The GQ Approach – Laurel October 8

by | Oct 8, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Chublicious

Chublicious was up late to defeat Blu Moon Ace in the De Francis Dash. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $7,747.45
  • Super High 5: $8,806.35
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Cutback in distance - Running a route race (1 mile or more) can improve a horse's fitness and help him learn to relax; it can also lead to a big effort when shortening up to a sprint.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 3 / #3 – Wind Tartare (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 9 / #11 – Six Tonsafun (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1: $2 Double  7, 10  w/ 2, 5, 6  ($12)
  • Race 3: 50 cent Pick-3  1, 3, 5  w/ 4, 5, 6  w/ 1, 2, 5  ($13.50)
  • Race 6: 50 cent Pick-4  4, 7  w/ 7, 9, 10  w/ 1, 8, 10  w/ 3, 4, 11  ($27)
  • Race 8: $2 Double  8, 10  w/ 3, 4, 11  ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ chance of showers; highs in the mid-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 8th and 9th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST; Turf: FIRM

Post Time for Race 1 is 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Follow the Petals (4-1): Ran a winning race in latest when third by less than a length but encountered traffic at 3/16th; trainer/jock combo has gotten 22% to Winners’ Circle this meet 
  2. #10 – Jermy Street (9-2): Claimed out of last two races, the most recent one a winning one v. $20kN3L in gate-to-wire fashion; that won’t happen in here with the a trio of speedsters likely leading the way early; has tactical speed  and never OTB (6:2-2-2) at this distance on the turf
  3. #4 – Keep Your Distance (5-1): Cuts back a 1/16th which should be perfect distance as she’s led in deep stretch in last 3 turf routes but will be pressured early 

Race 2

  1. #5 – V.I.P. Code (2-1): An anticipated quick early pace sets up this race perfectly for this colt who should be stalking the early speed and make a winning move in mid-stretch
  2. #6 – Arazi Like Move (6-1): Won career debut at Del in mid-August as Post Time favorite and was “reported” as being gelded since… some thanks, eh?! SHOW runner that day won in next outing; jock S. Speith only mount on this card
  3. #2 – Stroll Smokin (3-1): Nearly pulled off 20-1 upset in Lrl Futurity in first turf try when blinkers were added; that 82 BRIS# two back is tops in this field

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Wind Tartare (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Seems that trainer C. Brown has discovered Lrl (4:2-2-0) and its nice purses as a place to ship not only stakes runners but allowance level types like this one; nice work tab since winning first level allowance on Mth turf 2-months back; note in France she finished one-length behind Rymska who raced in ’16 BC Juv. Filly Turf and won here recently
  2. #1 – Regal Roma (5-1): Deep Closer will need pace help but should get it from multiple sources; overcame rail assignment two back to win here but that was in an off the turf, one turn contest over a muddy main track
  3. #5 – Mini Hero (12-1): Ignored by ML oddsmaker this 5-year-old mare makes third start after layoff and has earned one of the top turf BRIS#s of this bunch; should get a nice stalking trip to get first run at leg-weary front runners 

Race 4

  1. #4 – Battle Tale (5-2): Continues to climb the class and speed figure ladder successfully; seems as though adding blinkers was key as this 6-year-old mare is just a head short of riding a 4-race win streak since the equipment change
  2. #6 – Toby Girl (4-1): SHOWed in first try versus winners at Sar but disappointed in latest at Prx only able to manage fourth when 5-2; stretch out to one mile after two sprints works for trainer A. Farrior (21%)
  3. #5 – Phantom Shot (3-1): A few who she’s beaten recently have won in their next outing but first time going one mile is a concern for this Capper; hard to toss any runner in here

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Chateau de Vizille (7-2): This group of geldings and one colt lack a “need the lead” type so one could inherit the early lead with top local turf rider because he actually reads the PP’s; was runner-up when trying to go gate-to-wire in only previous start at this one mile distance; never OTB when racing on Lrl lawn (4:1-2-1)
  2. #1 – Tennessee Wildcat (5-1): Probably the best (but only) TN-bred turf runner in MD and possibly elsewhere; trainer H. Smith has done a great job with this gelding who blossomed when put on turf (5:2-1-2); runner-up to him in latest came back yesterday and got beat at the wire
  3. #5 – Gold Braid (8-1): Was forwardly placed in only two turf tries which were two turn events versus better at Mth this summer; comes off a pair of dirt sprints which might put him on or near the lead setting pedestrian fractions; chance to upset at a price

