The GQ Approach – Laurel October 20

by | Oct 20, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Chublicious

Chublicious was up late to defeat Blu Moon Ace in the De Francis Dash. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $3,049
  • Super High 5: $870
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Cutback in distance - Running a route race (1 mile or more) can improve a horse's fitness and help him learn to relax; it can also lead to a big effort when shortening up to a sprint.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 6 /#2 – Sassy Little Cat (9-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 3 / #10 – Markakis (30-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1: $2 Double  2, 5, 7  w/ 4, 6  ($12)
  • Race 3: 50 cent Pick-3  1, 2, 10  w/ 3, 7, 12  w/ 9 10, 11 ($13.50)
  • Race 6: 50 cent Pick-5  8, 10, 11  w/ 2, 7  w/ 1, 3, 5  w/ 5, 11, 12 ($36)
  • Race 9: $2 Double  1, 3, 5  w/ 11, 12 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the mid-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 8th and 9th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST; Turf: FIRM

NEW 1st Race Post is 12:30pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Eastern Bay (4-1): Very interesting that H. Karamanos chooses to ride this gelding (v. ML fav.) who is making turf debut as well as first start since mid-Feb.; shows no grass works but is bred to handle turf
  2. #5 – Dundalk (8-5): On paper is the best turf runner; trie going two turns in latest but tired; turn back to sprint makes him popular choice Hon; D. Houghton/K. Gomez are 2 for 4 at the meet 
  3. #2 – Magician’s Bags (9-2): Speed on the synthetic at Pid will translate well to turf as he makes first start for trainer M. Trombetta who sent him out for a bullet work at Fai

Race 2

  1. #4– Industry Leader (5-2): Took to Lrl main oval when stepped up a few class levels to be good enough for PLACE purse; winner of 10 races from 50 starts qualifies for condition due to recent wins coming at $4k level at Pen; gate-to-wire is the only way to the Winners Circle
  2. #6 – Sky Chaparal (2-1): Toss latest in the Lrl slop as hates the “off” going (4:0-0-0) plus was in v. much better than these; prevailed two back against similar at this distance
  3. #7 – Drive At Nite (7-2): Lrl local needs pace help to get the victory and though he has won at this sprint dirt sprint (9:1-3-2) the setup on paper doesn’t look promising for more than a minor award

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – Markakis (30-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Go Big or Go Home! Been off form and/or just in over his head all year but showed enough interest late to warrant a look (or is that hope) he still can run; field lacks early speed and the last time he faced claimers 11-months ago was his last win in near gate-to-wire fashion; trust that E. Prado reads the PPs and this race unfolds as expected
  2. #2 – Dream Man (7-2): Draw a line through latest “off the turf” try as he didn’t break a sweat yet earned fourth place purse in a 4-horse race; deep closer on the grass will be only heard from during Rodman’s stretch call
  3. #1 – Prime Time Man (2-1): Badly beaten favorite when in first after claim, reclaimed by trainer K. Magee for different owner, comes right back to same level and reunited with hot-riding A. Cintron

Race 4

  1. #12 – Enchanted Ghost (9-2): Tis the Halloween season for a hunch but she’s more than that as she got an education in debut after an awful break and 5-wide passed rivals late to salvage SHOW purse
  2. #3 – Miss Saffron (8-1): MD-bred FTS by very successful local sire Redeemed out of a Capote mare; evenly spaced works were wrapped up with one from the gate; W. Potts/J. Miller duo are a force to be reckoned with (33% at the meet)
  3. #7 – Splendor Gal (12-1): KY-bred FTS by Paynter out of a Speightstown mare should be quick from the gate, nice work pattern proves she’s been pointing to this one for debut; note that S. Russell lands here instead of either T. Keefe’s debut runners (#4 and #5)

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Piercinator (6-1): Wide open affair strategically placed on card to be part of both Early and Late Pick-5; landed on this beaten favorite due to being compromising in the stretch; can bounce back at this same level if she runs back to figure she earned in maiden score two back
  2. #10 – Love You Much (8-1): No problem backing this one on the drop after being eased in an off the turf event as H. Karamanos stays aboard; was a half-length behind “Benz” two back; this one is third race after layoff
  3. #9 – Censure (6-1): Finally graduated when dropped to $16kMCL on turf with a nice late run after being 7-wide at the quarter pole; Lightbulb Theory may come into play as that 80 BRIS# is the best last race figure in this field

