The GQ Approach – Laurel July 8

by | Jul 8, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $5,207.50
  • Super High 5: no carryover
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
3rd race after layoff - Horses often peak in their third race after a layoff of 60 days or more.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 / #7 – Fed Up Fired Up (4-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 2 / #4 – Backseat Driver (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1: $2 DOUBLE   4, 7, 8  w/ 4, 5 ($12)
  • Race 3: $0.50 cent Pick-3  3, 4, 5  w/ 1, 3, 7  w/ 2, 8, 10 ($13.50)
  • Race 6: $0.50 Pick-5  7, 8  w/ 1, 2, 7  w/ 2, 3, 7  w/ 1, 2, 9  w/ 1, 7 ($54)
  • Race 9: $2 DOUBLE   1, 9  w/ 1, 2, 7 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy; highs in the low-80s
  • Scheduled Turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th and 9th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST; Turf: FIRM

Post Time for 1st race is 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Papa Vinny (7-2): Best of a poor lot of maidens giving grass a go and based on a small sampling this gelding has earned best turf BRIS# which occurred in latest when shedding blinkers
  2. #8 – Not a Coupon (3-1): Trainer E. Allard (25% in ’17) makes Lrl Summer meet debut w/ second time starter from another barn who showed late foot in debut on the AP grass sprinting 5f when 22-1
  3. #4 – Miss My People (6-1): Gets fourth different jock in the irons in as many career starts, all which have been “Fugly” (twice 9th and twice 10th); glimmer of hope is in turf debut finished ONLY 9 back in MSW  

Race 2

  1. #4 – Backseat Driver (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ 3-year-old takes on her elders for first time in twelfth career start; has shown signs of promise in a few past races, particularly two SHOW finishes in as many starts going today’s distance; positive jock switch
  2. #5 – Cheryl’s Way (5-2): This 6-year-old mare has a tough time getting to the races having been just 3 times in her career, with a two-year layoff prior to latest which was two months ago; seems as if owner/trainer R. Vukelic will only run her when she’s got a shot
  3. #2 – Star Touch (7-2): Takes second consecutive class drop since coming off a short layoff; adding blinkers in past two haven’t helped but the stay on as H. Karamanos takes over for L. Gaudet… the two are 2 for 6 over the past year

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Black Prong (8-1): Home/VA-bred FTS by Wiseman’s Ferry out of a Horse Chestnut mare makes it a family affair for trainer Reid Nagle (23%) who obviously has been working this one on the farm… don’t believe only two official works to date and most recent one was May 27
  2. #5 – Major Anthem (5-2): 33rd time will be the charm, right?! This winless 5-year-old gelding has been a Cash Cow for owner/trainer Jackie Savoye; he dances every dance but arrives on the scene late; thoughts to self are “do you need your head examined?!” thinking today is graduation day
  3. #4 – Icelake (3-1): Continues to drop in class seeking maiden win; typical move for trainer R. Jenkins when runners aren’t successful on dirt, try them on turf; regardless of the fact this gelding isn’t bred for the grass, he managed to earn SHOW money in turf debut in latest outing    

Race 4

  1. #7 – Bungalow (9-2): A case of those in here have proven they cannot win so why not go with a FTS, like this Home/FL-bred by Shackleford out of a Smarty Jones mare who hails from the high profile Glen Hill Farm barn; love the evenly spaced work pattern, most recent from the gate just 5 days ago
  2. #1 – Godlovesasinner (6-1): BRIS#s have been climbing since dropped in for a $40k tag three races back; another drop today might earn a diploma as he SHOWed at this level, just 2-lengths behind winner back in Dec.
  3. #3 – Shine Bright (2-1): Everyone gravitates to trainer G. Motion runners but truth be told he’s 0 for 9 at the current meet; beaten favorite at Pid in latest but SHOW runner, who was 5+ back returned to get maiden win; cut back to 6f gives best chance to visit Winners’ Circle

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Doukas (5-2): Beat $15k open claimers in last start when dropped in class first start for trainer P. Schoenthal; this outfit is all about winning, at any cost so another drop does not set off any warning signals
  2. #10 – Fortutious (12-1): Though the result (6th) doesn’t indicate so but this mare earned the best last race BRIS# of this group primarily because she was in v. tougher; same type of effort today will light up the tote and kill plenty P6 tickets from the start
  3. #2 – More Stormyweather (6-1): At first glance looks like a step up but this is actually a step down in class based on last turf start v. dirt; love More Than Ready runners on the turf; stalking trip under jock S. Hamilton can get it done

