The GQ Approach – Laurel September 30

by | Sep 30, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Chublicious

Chublicious was up late to defeat Blu Moon Ace in the De Francis Dash. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,775
  • Super High 5: $2,774
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Lightbulb Theory - When a horse finally breaks maiden after repeated failures, the lightbulb in his/her head may have come on and s/he may run very well in her next race, too.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 / #7 – Taperge (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 12 / #9 – Momma Doolittle (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1: 50 cent Pick-5  1  w/ 3, 4, 7  w/ 2, 4, 7  w/ 3, 5, 8  w/ 2, 4, 5  ($41)
  • Race 6: 50 cent Pick-3  2, 10, 11  w/ 3, 7, 8  w/ 2, 3, 7  ($13.50)
  • Race 9: 50 cent Pick-4  4, 7  w/ 3, 11, 14  w/ 1, 3, 4  w/ 4, 5, 9 ($27)
  • Race 11: $2 Double  1, 3, 4  w/ 5, 9  ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the upper-60’s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th and 11th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST; Turf: FIRM

Post Time for Race 1 is 12:30pm EDT

Race 1 is the Bert Allen Stakes ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Special Envoy (2-5): Trainer A. Delacour said following this one’s eight-length win last out against similar in August that this would be the next spot, and he arrives here looking for a Hat Trick of VA stakes in 2017; has versatility to lead, stalk, or close, though inside post makes a sharp break imperative; shows three solid works since easy-as-can-be Hansel victory and reunites with jock D. Centeno; the one to beat here 
  2.  #6 – Speed Gracer (6-1): Ran third in the first two VA-bred stakes of the year and last out sprung a front-running 12-1 upset against allowance foes; jock J.D. Acosta, who won last with this one, stays aboard; trainer S. Cooney always arrives with live runners for VA races and this one figures to be no exception 
  3. #7 – River Date (3-1): Five-year-old has changed hands in three straight races, one streak, at least, that’ll be snapped here; Pioneerof the Nile gelding has never tried turf; though Pioneer’ hasn’t been a great turf sire, he hasn’t been bad either and himself won a race on the green (plus four graded stakes on synthetic); dam How Bout Tonight won once on the turf, too, and recorded her best-ever speed figure on turf; if he can maintain his dirt form here, he’s a factor

Race 2

  1. #4 – Not Above Love (7-2): Adds blinkers, drops a couple levels and stretches out to one mile in hopes the trifecta of changes will help her find the Winners’ Circle; gets fifth different jock in as many starts
  2. #7 – Dear Charlotte (6-1): Huge late run at Tim while she hit the board in previous two fast track starts v. similar; best three finishes of 17 race career have come at this one mile distance  
  3. #3 – Communion Money (8-5): Bel-based trainer R. Handal continues to ship class droppers in but so far is 0 for 6 at the meet; has lost early speed since being transferred from G. Contessa

Race 3 is the Brookmeade Stakes ON THE TURF

  1.  #7 – Sweet Sandy (6-1): Won the Backer two back over yielding ground, and follow-up in G3 company wasn’t bad; winner of that one (Harmonize) is a former G1 winner; will be running late and major challenge here is whether sufficient pace will develop; in career-best form now and only runner here who offers value on the Morning Line
  2. #4 – Queen Caroline (2-1): Ran willingly enough to be third two back over yielding ground she may not have liked at even-money; follow-up was a decent second at Suffolk, defeated by post-time favorite; may appreciate firmer turf than last local try and figures to be close to a likely moderate pace
  3. #2 – Armoire (8-5): Hacked up four-length lead in the final furlong last out after perfect trip got her through on rail; has finished behind two of today’s rivals, which makes her a tough sell at 8-5, but no question A. Delacour and D. Centeno know where the wire is, and she more than others fits here

Race 4

  1. #3 – Sue Me (7-2): Second best in debut to a nice MD-bred Shackleford gelding, gaining late but a bit green as he refused to change leads in the stretch; adds Lasix and turned in an eye-popping 5f bullet (59 3/5) last weekend and should relish the extra furlong
  2. #5 – Strident (8-1): This Phipps Stable/McGaughey runner showed nothing in two starts at age 2 so he was turned out for 6-months to mature; back training in earnest the past two months; have to believe he’s ready this time around
  3. #8 – Major Metro (6-1): Could the 10th time be the charm? Only if trainer J. Napravnik has figured out how to get this gelded son of Great Notion to switch leads; doubt that adding blinkers today will help with that issue