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Cape Apache (6-1): Experiment going long on turf after 2-month layoff didn’t go well but was just 3+ lengths behind SHOW runner who graduated yesterday; best finish came prior to layoff when runner-up on a “good” turf; might be wishful thinking but Lrl area may get a few showers that mighty soften up what has been a rock-hard turf course of late; dropping down a level also helps
  2. #7 – Offshore Trip (7-2): Likely pace-setter should have company early as he finally flashed speed in latest in second start with blinkers; has improved speed figure-wise in each start since debut was washed off turf
  3. #13 – Put Em Up (8-1): Away since Aug. 11 when he didn’t run a lick on dirt as Post Time favorite in local debut, nearly 8-months since career debut on GP turf earning a 82 BRIS# in spipte of seventh-place effort

Race 7

  1. #10 – Stormy Embrace (4-1): Last raced on Aug. 20 when runner-up first time v. second level allowance foes earning career best BRIS#; this Mth-shipper has tackled better in the past and gets regular jock to come in for just this mount 
  2. #9 – Americana (6-1): Whenever trainer L. Jones ships in from Del one needs to take note, especially when it’s a Fox Hill Farm runner (re: Songbird; Havre de Grace, etc.); this filly originally started career on left coast w/ J. Hollendorfer on turf and synthetic then shipped east where she’s flourished sprinting on dirt (5:2-3-0); makes Lrl debut w/ natural hat trick in mind
  3. #7 – Tickled Pink (9-2): Got buried on Bel turf in minor stakes in latest; returns to dirt and level she can find success for trainer G. Motion; both wins have come here… debut on fast track and first level allowance two back in mud at today’s distance  

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – English Minister (5-2): 7-year-old is just 3 for 37 in his career but all 3 wins have come at today’s distance from just 9 starts; third race after layoff and a pair of fourth-place efforts, one behind recent G3 winner Just Howard by just a couple lengths
  2. #8 – Wolf Rock (3-1): Trainer K. Rubley who has been on a hot streak of late with turf runners brings this on in from Fair Hill after an eye-popping 101 BRIS#, a career best but could bounce
  3. #1/1A – Double Whammy/Oak Bluffs (12-1): “Whammy” has been disappointing of late so the interest is w/ entrymate who has been sprinting but was successful in the past when going one mile on turf (5:2-1-1)

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Six Tonsafun (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ In this very competitive open claimer nightcap, one could land on more than half of this field , so going with this recent two-time Also-Ran in allowance company; she has two wins in ’17, both came at Lrl, her only two here this year and at this distance versus better ($16k); Go Big then Go Home! Don’t forget… Lrl races Monday!
  2. #3 – Jersey Life (6-1): Speedy FL-bred makes first start after trainer T. Shaw claim for this same tag but he’s 0 for 14 in this scenario; regardless lone Lrl Lawn start was a victorious one at this level 11-months ago; the additional 1/16th should help not hurt 
  3. #4 – Crystal Pier (3-1): Lukewarm ML choice is 3 for 4 on Lrl grass, all have come at this distance and against similar or better foes; trainer/jock combo have won with 3 of 7 starters this meet 

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday October 7th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 10-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $4.20 (1st race), $3.40 (2nd), $8.20 (3rd), $8.80 (7th), $20.60 (8th) and $13.40 (10th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 Double paid $10.20 (cost: $12). Top Selections in 2017 are 318 for 1,130 (28.14%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (115: 37-25-19; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Broad Surprise (8th race: 3-1 M/L) was SCRATCHED.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (101: 17-12-13; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) Leather Goods (9th race: 12-1 M/L; 8-1 PT) no factor while racing in the 5-path entering the stretch and finished 9th just 5-lengths behind to winner.

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