The GQ Approach – Laurel October 8

by | Oct 8, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Chublicious

Chublicious was up late to defeat Blu Moon Ace in the De Francis Dash. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $7,747.45
  • Super High 5: $8,806.35
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Exits a “Key” Race - A “key” race is one where two or more horses came back to win in their next race, and horses coming out of the races often ran better than the figs might suggest.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 3 / #3 – Wind Tartare (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 9 / #11 – Six Tonsafun (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1: $2 Double  7, 10  w/ 2, 5, 6  ($12)
  • Race 3: 50 cent Pick-3  1, 3, 5  w/ 4, 5, 6  w/ 1, 2, 5  ($13.50)
  • Race 6: 50 cent Pick-4  4, 7  w/ 7, 9, 10  w/ 1, 8, 10  w/ 3, 4, 11  ($27)
  • Race 8: $2 Double  8, 10  w/ 3, 4, 11  ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ chance of showers; highs in the mid-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 8th and 9th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST; Turf: FIRM

Post Time for Race 1 is 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Follow the Petals (4-1): Ran a winning race in latest when third by less than a length but encountered traffic at 3/16th; trainer/jock combo has gotten 22% to Winners’ Circle this meet 
  2. #10 – Jermy Street (9-2): Claimed out of last two races, the most recent one a winning one v. $20kN3L in gate-to-wire fashion; that won’t happen in here with the a trio of speedsters likely leading the way early; has tactical speed  and never OTB (6:2-2-2) at this distance on the turf
  3. #4 – Keep Your Distance (5-1): Cuts back a 1/16th which should be perfect distance as she’s led in deep stretch in last 3 turf routes but will be pressured early 

Race 2

  1. #5 – V.I.P. Code (2-1): An anticipated quick early pace sets up this race perfectly for this colt who should be stalking the early speed and make a winning move in mid-stretch
  2. #6 – Arazi Like Move (6-1): Won career debut at Del in mid-August as Post Time favorite and was “reported” as being gelded since… some thanks, eh?! SHOW runner that day won in next outing; jock S. Speith only mount on this card
  3. #2 – Stroll Smokin (3-1): Nearly pulled off 20-1 upset in Lrl Futurity in first turf try when blinkers were added; that 82 BRIS# two back is tops in this field

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Wind Tartare (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Seems that trainer C. Brown has discovered Lrl (4:2-2-0) and its nice purses as a place to ship not only stakes runners but allowance level types like this one; nice work tab since winning first level allowance on Mth turf 2-months back; note in France she finished one-length behind Rymska who raced in ’16 BC Juv. Filly Turf and won here recently
  2. #1 – Regal Roma (5-1): Deep Closer will need pace help but should get it from multiple sources; overcame rail assignment two back to win here but that was in an off the turf, one turn contest over a muddy main track
  3. #5 – Mini Hero (12-1): Ignored by ML oddsmaker this 5-year-old mare makes third start after layoff and has earned one of the top turf BRIS#s of this bunch; should get a nice stalking trip to get first run at leg-weary front runners 

Race 4

  1. #4 – Battle Tale (5-2): Continues to climb the class and speed figure ladder successfully; seems as though adding blinkers was key as this 6-year-old mare is just a head short of riding a 4-race win streak since the equipment change
  2. #6 – Toby Girl (4-1): SHOWed in first try versus winners at Sar but disappointed in latest at Prx only able to manage fourth when 5-2; stretch out to one mile after two sprints works for trainer A. Farrior (21%)
  3. #5 – Phantom Shot (3-1): A few who she’s beaten recently have won in their next outing but first time going one mile is a concern for this Capper; hard to toss any runner in here

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Chateau de Vizille (7-2): This group of geldings and one colt lack a “need the lead” type so one could inherit the early lead with top local turf rider because he actually reads the PP’s; was runner-up when trying to go gate-to-wire in only previous start at this one mile distance; never OTB when racing on Lrl lawn (4:1-2-1)
  2. #1 – Tennessee Wildcat (5-1): Probably the best (but only) TN-bred turf runner in MD and possibly elsewhere; trainer H. Smith has done a great job with this gelding who blossomed when put on turf (5:2-1-2); runner-up to him in latest came back yesterday and got beat at the wire
  3. #5 – Gold Braid (8-1): Was forwardly placed in only two turf tries which were two turn events versus better at Mth this summer; comes off a pair of dirt sprints which might put him on or near the lead setting pedestrian fractions; chance to upset at a price

