The GQ Approach – Laurel October 7

by | Oct 7, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Chublicious

Chublicious was up late to defeat Blu Moon Ace in the De Francis Dash. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $6,043
  • Super High 5: $540
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Cutback in distance - Running a route race (1 mile or more) can improve a horse's fitness and help him learn to relax; it can also lead to a big effort when shortening up to a sprint.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 / #10 – Broad Surprise (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 9 / #11 – Leather Goods (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1: $2 Double  1, 3  w/ 2, 5, 6  ($12)
  • Race 3: 50 cent Pick-3  1, 2, 8  w/ 3, 7, 8  w/ 2, 7, 11  ($13.50)
  • Race 7: 50 cent Pick-4  8, 9, 11  w/ 10, 11  w/ 3, 11, 12  w/ 2, 5, 6  ($27)
  • Race 9: $2 Double  3, 11  w/ 2, 5, 6  ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the low-80’s
  • Scheduled turf races: 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th and 10th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST; Turf: FIRM

Post Time for Race 1 is 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #3 – Little Caton (7-5): Rare that a Pen shipper, albeit trained at Pim is a Morning Line favorite but race condition allows this 5x winner, the latest just 9 days ago to compete here because $4k races are not considered in eligibility
  2. #1 – Stormy Mama (9-2): Toss latest as she reared at the break after having a troubled trip at The Big T two back; J. Barnes who guided mare to two runner-up finishes returns to ride
  3. #5 – Flatter’s Secret (5-1): 2 for 3 at today’s distance, 5 for 11 on the Lrl dirt oval can bounce back after a forgettable run at Tim

Race 2

  1. #5 – Margarita Sunrise (7-2): Turf to dirt and drops a level for trainer K. Patterson (48% in ’17) brings jock A. Bochachica for the ride; couldn’t last the 6½ furlongs at Tim so cut back makes sense
  2. #6 – Union Blues (9-5): First start after K. Magee claim (23% on this angle) when runner-up at this level and not having the cleanest of trips… for the second consecutive start
  3. #2 – Icelake (4-1): A threat on the steep drop alone after twice trying the $25k level, one on turf, the other on dirt; did better on dirt hence he shows up here; X-Man should gun to the lead

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Black Prong (9-2): Have been liking this one since getting 18-1 in his debut only to see him e up short by a length; three races later still a maiden but continues to improve; will graduate soon
  2. #8 – Praise the Moon (5-2): Disappointed backers in latest when sent off 4-5 favorite on steep drop being unable to close enough ground late against a turf speed bias; same type of effort gets the job done today
  3. #2 – Red Clay Road (3-1): Threat to take this field gate-to-wire; missed doing so three back against similar; wasn’t as successful in when versus $25kMCL foes 

Race 4

  1. #3 – Bring Me Answers (5-1): While others still seek third lifetime victory, this 3-year-old earned hers at this level three races back; came up short at Tim for win #4 in latest when claimed  
  2. #8 – A J’s Amex (5-2): With the J. Navarro ban lifted, the controversial trainer ships in from Mth; this filly failed on a sloppy Del surface when 3-5; can makes amends back on fast track as she did at Pen and Prx
  3. #7 – Nairet (7-2): Draw a line through latest on turf… still doesn’t like it; also will ditch the blinkers after a two race experiment wearing them; seeks to break 0 for 11 at Lrl

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Royal Brown (6-1): Impressive maiden win but had it all her own way on the front end; same could happen again in first try against winners as there’s plenty more late runners than early speed 
  2. #7 – Reilly S (4-1): Back on turf after a better than expected showing at Tim, getting SHOW purse in first main track start
  3. #2 – Brindabella (9-2): Was 4:0-0-1 on dirt, sent off as 6-5 favorite when latest came off the turf (head-scratcher); might be a better value today; beat top pick three back when breaking maiden 

