In Focus: Wagering Delaware Owners Day

by | Sep 29, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Top Stories

Rose Brier

Marengo Road. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

Our In Focus Guide offers the most in-depth analysis and commentary on the four stakes on Saturday’s Owners Day card at Delaware Park.

You can also click here to get a two-page PDF version of this guide.

RACE 4 – DTHA GOVERNOR’S DAY H.

RACE PARTICULARS: Race 4 (post time 2:36 p.m.), $75,000 purse, 1 mile 70 yards, three-year-olds and up

THE FIELD IN FULL

  1. Afleet Willy (7-2): Returned running two back over the strip but faltered last out after setting the pace while wide into the turn; can improve on third off a layoff, and while loss of jockey Carrasco is a blow, Torres and trainer Gonzalez have done well together. Figures to be forwardly placed early.
  2. Twocubanbrothersu (12-1): Defeated lesser last out, and it was getting pretty late on him towards the finish line; two of five to run back have won; another who figures to be up front early, but the question is whether he has the quality to be there late
  3. Warrioroftheroses (12-1): Hard-knocking 8yo finds a race full of other speed types; got away with a slow pace in last, and that won’t happen here; will need to find much better than recent form to factor here
  4. Tale of Life (6-1): Looked to be uncomfortable up the backside in last, then on hold on the far turn before finishing willingly; shows three good works in the interim; improved effort here would be no surprise, and Cintron in the irons a plus
  5. Marengo Road (9-2): This guy didn’t beat much in last — literally, as only three rivals faced him — but has kept plus company on the lawn; those include next out G1 winner Ascend and next out G3 winner Ghost Hunter; has shown ability, on turf, to run into a pace, and doing that here would be useful
  6. Langdarma (12-1): Trosclair trainee doesn’t win much — just 3-for-26 — and seems to be stuck at the N2X level; no apprentice allowance for bug boy here though track handicapper cuts him a weight break
  7. Dr Blarney (5-2): Win machine has certainly benefited from pseudo-existence of Suffolk Downs, winning six-of-six there in the last three years; but look at the odds of his recent starts: six straight at 7-5 or less, including two at 1-20; water’s a lot deeper here, there’s other speed, and expected short odds a little tought to take
  8. All Out of Aces (8-1): Yet another who figures to be involved early, this improving Larry Jones trainee enters with two straight wins, but both against lesser; still eligible for an N1X, he’ll need a big one here; each of last two has produced two next-out winners
  9. Fellowship (12-1): Has been keeping better company than these in general, and when dropped into N2X last out, won easily; was one of five from the WV Governor’s Stakes to win next-out; favorable pace scenario seems likely to develop here, and this Decker trainee could be tough to contain late

THE PICKS

  1. #9 Fellowship — Plentiful early speed should provide ideal pace to close into
  2. #1 Afleet Willy — Never worse than second at the trip
  3. #4 Tale of Life — Useful return last out, may appreciate mid-track post position
  4. #5 Marengo Road — Has kept stellar company on grass, stake winner on dirt

MULTI-RACE WAGERS

  • Race 4: Double, Pick 3
  • Race 6: Double, Pick 3
  • Race 8: Double, Pick 3
  • Race 9: Double, Pick 3
  • Race 10: Double, Pick 3
  • Race 11: Double

Race 8 Pick 3

  1. 1, 2, 9, 10
  2. 1, 2, 8
  3. 1, 12

Race 9 Pick 3

  1. 1, 2, 8
  2. 1, 9, 12
  3. 4, 5

Queen Caroline

Photo by The Racing Biz.

Race 6 — FIRST STATE DASH S.

RACE PARTICULARS: Race 6 (post time 3:30 p.m.), $75,000 purse, 5 1/2 furlongs, DEL-Bred/DEL-certified 2yo

FIELD IN FULL

  1. Gilgimesh (10-1): Tough to win on debut in stakes company, and this one’s only sib to race was winless in 13 tries
  2. Taxable Goods (10-1): Ran credibly while a bit green on debut against maiden claiming types; one of five to run back has won; Street Magician gelding was long odds in that debut effort; leading rider Carol Cedeno remains aboard
  3. Whereshetoldmetogo (4-1): Gave a pair of good efforts sprinting over the strip before getting thrashed against much better in the Sapling going a mile at MTH; the class relief here should help, and trainer Pecoraro is 31 percent when giving Lasix for the first time; not quite sure how to interpret Victor Lebron in to ride him for the first time
  4. Just Flashy (10-1): Third start in 32 days for this Wallace Neilson trainee who has run into a couple of the mor impressive loca winners in Prince Lucky (who’s here) and Rivington; may struggle to make the lead against these
  5. Prince Lucky (2-1): Impressive debut despite a sub-optimal trip when he was on hold mid-turn before coming between horses to draw off without feeling the whip; made the DelPark clocker’s report for his 9/25 work; could be a good one here and love that he won by stalking and pouncing
  6. Jamaican Don (8-1): Hard to know what to do with this Maryland-bred, DEL-certified runner based in Ohio; thrashed local maidens at TDN on debut but hard to know what he beat exactly; the race did produce one next-out winner; trainer DaCosta makes first career trip to DEL as trainer of record, brings in pilot De La Cruz
  7. Fenton’s Four (3-1): C. Gonzalez trainee wheels back on less than two weeks rest off a clear score as the chalk in last; they haven’t handled this horse like a horse they like much, running him twice for a claiming tag when he was eligible to waive the tag; has shown early zip
  8. Threes Over Deuces (8-1): Trainer Gary Capuano is 4-for-59 with debut runners in the last five years, and this guy is the first starter out of a dam who was winless