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Cape Apache (6-1): Experiment going long on turf after 2-month layoff didn’t go well but was just 3+ lengths behind SHOW runner who graduated yesterday; best finish came prior to layoff when runner-up on a “good” turf; might be wishful thinking but Lrl area may get a few showers that mighty soften up what has been a rock-hard turf course of late; dropping down a level also helps
  2. #7 – Offshore Trip (7-2): Likely pace-setter should have company early as he finally flashed speed in latest in second start with blinkers; has improved speed figure-wise in each start since debut was washed off turf
  3. #13 – Put Em Up (8-1): Away since Aug. 11 when he didn’t run a lick on dirt as Post Time favorite in local debut, nearly 8-months since career debut on GP turf earning a 82 BRIS# in spipte of seventh-place effort

Race 7

  1. #10 – Stormy Embrace (4-1): Last raced on Aug. 20 when runner-up first time v. second level allowance foes earning career best BRIS#; this Mth-shipper has tackled better in the past and gets regular jock to come in for just this mount 
  2. #9 – Americana (6-1): Whenever trainer L. Jones ships in from Del one needs to take note, especially when it’s a Fox Hill Farm runner (re: Songbird; Havre de Grace, etc.); this filly originally started career on left coast w/ J. Hollendorfer on turf and synthetic then shipped east where she’s flourished sprinting on dirt (5:2-3-0); makes Lrl debut w/ natural hat trick in mind
  3. #7 – Tickled Pink (9-2): Got buried on Bel turf in minor stakes in latest; returns to dirt and level she can find success for trainer G. Motion; both wins have come here… debut on fast track and first level allowance two back in mud at today’s distance  

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – English Minister (5-2): 7-year-old is just 3 for 37 in his career but all 3 wins have come at today’s distance from just 9 starts; third race after layoff and a pair of fourth-place efforts, one behind recent G3 winner Just Howard by just a couple lengths
  2. #8 – Wolf Rock (3-1): Trainer K. Rubley who has been on a hot streak of late with turf runners brings this on in from Fair Hill after an eye-popping 101 BRIS#, a career best but could bounce
  3. #1/1A – Double Whammy/Oak Bluffs (12-1): “Whammy” has been disappointing of late so the interest is w/ entrymate who has been sprinting but was successful in the past when going one mile on turf (5:2-1-1)

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Six Tonsafun (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ In this very competitive open claimer nightcap, one could land on more than half of this field , so going with this recent two-time Also-Ran in allowance company; she has two wins in ’17, both came at Lrl, her only two here this year and at this distance versus better ($16k); Go Big then Go Home! Don’t forget… Lrl races Monday!
  2. #3 – Jersey Life (6-1): Speedy FL-bred makes first start after trainer T. Shaw claim for this same tag but he’s 0 for 14 in this scenario; regardless lone Lrl Lawn start was a victorious one at this level 11-months ago; the additional 1/16th should help not hurt 
  3. #4 – Crystal Pier (3-1): Lukewarm ML choice is 3 for 4 on Lrl grass, all have come at this distance and against similar or better foes; trainer/jock combo have won with 3 of 7 starters this meet 

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday October 7th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 10-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $4.20 (1st race), $3.40 (2nd), $8.20 (3rd), $8.80 (7th), $20.60 (8th) and $13.40 (10th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 Double paid $10.20 (cost: $12). Top Selections in 2017 are 318 for 1,130 (28.14%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (115: 37-25-19; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Broad Surprise (8th race: 3-1 M/L) was SCRATCHED.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (101: 17-12-13; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) Leather Goods (9th race: 12-1 M/L; 8-1 PT) no factor while racing in the 5-path entering the stretch and finished 9th just 5-lengths behind to winner.

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