Race 5 is the Punch Line Stakes ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Two Notch Road (8-5): Old-timer (10y0!) rallied to get up late two back vs. similar and has made a nice living beating up on Va-breds the last couple of years… G3 Turf Monster, which came up very salty, was a little too tough for him last out but back among his own kind has every right to run well here… He’s the one they’ll need to beat
  2. #5 – Awake the Day (8-1): Reasonably likely trainer Bailes picks the Oakley over this spot for this mare (though the Oakley might be tougher)… If not, she’s capable of running well here… Had an adventurous trip when fourth in the Camptown last out, rank and steadied early, loomed, but faded late… A better break puts her in the early running here and gives her a fighting shot to run on late 
  3. #4 – Homespun Hero (5-1): Three-back fourth in the Meadow Stable might have been better than it looked; a slow break left this one a lot to do and he stuck with it to earn fourth… If he can break more alertly, that would help here… Sheldon Russell back aboard also a good sign, and this one has run credibly in a couple of follow-up efforts and shows a sharp work on 9/23 in preparation

Race 6 is the Oakley Stakes ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Northern Eclipse (5-2): Just held against similar to win the Camptown three back, and she’s continued to run well since… Struggled through an adventurous trip in last but rallied for the show spot and looks poised to run well here… Jockey Davis and trainer McMahon have done well together
  2. #11 – Exaggerated (2-1): Company lines — note presence of the terrific Lady Shipman, G1 winner Lady Aurelia — and resume say this one’s the winner… But 2-1 odds give pause on a runner who finished eighth against similar at 3-10 two back and hasn’t seemed the same horse in her last two… No value on offer here, but if right, she wins this for fun… Scratched out of the Sensible Lady 9/16 to await this spot
  3. #10 – Do What I Say (6-1): Hard-luck Street Magician filly found the range three back to upset the Gilpin and followed that up with a credible try when third in the Camptown over yielding ground she may not have relished… Didn’t show much in last after a wide journey, but her best is good enough here… Wheeling back on less than two weeks’ rest says she’s ready to roll

Race 7 is the G3 Commonwealth Oaks ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Taperge (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Can boast best BRIS turf number (100) earned at Sar in latest going 1/16 miles further than she will in here; appears to be one who “can run all day” who will need pace help but should get it; part of trainer Chad Brown’s lethal 1-2 punch
  2. #8 – Chubby Star (6-1): Broke maiden in career debut which was 10 races back on this turf course; marks first time back since as she’s picked up fourth place purse in past three efforts (in two G3s and a minor stakes); has responded when a top tier jock has been in the irons, such as Jose Lezcano in here
  3. #3 – Rymska (2-1): Fifth in ’16 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf after being runner-up in G3 Miss Grillo in her U.S. debut; won lone ’17 start back in Feb., took 5-months off and has been showing a solid work pattern the past 3-months; this event seems to be a prep for another BC run

Race 8 is the G2 BWI Turf Cup ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Blacktype (9-2): Most consistent runner when it comes to BRIS#s as career best (101) is just a tick away from being tops in this field; got the job done in third outing after layoff v. eight foes in stakes caliber OC$100k turf tussle at Bel in latest; in-the-money 6 of 8 at this distance; needs to turn the tables on #2 Projected who has been 1-2 lengths better in both previous meetings
  2. #2 – Projected (9-5): Third race after a brief layoff and will shed blinkers just one race after they were added but hindered performance instead of helping; been runner-up six times v. just two wins, one by a nose from 6 races in U.S. this year when coming off an 18-month vacation following races in Europe to start career; one mile may not be enough real estate for this gelding 
  3. #3 – Tower of Texas (6-1): Ships in from north of the border for trainer Roger Attfield who also has one in R11 (G3 Commonwealth Derby); convinced WO-based jock Jesse Campbell to make the trip; favorite distance being a three-time starter in the G1 WO Mile fits best among G2 competitors; just 14 days since last race is quickest turn-around for this six-year-old since he was two and failed as 3-5 favorite that day

Race 8 is the G2 BWI Turf Cup ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Blacktype (9-2): Most consistent runner when it comes to BRIS#s as career best (101) is just a tick away from being tops in this field; got the job done in third outing after layoff v. eight foes in stakes caliber OC$100k turf tussle at Bel in latest; in-the-money 6 of 8 at this distance; needs to turn the tables on #2 Projected who has been 1-2 lengths better in both previous meetings
  2. #2 – Projected (9-5): Third race after a brief layoff and will shed blinkers just one race after they were added but hindered performance instead of helping; been runner-up six times v. just two wins, one by a nose from 6 races in U.S. this year when coming off an 18-month vacation following races in Europe to start career; one mile may not be enough real estate for this gelding
  3. #3 – Tower of Texas (6-1): Ships in from north of the border for trainer Roger Attfield who also has one in R11 (G3 Commonwealth Derby); convinced WO-based jock Jesse Campbell to make the trip; favorite distance being a three-time starter in the G1 WO Mile fits best among G2 competitors; just 14 days since last race is quickest turn-around for this six-year-old since he was two and failed as 3-5 favorite that day 