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Sassy Little Cat (9-2): *** BEST BET *** 6-year-old mare is used to mixing it up with classier grass runners; last time she was in for a ($15k) tag she was much the best with recently engage S. Russell who coincidently is on a hot streak; she’s the only T’bred longtime racing fan, owner and breeder has bred… a great story waiting to be written
  2. #7 – Cara’s Nay Nay (8-1): Loves the Lrl lawn (5 for 6) but is stepping up to highest claiming level in quite some time; should get a nice stalking trip and first run at the early leaders turning for home
  3. #4 – De Marquee (8-1): Third start following a 14-month layoff as Sagamore Farm has decided to cut bait (offered for $20k) after two sixth-place efforts… first was in a minor stakes then first level allowance; she seems to be a decent broodmare prospect if today doesn’t go well

Race 7

  1. #2 – Anna’s Bandit (5-2): Seeks redemption after failed to fire when sent off 4-5 Post favorite coming off a 14-month layoff; comes right back to this first level allowance after putting in a sharp drill last weekend
  2. #3 – Sazerac Girl (4-1): She’s been a Cash Cow (30:2-11-6) for these connections as she’s on pace for another 16-race year averaging $100k/yearbut she cannot be trusted on top, so look for another late run to get in the exotics as she’s hit the board in 8 of 10 at this distance
  3. #5 – Thissongisaboutyou (3-1): Short price for a 1 for 14 filly coming off a 5-month layoff but one look at her work tab indicates she’ll be ready

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Tam Tam Attack (6-1): After three dirt sprints at CD to start career this War Front gelding out of a Leriodesanimaux mare gets to run on the surface for which he was bred; claimed for $50k out of latest, when runner-up as beaten favorite, the new ownership group must be on the same wave-length as this Capper
  2. #3 – Minor Legend (8-1): Pay special attention to this race as it may hint at how the turf will play for MD Million turf races… there is a ton of early speed in here so if the Lrl lawn is playing fair, this ridgling should be heard from in deep stretch
  3. #5 – Top Hat City (4-1): Ran a monster 93 BRIS# when this gelding broke his maiden here two back; a nice runner-up effort from off the pace in latest; using those same tactics today would make sense while being just off what shapes up to be a very, brisk pace 

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #12 – It Is Time (9-2): This KY-bred More Than Ready FTS out of an A.P. Indy mare fetched $80k at the ’16 Kee yearling sale; been training for debut since mid-July firing plenty of bullets; will need to clear foes from far outside but trust S. Russell will provide a stellar ride
  2. #11 – Gallows Bay (7-2): Trainer A. Delacour FTSs (21%) always warrant an extra look; with Stormy Atlantic as the sire this KY/Home-bred should be quick from the gate; one concern is he skipped final work last weekend… or assumed he did when he had been on strict every 7-9 day breeze; no Lasix for debut
  3. #5 – Highland Bowl (3-1): FL/Home-bred FTS by More Than Ready out of a Broken Vow mare has been strutting his stuff in the A.M. at Fai on both dirt and turf, though all bullets have been on dirt the toteboard will be a tell-tale sign of who in this field is well-meant for debut

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS 

  • On Monday October 16th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 10-race card (5 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $10.20 (1st race), $3.20 (2nd), $6.00 (4th), $3.00 (5th), $3.20 (7th), $5.40 (8th) and $11.00 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 Double paid $19.40 (cost: $12). Top Selections in 2017 are 335 for 1,177 (28.46%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (118: 39-25-19; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Risky Guy (8th race: 3-1 M/L; 8-5 PT) away alertly, prompted the pace four wide, moved to engage the leader midway on the turn, dueled outside that one under right handed rousing past the three sixteenths, gained a slim advantage in mid-stretch, had his rider switch to the left stick and prevailed in an extended drive and returned $5.40 to WIN and $3.40 to PLACE (there was NO SHOW wagering).
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (105: 18-13-14; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) Wedgewood Blue (10th race: 6-1 M/L; 9-2 PT) four wide stalking the pace, came five-wide for the drive and weakened to finish 8th.

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