The GQ Approach – Laurel October 6

by | Oct 6, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Chublicious

Chublicious was up late to defeat Blu Moon Ace in the De Francis Dash. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $6,043
  • Super High 5: $540
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Subtle Class Drop - Some class drops -- e.g. from OPEN Claiming to Conditional Claiming for same Tag/Amount -- are bigger than they look, and horses making that move may hold a distinct advantage over their rivals.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 / #4 – Tempt Me Twice (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 / #8 – Miss Mischievous (9-2)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1: $2 Double  1, 5, 7  w/ 4, 6  ($12)
  • Race 3: 50 cent Pick-3  2, 3, 4  w/ 1, 4, 5  w/ 2, 5, 8  ($13.50)
  • Race 6: 50 cent Pick-4  3, 6, 12  w/ 3, 5  w/ 4, 6  w/ 7, 8, 9  ($18)
  • Race 8: $2 Double  4, 6  w/ 7, 8, 9  ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the upper-70’s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 8th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST; Turf: FIRM

Post Time for Race 1 is 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – The Zip Man (5-2): Closer amongst a field with plenty of early speed makes second start after D. Nunn claim but first was washed off turf versus similar 
  2. #7 – In Arrears (5-1): Such a promising 2-year-old has struggled this year while still earning checks; runner-up in turf debut in latest gives reason for hope
  3. #1 – Hot Mic (15-1): CT shipper gives turf a try and sheds blinkers after adding them three back and proceeded to put in worst 3 efforts of career

Race 2

  1. #6 – Cousin Stephen (7-2): Beaten favorite in last two races; gets E. Gonzalez back in the irons who was aboard last time he got to Winners’ Circle
  2. #4 – Big Joe Candy (10-1): Seems to have lost the early speed he had prior to C. Frock claim two back; should improve with move turf to dirt move
  3. #1 – Battery (2-1): First start after $5k claim as trainer A. Battuia removes blinkers, a winning equipment change in 1 of 2 other runners in the past

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Came Back (7-2): Last two have been washed off the turf which came back (get it?) in August; was runner-up to next out winner at this level when claimed just four races ago
  2. #3 – Ruth Less Blue (10-1): Sprinter didn’t care to stretch out to 7 furlongs in latest effort; returns to turf where he earned SHOW purse against one level higher
  3. #2 – Demon Buster (4-1): Beaten favorite when claimed by L. Gaudet in July for $15k and hasn’t raced since; makes turf debut but won and was third in two starts on synthetic

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Doukas (7-2): Been knocking on the door in these turf sprints and finally gets more real estate in which to run; trainer P. Schoenthal is 22% with sprint-sprint-route move with positive ROI
  2. #4 – Saint Abbey (12-1): Ran huge when 44-1 in first start in just over a year when fifth, less than 3-lengths behind a trio back in here (#6, #7, #11); to say the 6-year-old mare may have needed a race could be an understatement
  3. #1 – Abracadabra (6-1): Stretches out from turf sprints to one mile which this mare has win in three starts at that distance; may try to take this field gate-to-wire from rail post

Race 5

  1. #8 – Miss Mischievous (9-2): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Filly has been in versus elders her entire 8 race career while improving speed figure-wise over her past four efforts; comes off brief layoff but has been breezing the past few weeks
  2. #5 – Enterprise Value (8-5): Faced a tough first level allowance group of gals in latest and lacked stamina in the stretch to be OTB for just second time in 10 race career; should reverse fortunes here
  3. #2 – She Be Fierce (7-2): Claimed by C. Gonzalez from $25kMCL win, has faced much tougher group of winners in her last two; quick (14 day) turn around for a filly who may need more time between starts

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Cap’s Vow (2-1): Stands out in this race as far as her best BRIS# on the grass but she is just 1 for 16 while 6 times a bridesmaid; drops to level she can succeed but needs pace help
  2. #3 – Majestic Trick (5-1): Lynch gets the call on the drop after a number of sub-par efforts versus better; if she can avoid trouble exiting the starting gate she could be a factor late
  3. #12 – North Eight Street (6-1): There’s no “need the lead’ type in this two-turn event except for this gal; used to sprinting she should make an easy lead going two turns for the first time

Race 7

  1. #3 – Tiz a Diamond (2-1): Hard luck lady seems to find trouble as her last 4 of 6 starts are riddled with comments that indicate less than ideal trips; been getting beat by multiple next out winners
  2. #5 – Fleet Flame (10-1): Game filly but couldn’t hold lead late going 1 1/16 mile on turf in latest; shift to dirt and cut back to one mile on a fast track could prove to be a winning combination
  3. #2 – Proud Commander (8-5): Del-based trainer Larry Jones’ only entry on the card; this Proud Citizen filly needs plenty of rest between starts but boasts top Prime Power# and lone win came here in April

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Tempt Me Twice (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Boasts career best turf BRIS# and arguably has been facing tougher than the others in here who have been facing winners; sure the 1 for 16 is a concern but the stretch out in second race after a brief layout should help bring out the best in him
  2. #6 – No More Talk (9-2): Returns to turf after a pair of dirt sprints; might be distance challenged but was less than 3-lengths behind a runner who won a G3 turf event here last weekend when going today’s distance
  3. #5 – All Alone (9-2): A long-time Also-Ran at this level hasn’t seen the Winners’ Circle since 2015; did finish ahead of top pick in here a while back but also lost to him as well

Race 9

  1. #8 – Expectations (3-1): Drops to bottom level seeking second career win; beaten favorite in latest was transferred to higher win percentage trainer (C. Gonzalez) who gives a leg up to J. Torres as this team is winning at 29% clip at the current meet
  2. #9 – Hail the General (12-1): Blinkers go back on after one race, his latest w/o them which proved he belongs competing against $5kN2L and not $10k; has a pair of SHOW efforts at this level, one was at this 7f distance
  3. #7 – Turbo Booster (7-2): Very lukewarm backing due to being a vet scratch the last 3 times entered to race; majority of foes have early speed so with his closing style and stretching out one panel, if he’s fit he should win

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday October 1st at Laurel had 6 winners from the 11-race card (5 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $9.00 (1st race), $4.40 (2nd), $8.80 (4th), $6.80 (8th), $3.60 (10th) and $6.40 (11th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 Double paid $25.60 (cost: $8) and the R10-R11 $2 Double paid $12.60 (cost: $12). Top Selections in 2017 are 311 for 1,111 (27.99%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (114: 36-25-19; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Wiggle Room (6th race: 4-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) was rated back after an alert start, angled towards the rail, dropped well off the pace leaving the far turn, remained inside into the lane, steadied lacking some room in mid-stretch, shifted out but failed to menace and finished 8th.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (99: 16-12-13; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) How’s Your Sugar (9th race: 8-1 M/L; 6-1 PT) three-wide on the first turn, raced between horses, was lightly steadied entering the far turn, angled to four path at the head of the stretch and weakened to finish fifth.

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