6-1): Nice 1-2 punch for owner A. Staple where #1A should lead the way and willing to soften up any foes early for entrymate to get up late 

Race 3

  1. #9 – Shackle Me Good (3-1): *** BEST BET *** A favorite among the S&M crowd, don’t judge and handicappers alike in this contest; made short work out of similar in last outing and can repeat in 3rd race after layoff ca this 4 y.o. filly with 4-career wins can still compete in N3L v. elders
  2. #2 – Bring Me Answers (9-2): This 4 y.o. is a 3-time winner, claimed out of latest at this level 6 weeks ago and working steadily since, patiently waiting for this condition to surface again
  3. #8 – Chef Karen (8-1): Bridesmaid to top pick in latest effort makes third start for trainer A. Aguirre after seemingly finding where this filly can be successful

Race 4

  1. #6 – Jarvis (10-1): Took 17 starts to get career win #1 and nearly got #2 in next start when stepped up from $10kMCL to $16N2L, getting the PLACE purse in spite of being roughed up at the start
  2. #5 – Reedini (7-5): Comes along for van ride with trainer D. Jacobson’s stakes runner (in R8); on paper should cruise to his second career win but the race isn’t run on paper
  3. #4 – Stephen’s Answer (10-1): Willing to chalk up the latest to being outclassed; like the move from route to sprint which trainer M. Trombetta does well with 18% of starters, better than overall pct.

Race 5

  1. #1 – Mr. Brightside (4-1): Killers song title namesake will be, “Coming out of my cage, and I’ve been doing just fine” since the rail was much more kind to runners yesterday than past months; troubled runner-up v. similar in latest so clean trip sees him arrive late to get to wire first
  2. #6 – Charlie’s Darlin (15-1): Won in first start for trainer L. Albert two back; has run beyond 6f just once while pedigree suggests he should have been all along; maybe by some miracle he’ll change leads in the stretch 
  3. #10 – Can’tmakethisup (6-1): Has outrun his odds in last two earning SHOW purse; was game in latest going two-turns, cut back to one-turn mile could prove to be a winning move 

Race 6

  1. #6 – Bo Vuk (3-1): Been over a year since last trip to Winners Circle for this lightly raced 5 y.o. gelding but was a game third when steadied in mid-stretch v. a better group than these
  2. #1 – My Train (6-1): Got a bit leg-weary late at Pen v. state bred allowance foes; if he puts in a similar effort as any of his previous 3 Lrl races (80+ BRIS#) he can conquer this one mile event
  3. #3 – Deal Driven (5-2): Takes a multi-class step up off $5k claim; winner of 3 of last 4 starts will make new owner/trainer M. Merryman look like Sonny Fitzsimmons if he gets to wire first

Race 7 is the $100k Thirty Eight Go Go Stakes

  1. #9 – Crimson Frost (9-2): Trainer L. Rice was very successful in 2017 shipping into MD even though cooled off during the Fall meet; this filly makes first road trip since arriving in NY via CD after form went south; seems to be flourishing in her new digs, a repeat of her 101 BRIS# from latest effort gets the win here
  2. #5 – Power of Snunner (10-1): Graded-stakes placed invader from PA brings along regular jock D. Whitney for Lrl debut; 8 y.o. mare just missed in a Prx sprint as even money favorites; going 2 more furlongs today will enhance her chances
  3. #10 – Tiz Rude (8-1): Seeks the natural Hat Trick as she’s now out of conditions 12 races into her career; loves this distance (3:2-1-0) but needs to take another step forward to be a factor; F. Pennington has hit the board in 8 of 9 rides on her for trainer John Servis

Race 8 is the $100k Dave’s Friend Stakes

  1. #5 – Great Stuff (5-1): Has strongest mid-to-late pace numbers of this group and a closing style that bodes well with the likely pace scenario; also boasts career best BRIS# at this 6f distance which is tops in here; trainer D. Jacobson gets jock upgrade w/ S. Russell in the irons
  2. #7 – Ready for Rye (5-1): Veteran of over a dozen graded stakes races has done well in these listed stakes; though just 1 for 12 on a fast track, if the “mixed precip” falls as predicted, his chances get a lot better on an “off” track (4:3-1-0)
  3. #3 – Favorite Tale (12-1): Might be the village idiot liking this 7 y.o. as his third place effort in the ’15 BC Sprint continues to stick out in his PPs; might be getting long in the tooth but can still mix it up with the youngsters at this level

Race 9

  1. #10 – Given Achance (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Early candidate for ’18 Eclipse Apprentice Jock candidate W. Hamilton takes reins for “Snake” Frock who places this gal where she belongs; runner-up one level higher two back then stopped v. $25k foes in latest
  2. #4 – Earned the Shot (12-1): Second start with blinkers angle often yields nice returns and ran better in first start with the hood stepping up from $12500 at CT to $16kMCL here
  3. #1/1A – Firey Child/Flying Phillip’s (5-2): The #1 carries the burden of the ML favoritism but 6f could be a bit too far; if stablemate can clear this field early she could be the one saving the Chalk players a–

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday January 7th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.80 (2nd race), $11.00 (4th), $8.40 (5th), $3.60 (6th), $5.80 (8th) and $16.00 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R8-R9 $2 Double paid $62.00 (cost: $12). Top Selections are 3 for 9 (33.33%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (1:0-0-1; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Mid Ocean (7th race: 9-2 M/L; 7-2 PT) saved ground the first turn, moved up four deep leaving the far turn and flattened out late to finish third, three-lengths behind the winner and returned $3.20 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (1:0-0-0; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Raven Rush (2nd race: 8-1 M/L; 5-1 PT) set the pace two wide while handling some outside pressure, held a clear lead soon into the lane, ceded command past the three sixteenths and weakened very late to finish fifth just four-lengths behind the winner.

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