You can also click here to get a two-page PDF version of this guide.

THE PICKS

  1. #5 Prince Lucky – Looked like a potential star in debut
  2. #3 Whereshetoldmetogo – Class relief, cutback in distance, addition of Lasix all point to improved effort
  3. #4 Just Flashy – Has run into two buzz saws in two tries, including Prince Lucky
  4. #6 Jamaican Don – Mystery shipper offers potential of value

Lovable Lady

Photo by The Racing Biz.

Race 8 — GEORGE ROSENBERGER MEMORIAL STAKES

RACE PARTICULARS: Race 8 (post time 4:24 p.m.), $75,000 purse, 1 1/16 miles (turf), Fillies and mares three and up that have started at DEL in 2017

THE FIELD IN FULL

  1. Boreale (9-2): French import hasn’t quite lived up to connections’ hopes, with just a couple of placings from two stakes tries but did best Enchanteresse, who’s here, three back over the strip; last out was clear with run but faded to third
  2. Lift Up (6-1): Speed figs say this Dickinson trainee’s not good enough, but she’s won all three of her turf tries; two of her defeated rivals from her last are here, and her two-back win produced two next-out winners plus others who ran well; note that rider Cintron jumps ship to Boreale
  3. Nickyrocksforpops (12-1): May be a cut below her top rivals here; Rock Slide mare is winless over the DEL turf
  4. Wowwhatabrat (20-1): Will need to take a big step forward to get the money here
  5. Nawlins Kitty (15-1): Rubley trainee gave an improved effort last out to be third against allowance foes and retains right to improve here on third since layoff; she’s a bit intriguing, a horse that’s been handled like a good horse throughout her career, including three tries in stakes, two graded, including a win and DQ from the $100k Ta Wee; will need to show best early-career form
  6. Cayman Croc (15-1): First turf try for a runner who’s not bad on the dirt but has no real turf in her immediate background; she’s only really a “use” if you think she’ll improve here, and her background doesn’t really suggest that
  7. Enchanteresse (5-1): Decent try in last against a runner who’s now won three straight; just nipped three back by Boreale; Proctor trainee is likely to go hunting for the early lead under Pedroza and see how far she can go, and best efforts put her in the mix
  8. Arraign (8-1): Was long odds last out when up the track in the G3 Violet — a race that’s produced two next-out stakes winners — so class relief should help here; owns a win over the strip and is lightly raced enough that further improvement still possible
  9. Bishop’s Pond (7-2): Enters off a decisive win on the main track and has run some big ones on the lawn; three back was beaten just two lengths by Grand Jete, who two races later was second in the G1 Beverly D; trainer Jason Servis has a good record going dirt to turf, and a return to best form puts this one right in the mix
  10. Good Roll (15-1): Ran a big one last out, closing while on the wrong lead after a brief steady to just miss against Lift Up– but runners from the eight-hole and farther out are 0-for-25 at the trip here
  11. Analyze (15-1): Pretty mediocre try in first on turf, and sibs haven’t shown much on it either (1-for-10)
  12. Laur Net (15-1): Blinks go on, and two back effort in the De La Rose says she belongs with these — but far outside post has to be a concern
  13. Talkless Smilemore (15-1): Has lost five straight against N2X rivals on the lawn

You can also click here to get a two-page PDF version of this guide.

THE PICKS

  1. #2 Lift Up – Dickinson trainee must step up to make it four straight
  2. #1 Boreale – Has kept right company
  3. #9 Bishop’s Pond – Easy win on dirt in last, has competed versus better
  4. #10 Good Roll – Ran a big one in last despite trouble to just miss vs. Lift Up

Two Notch Road

Photo by The Racing Biz.