Race 9 is the Jamestown Stakes ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Yes to the Dress (3-5): Filly is just one of two in here to have visited Winners’ Circle in her young, three race career so far; did that in gate-to-wire fashion over a “good” Del main surface; not bred for turf and the surface isn’t a strong suit of trainer Ron Moquett’s (2 for 33 with first time grass runners) but the way Lrl turf has been playing, if she gets the lead she may not look back
  2. #4 – Graceful Request (6-1): Exits seventh-place finish in career debut on turf which occurred here six weeks ago but this daughter of Scat Daddy still an 81 BRIS# as the winner came back be victorious in her next outing; gets more favorable post in second start which shouldn’t see her 4-wide on turn as was the case in first effort
  3. #8 – Virginia Fable (8-1): Fractious prior to her first start nearly 3 months ago but engaged the early leader but could not keep pace; that was on dirt and afterwards waited 2-months to log a work followed by a bullet from the gate twelve days later; one of three Susan Cooney trainees in here (#1 and #4 are the other two) 

Race 10

  1. #14 – D J’s Favorite (4-1): KY-bred FTS by Union Rags out of an Indian Charlie mare cost a cool $200k at OBS June 2-year-old in training sale and trainer L. Rice wasted no time getting her ready to start career ASAP 
  2. #3 – Poco Del Sol (10-1): FTS from Preakness winning, freshman sire Oxbow out of a Southern Halo mare is sent out by trainer L. Gaudet (25% w/ 2-year-olds) for Calumet Farm who had another firster run second yesterday
  3. #11 – Saguaro Row (5-1): FTS with same bloodlines as top pick (different mares) hails from M. Stidham barn who has won with 20% of his debut MSW runners but still seeks first win at current meet (0 for 19); near perfect work pattern with latest a bullet from the gate going 5 panels

Race 11 is the G3 Commonwealth Derby ON THE TURF

  1.  #4 – Voodoo Song (8-5): Only runner who has ever had the lead at the first call, not to mention second and stretch call as well; 4 for 4 since joining Linda Rice’s barn, from $40k Claimer to G3 Saranac; hard to imagine that streak ending here considering he’ll face no early pressure and the Lrl turf has been fairly kind to early speed while yielding very fast fractions
  2.  #1 – Final Copy (6-1): Only competitor in this field to have earned a triple-digit BRIS# (101) which this gray did in her most recent effort when losing a headbob at WO going 3/8 mile further than he’ll have to today; that snapped a three-race win streak… all at WO; shows a quartet of works and appears to be retaining top form
  3. #3 – Just Howard (12-1): Emerging local turf start has won last three starts coincidently or not since adding blinkers; MD-bred son of English Channel is still learning as he’s been tough to rate; loves the distance and it’s the perfect time to see just how good he is when in against graded stakes foes

Race 12

  1. #9 – Momma Doolittle (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Only runner in here whose lone win came at this 7 furlong distance at Lrl to boot after a brief (45 day) layoff; it’s been 56 days since last race where she SHOWed and the winner came back to win again
  2. #5 – Gimme Kimmy (3-1): Exits turf race a few levels higher but previous two were on a fast Lrl main track, coming up 3+ lengths short of victory v. next level higher
  3. #4 – Pompano (7-2): Prevailed in mud at Tim sprinting 4 furlongs in latest when dropped to bottom level maidens from NJ-bred MSW and $25kMCL at Mth; based on breeding she should enjoy added distance; trainer/jock duo have been winning at a 23% clip at current meet

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday September 29th at Laurel had just 5 winners from the 10-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $7.60 (1st race), $7.40 (4th), $3.80 (7th), $7.00 (9th), and $3.20 (10th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R9-R10 $2 DOUBLE paid $15.20 (cost:$12) Top Selections in 2017 are 302 for 1,088 (27.76%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (112: 36-24-19; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) My Sister Caro (9th race: 5-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) break well with a trio of speed runners then settled behind those into the far turn 4-wide, got encouragement entering the stretch and began to close in on the leaders then took command at the 1/16th pole to pull away convincingly and returned $7.00 to WIN, $4.00 to PLACE and $3.20 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (97: 16-12-13; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) Jarvis Steel (8th race: 15-1 M/L; 7-1 PT) sprinted clear to early lead, took pressure from his outside into the turn while in hand, shook clear of that one entering the stretch, held sway through the lane but could not hold off eventual winner while being runner-up just one-half length behind the winner and returned $6.40 to PLACE and $4.80 to SHOW.