Race 6

  1. #4 – Bilko (7-2): Well backed in debut (7-2) but was tardy leaving the gate having to do too much going 5½ furlongs with bug boy in the irons; positive jock switch to D. Centeno
  2. #6 – Sir Madison (10-1): WV-bred FTS by Flatter out of a Not For Love mare shows just one workout at CT (4f 47 4/5) but little known trainer wins at 35% (7 for 20) clip with 1st time starters
  3. #3 – Playwright (5-2): Second start with blinkers in local bow after having Bill Mott calling the shots in during first four starts versus NY-breds 

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Where’s Dominic (4-1): Comes right back in this open claimer 3 weeks after getting up late to nip #2 (The Great Provider) who enjoyed a lone lead that day; this 10x winner from 44 starts has always done well at this level 
  2. #8 – Good Feng Shui (10-1): Been racing 5f on turf along East Coast tracks of late just begging for a bit more distance; the extra 1/16th should help, returning to Lrl lawn, scene of his last win exactly one year ago today
  3. #9 – Liberal Spin (12-1): Kitten’s Joy offspring has made a living racing in NY on turf while surprisingly has never won on it (26:0-5-4); appears to be the type who is always arriving late but never in time; 7-year-old takes big class drop for Lrl debut

Race 8

  1. #8 – Broad Surprise (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Didn’t get a clean start in debut and took a while to get out of first gear going 6f but when he did, made up a ton of ground running a sub 12 second final 1/16th behind a winner who will be a good one (Cordmaker)
  2. #11 – Oldies But Goodies (8-1): Home/MD-bred FTS by Maclean’s Music out of a Two Punch mare has clocked some sneaky fast works; got J. Pimentel to ride when he had a double call (#4 was the other); has the pedigree to win at first asking
  3. #1 – Nico Bree N Teej (6-1): Got SHOW purse in debut (July 7th) just behind entrymate who graduated in next outing; took a month off afterwards but has a quartet of works, the latest a bullet; should be gunning to the lead from rail assignment

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Leather Goods (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Makes eighth career start but first on turf since career debut sprinting; while “Outrun” was wide on the turn and got going late; key here is he’s matured, gets added distance and top local turf rider
  2. #3 – Kid Jeter (3-1): Runner-up in latest when going one mile versus similar; an ugly 1 for 22 always closing ground with a rush, but can’t seem to pass all rivals regardless of distance    
  3. #12 – Sippin’onbubbles (20-1): Need to toss latest which was nearly 3 months ago; whatever caused that miserable showing seems to have been corrected as he’s fired bullets in most recent two A.M. drills; will need pace help

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Greasedlightning (3-1): Adds blinkers and switches to the grass for fourth start after facing a number of next out winners in debut and second start, both sprinting; showed willingness to go further in latest and should take another step forward on the turf
  2. #5 – War Tweet (8-5): Runner-up in third start, second on turf, first going two turns when sent off as 6-5 favorite; trainer H. Smith gets 24% of runners to Winners’ Circle in second route race; adds blinkers
  3. #2 – Something Magical (10-1): A horrendous start in debut at the Big T and offered zero energy on dirt; this is strictly a pedigree play as there’s something magical (get it?) about Street Magician offspring in their first try going two turns on turf; hard to imagine trainer M. Eppler runners struggle in turf debut (0 for 26)

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday October 6th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 9-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $27.20 (2nd race), $5.60 (4th), $5.60 (5th), $8.60 (6th), $5.00 (8th) and $7.20 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R8-R9 $2 Double paid $17.80 (cost: $12). Top Selections in 2017 are 315 for 1,120 (28.13%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (115: 37-25-19; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Tempt Me Twice (8th race: 3-1 M/L; 3-2 PT) dueled inside, shook clear into the lane, widened under a stiff drive near mid-stretch then was fully extended to hold off as fast closing rival by a head and returned $5.00 to WIN, $3.40 to PLACE and $3.00 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (100: 17-12-13; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) Miss Mischievous (5th race: 9-2 M/L; 9-5 PT) obviously this capper wasn’t the only one who thought this one was worth a look as she was bet down to second choice, broke alertly while stalking the dueling leaders, moved4-wide on the turn and took command entering the stretch then pulled away under a drive to win by four-lengths and returned $5.60 to WIN, $3.80 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.

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