The GQ Approach – Laurel October 1

by | Oct 1, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Chublicious

Chublicious was up late to defeat Blu Moon Ace in the De Francis Dash. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $4,902.41
  • Super High 5: $1,718.42
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
House Silks - This is a “play against” angle, especially in a maiden race. If the connections did not make their own silks available to the track for the jockey to wear, then what are the odds any of them will show in hopes of getting in a Winner's Circle photo with the jockey not donning the barn's silks?!
Best Bet of the Day
Race 6 / #4 – Wiggle Room (4-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 9 / #7 – How’s Your Sugar (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1: $2 DOUBLE   2, 6  w/ 3, 4  ($8)
  • Race 3: 50 cent Pick-3  4, 5, 6  w/ 2, 3, 4  w/ 1, 2, 10  ($13.50)
  • Race 8: 50 cent Pick-4  2, 5  w/ 6, 7, 10  w/ 1, 3, 6  w/ 3, 7, 8 ($27)
  • Race 10: $2 Double  1, 3, 6  w/ 3, 7, 8  ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the upper-60’s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 8th and 9th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST; Turf: FIRM

Post Time for Race 1 is 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – He’s One Wild Dude (5-1): Gate-to-wire victor versus N3L just two weeks ago is offered for $3k less than $15k open claiming condition which could be viewed as a yellow flag but he’s never been off the board at this distance (3:1-1-1) or over the Lrl lawn (6:3-1-2); shouldn’t get much early pressure
  2. #2 – Paddy O’Wagon (5-2): All 15 starts have been on the grass with majority coming at Mth including latest outing against $20kN3L earning a 90 BRIS# which was the fifth straight race of speed figure improvement; first start at Lrl since being third in career debut sprinting 
  3. #5 – Prime Time Man (2-1): First race off A. Eubank’s claim takes the mandatory step up but has won versus similar in the past; all 4 career wins have come at this distance

Race 2

  1. #4 – Wedgewood Blue (2-1): Has improved throughout the year or running low on bottom level maiden competitors; might be the latter but this race will yield a winner and she seems to be the best of this poor lot
  2. #3 – Little Miss Jojo (3-1): Disappointed MD State Fair-goers at Tim when a rough start or the bull ring didn’t agree with her as she was a badly beaten favorite; there’s a trio who will be fighting for the lead which will help here late running style
  3. #6 – Quickasaflash (7-2): Don’t have a warm and fuzzy feeling about her making first start in nearly 6-months while last jock to ride her will be on #3; just two works since April but if she hasn’t regressed she is as likely to get diploma in here as any others

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Thoristic (7-5): Beaten favorite in latest at Del one level higher; was runner-up in the two prior and needs to shake Seconditis (14:1-6-2)
  2. #5 – Cape Force (3-1): Have to wonder why the layoff after breaking maiden back in March; only shows one workout since April but have to respect trainer B. Tessore on this angle (23%)
  3. #4 – Beltway Bob (15-1): Gets back on turf in third race after layoff; lone turf try ($25kMCL) came in last race prior to 4-months on the sidelines, which wasn’t bad while may have discovered an issue afterwards 

Race 4

  1. #3 – Drops and Buckets (5-2): No reason to think she’ll have a miraculous turn around in form switching from two turf tries as badly beaten favorite in both but with addition of blinkers the trainer stats for H. DePaz light-up with positive ROI
  2. #4 – Northernstreetgal (3-1): Stopped in latest on Bel turf after being on the lead through first half; hard to gauge lone dirt effort as it came in NY-bred minor stakes v. just 3 rivals and trailed throughout… not a shock; sheds blinkers
  3. #2 – Mila Jane (7-2): Very dull debut when sent off as 9-5 favorite; made up some ground late over a “good” Del surface travelling 6 furlongs; stretch out to one mile seems to be a better distance based on pedigree 

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Slick Man (7-2): Will need to take a big step forward speed figure wise to make amends for nose loss after nice rail run late; most foes will be vying for early lead so a pace meltdown is likely
  2. #1 – Piercinator (7-2): Comes off two maiden wins (was DQ’d from first one), the latest is by far the strongest in this field; rail assignment is a concern though and whether K. Davis can hold onto whip
  3. #10 – Country Club (9-5): Likely the speed of the speed coming from trainer W. Ward barn after breaking maiden going 5 furlongs on Mth turf against $25kMCL; barn jock (29% w/ Ward runners) in town to ride two on the card (also in R8)

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Wiggle Room (4-1): *** BEST BET *** Showed improvement on grass from debut to latest (third start) when bridesmaid going 5½ furlongs making up ground late on a somewhat speed favoring turf; additional 1/16th mile will help her the most
  2. #9 – Conjecture (5-2): Likely Post Time favorite but could be vulnerable going the additional 1/16th; does drop a level after missing out on turf runs v. $25kMCL in a pair of off the turf events
  3. #11 – Go Danica (12-1): Closed a ton of ground late in first effort on turf at this level when very wide; gets 7 lb. break with switch to bug C. Carrasco who has held his own on the turf 