Race 9 — SMALL WONDER STAKES

RACE PARTICULARS: Race 9 (post time 4:51 p.m.), $75,000 purse, 5 1/2 furlongs, DEL-Bred or DEL-Certified fillies, 2yo

THE FIELD IN FULL

  1. Enchanted Star (4-1): Thrashed maiden rivals last out in first try on Lasix; returns on just two weeks’ rest, and good to see Torres remain aboard
  2. Monkey Mind (6-1): Trainer Nations won the First State Dash last year with debut runner Our Rombauer, attempts same feat here with this one; Archarcharch filly is a half to useful Monkey’s Medal, who’s earned nearly $300k in 47-race career; has been training forwardly
  3. Buff’s in Love (15-1): Buffum filly impressed on debut but was a somewhat indifferent fifth in follow-up; her win two back was trainer’s only score of the year
  4. Malandrina (10-1): Exclusive Quality filly’s sibs haven’t done much, and we’d like trainer Rodriguez to have a bit more of a resume before taking his firsters in stakes
  5. Sally’s Wolf (8-1): Was clearly best last out but had to drop to bottom to find beatable rivals; beaten opponents have been 0-for-5 in follow-ups
  6. Sweet Tweet (6-1): Fourth time was the charm for this Graydar filly, who did it all on the front end last out
  7. All Good Times (10-1): Not sure what she beat last out, but this Elizabeth Brand trainee sure beat ’em like a good thing, winning off by 10; cutback from a mile to 5 1/2 furlongs a concern, though, as she seemed outfooted going 6
  8. Pikachu Princess (5-1): Not inclined to judge last, in the White Clay Creek, too harshly; she was a bit slow into stride and then wide on the turn but stuck with it to just miss the show spot; just one of two mounts on the afternoon for veteran rider Mario Pino
  9. Obvious Two (10-1): Blinks go on for a runner who broke her maiden at TDN, then went fishing in deep waters when 56-1 in the G2 Spinaway; gets major class relief here, but the open question of how good TDN maidens are remains to be answered
  10. High Sierra (20-1): Didn’t show much in debut, must step forward in a big way here
  11. Misdriven (20-1): Has just a pair of thirds from four tries to date
  12. Queen Nekia (10-1): Has done best work on turf and around two turns

You can also click here to get a two-page PDF version of this guide.

THE PICKS

  1. #8 Pikachu Princess – Last was better than it looks; veteran Pino in the irons a plus
  2. #1 Enchanted Star – Miles the best in last
  3. #2 Monkey Mind – Nations barn won 2016 First State Dash with a debut runner, speaks highly of this miss
  4. #9 Obvious Two — G2 waters much too deep, this group figures more to her liking
Two Notch Road

Photo © www.HoofprintsInc.com.

Race 10 — TAX FREE SHOPPING DISTAFF STAKES

RACE PARTICULARS: Race 10 (post time 5:18 p.m.), $100,000 purse, 6 furlongs, DEL-Bred or DEL-Certified fillies and mares, 3yo and up

SELECTIONS

  1. #1 Hailey’s Flip (2-1) – Formful runner’s never been worse than third at the trip and has two wins over the strip; won here two back in the slop and last out chased impressive repeat winner Crabcakes; shows bullet work in preparation
  2. #12 Lucky in Malibu (4-1) – First-time visitor to Delaware Park owns two wins at the trip; was a well-beaten fourth behind Hailey’s Flip two back but made amends with win last out; will be running late and could be compromised by possible lack of early pace
  3. #9 Sunshine Included (5-1) – Two wins over the strip included a victory in last year’s Small Wonder over Hailey’s Flip, but that runner seems to have surpassed her this year; Pecoraro trainee likely to gun for the early lead and hope for the best
  4. #8 Camille Claudel (12-1): Best recent result might have been four-back fourth in the What A Summer at LRL behind hard-hitters, including Sweet On Smokey; first off the claim for trainer Downing, this miss shows a couple of moderate works in preparation; fitness not a concern as her first two tries off five-month break came around two turns

You can also click here to get a two-page PDF version of this guide.

 

Race 11 — NEW CASTLE STAKES

RACE PARTICULARS: Race 11 (post time 5:45 p.m.), $100,000 purse, 6 furlongs, DEL-Bred or DEL-Certified 3yo and up

SELECTIONS

 

  1. #5 Winplaceorshowono (4-1) – Spots rivals some experience but talent is there; has made all four career starts locally; winner of last returned to be fifth in G3 Gallant Bob; buried down inside in last on day when mid-track was preferred spot
  2. #4 Flying Alex (6-1) – Now-injured jock V. Carrasco has made just 36 starts at PEN this year – three for this Mike Gorham trainee, who’s won two of them; was eager to go when winning N1X last out, and two of his rivals have won next out; should be close up early
  3. #3 Final Prospect (8-1) –Infrequent winner has kept some pretty tough company, including last out the improving It’s the Journey; just missed in this event a year ago and in third start off a layoff, with a bit of class relief, rates a shot to run well here
  4. #6 Stolen Love (2-1): Not inclined to take favoritism on this guy, particularly given blah record at the trip, but has caught some tough fields and ran well enough last out while chasing speed at TIM; trainer scoring at 45 percent at DEL this meet