Race 6

  1. #7 – Gimme Kimmy (5-1): Need to draw a line through the shot in the dark try on the turf when in v. winners for the first time; trainer W. Komlo reclaimed this gal out of her maiden win so he knows her well and should return to good form on dirt
  2. #8 – Bring Me Answers (5-2): Loser by double-digits in her past three outings takes appropriate class drop trying to regain form she lost shortly after trainer K. Magee claimed her from Sagamore Farm
  3. #3 – Crazy Bernice (12-1): Might be insane like “Crazy Eddie” thinking Bernice has a shot but trainer J. Reynolds puts blinkers on (14%) and switch from turf to dirt minus H. Karamanos (bailed to ride #8) but K. Davis will get this one engaged early

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Fed Up Fired Up (4-1): *** BEST BET *** Certainly describes my attitude based on some personal struggles of late, but enough about me… this gal won her lone try at this 9 furlong distance on the grass when breaking her maiden over a year ago; last four turf efforts, all at 8½ furlongs while willing late in each; beaten favorite in latest and jock switch
  2. #1 – Faire Mi (6-1): Has the pedigree to go 9 furlongs on the grass though BRIS figure doesn’t think so; given no chance (66-1) in turf debut three back running evenly; two best efforts have come in only two at two turns
  3. #2 – Vaughn (8-1): Well look who finally shipped a runner from NY (trainer D. Jacobson) for the current meet; past turf tries indicate two turns is where he’ll find success; been steadily training at Bel since she last raced in mid-March

Race 8

  1. #3 – Ice Tea (6-1): This group lacks early speed so landed here as jock upgrade to K. Davis gets aboard and usually can get those w/ natural speed to the front; never OTB (3:1-1-1) at this one mile distance
  2. #2 – Mischievous Dan (10-1): Runner he beat by 5-lengths in N2L win came back yesterday win for that same condition so all of a sudden this guy is looking like a good value; trainer/jock combo is 5 for 10 over the past year
  3. #7 – Brother Slick Nick (12-1): Amazingly in 17 career starts has only run on a fast, main dirt track twice and won both; today will be #3 as he exits a turf effort better than previous ones which came prior to a brief layoff  

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Sazerac Girl (7-2): Prudent claim for trainer P. Schoenthal back in Feb. (6:1-3-0 since) in spite of this guy only being 2 for 25 lifetime, those 10 runner-up efforts pay the barn bills and then some; have faith win #3 can come v. these foes breaking a string of 3 consecutive seconds
  2. #1 – Northern Eclipse (9-5): Speed of the speed from the rail gets good gate rider J.D. Acosta; might be vulnerable as #4 won’t give her any breathers in the early stages
  3. #2 – Clare’s Dowery (12-1): Classy filly has a late running style that will take advantage of leg-weary rivals in deep stretch; comes off short layoff; two back she was second best to superstar filly Shimmering Aspen

Race 10

  1. #1 – Souper Colors (5-2): Extended work tab for this 4-year-old NY-bred FTS by Super Saver out of a Giant Causeway mare who cost $180k as a two-year-old; the caution flag should be out being offered for $25k but there’s not much else in here to be afraid of
  2. #7 – Voo Dude (6-1): Seems to have been learning his craft in each of his three starts; fits at this $25kMCL level and just needs a clean trip in this sprint to prove he belongs
  3. #2 – True Cat (5-1): Third career start but first on a fast main track; didn’t care for mud in debut v. MSW then earned runner-up spot in $25kMCL turf sprint with a late charge under today’s rider A. Castrenze; third time could be the charm       

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday July 7th at Laurel had 8 winners from the 10-race card (5 Top Selection; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $9.00 (1st race), $15.20 (3rd), $3.20 (3rd), $6.80 (4th), $11.40 (5th), $4.20 (6th), $4.00 (7th), $6.60 (9th) and $7.00 (10th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 DOUBLE for $82.00 (cost: $12), R3-R5 $.50 Pick-3 for $27.95 (cost: $13.50) and R9-R10 $2 DOUBLE for $32.80 (cost: $6). Top Selections in 2017 are 195 for 723 (26.97%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (78: 25-19-13; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Malibu Sunset (9th race: 3-1 M/L; 9-2 PT) hustled to the early lead, took pressure into the turn, couldn’t sustain speed into the stretch and faded in the final furlong to finish 6th.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (68: 9-8-11; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) Stroll Smokin (2nd race: 6-1 M/L; 6-1 PT) took over between rivals nearing the half mile marker, dropped in and set a rated pace while handling some outside pressure, moved clear past the three-eighths, responded when roused right handed nearing the furlong marker and held firm to win by two-half lengths to return $15.20 to WIN, $6.00 to PLACE and $4.60 to SHOW.

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