Race 7

  1. #9 – Starcast (5-1): Interesting Tapizar FTS as owner/breeder Dark Hollow Farm tend to sell v. race; like the brief work tab especially going 5 furlongs from gate in latest after 4f bullet; trainer/jock has won with 4 of 11 over the past year
  2. #7 – Marvelous Martha (6-1): Was much the second best in debut to a runaway winner going 4 furlongs around Tim bull ring; gate-to-wire possibility here
  3. #1 – Irish Access (8-1): Got an education in debut when tardy away from gate but rallied wide past rivals to get up for the SHOW purse; rail assignment possesses a new challenge but could be up to it break T. Keefe/S. Russell 0 for 15 draught at current meet

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Paris Cruise (7-2): Filly takes on the boys after being bridesmaid in debut on dirt at Kee back in April, when chilly on the board at 5-1 considering most W. Ward FTS fire at first asking; note Ward also had ML fav. #10 – Pocket Book but decided to scratch… hmmm    
  2. #5 – Stunning Baby (8-1): This FTS by Awesome Again out of a Bernstien mare who was a graded stakes grass winner has shown his liking for the grass in the A.M. as well; it’s likely that stable jock has been on him for works at owners farm; wonder if his name was influenced by Seinfeld episode (re: Elaine’s BF doctor overuse of “stunning” meaning good or bad)
  3. #9 – Street Copper (4-1): Run a huge (92) BRIS# in latest when he “hung” as favorite, missing by a head when blinkers were added; had traffic troubles in prior one at Sar

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – How’s Your Sugar (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Appears to be enough early speed in here to help him motor home late; gets H. Karamanos back in the irons after two sub-par efforts over a “not so firm” Lrl turf course; has won in last 2 of 3 when turf is listed as ‘firm”
  2. #10 – Dothat Dance (5-2): Hard to trust as a top pick (6:0-3-3 on Lrl lawn); hung as favorite in latest going 9f one race after giving up late lead in minor stakes here to Just Howard who won a G3 yesterday; cut back could do that trick to get third career win in twenty-second outing
  3. #6 – Bealestreet Dancer (4-1): Was on this one in last time out after seeing trouble encountered two back, yet was “empty” as betting favorite with first-time blinkers; can make amends here

Race 10

  1. #5 – Margie’s Money (6-5): Visually impressive debut going gate-to-wire earning 84 BRIS# winning by six-lengths then was flattered by runner-up as she came back to graduate in her next start    
  2. #1 – Deep Red (10-1): Hasn’t been off-the-board since adding blinkers three races back when earning her diploma; gets fourth different jock in as many races since then… can’t do much better than HOF E. Prado
  3. #3 – Gibby (5-2): Prx shipper actually made winning debut at Mth in August by 4½-lengths when sent off as 9-5 favorite; a trio of maintenance works appears she’s still in good shape

Race 11

  1. #3 – Classic Wildcat (3-1): 11-year-old makes third start after layoff while improving on speed figures which sets this gelding up for a top effort in a race whose “non-winner since April 1” condition is the very day of his last win
  2. #8 – Drive At Nite (6-1): Gets the 7 furlong distance which gives this Closer the best chance to get to Winners’ Circle; an honest runner who always picks up a check when in at this level
  3. #7 – Turbin (4-1): May have found the right group/condition to be successful even though has he’s been mixing it up against a level higher and open $5k claimers; needs pace help

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday September 30th at Laurel had 11 winners from the 12-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $2.20 (1st race), $4.60 (2nd), $5.00 (3rd), $4.40 (4th), $3.40 (6th), $6.80 (7th), $4.40 (8th), $3.80 (9th), $8.60 (10th), $16.80 (11th) and $6.80 (12th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R6-R8 .50 Pick-3 paid $6.65 (cost: $6), the R9-R12 .50 Pick-4 paid $365.40 (cost: $18) and the R11-R12 $2 Double paid $49.60 (cost: $12). Top Selections in 2017 are 306 for 1,100 (27.82%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (113: 35-25-19; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Taperge (7th race: 5-2 M/L; 4-1 PT) got in a nice stalking position between rivals into the first turn, down the backstretch and waited for run entering the stretch, bullied her way through an opening, dug in determinedly but was passed on the far outside by stablemate, thus coming up one length short and returned $5.20 to PLACE and $3.00 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (98: 16-12-13; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) Momma Doolittle (12th race: 12-1 M/L; 16-1 PT) wide, faltered leaving the three-eighths pole, was eased through the lane and walked off.

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