The GQ Approach – Laurel July 7

by | Jul 7, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $3,679.21
  • Super High 5: $1,891.68
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Exits a “Key” Race - A “key” race is one where two or more horses came back to win in their next race, and horses coming out of the races often ran better than the figs might suggest.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 9 / #6 – Malibu Sunset (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 2 / #8 – Stroll Smokin (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1: $2 DOUBLE   5, 6, 7  w/ 1, 8 ($12)
  • Race 3: $0.50 cent Pick-3  3, 8, 9  w/ 3, 4, 8  w/ 1, 5, 7 ($13.50)
  • Race 6: $0.50 Pick-5  4, 5, 12  w/ 3, 4, 6  w/ 1  w/ 3, 6, 7  w/ 5, 12 ($27)
  • Race 9: $2 DOUBLE   3, 6, 7  w/ 5, 12 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ chance of showers; highs in the mid-80s
  • Scheduled Turf races: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 8th and 9th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: SLOPPY to GOOD; Turf: OFF

Post Time for 1st race is 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #6 – E Lizzy (3-1): MTO entry just missed by a head two back at this same condition and distance which was an off the turf event as well but this time will travel a 1/16th of a mile less
  2. #7 – Riverwalk Weekend (8-5): Another MTO runner sent out by trainer K. Magee who goes for natural Hat Trick but makes first start at Lrl; steps up in addition will find these a bit tougher than CT and Prx foes
  3. #5 – Enigma (2-1): Romped by 6-lengths on Pen grass after being switched to trainer W. Campbell’s barn; not sure how tough those foes were but 3 back missed by just a neck here v. better; best finish on an off track in 3 outings was a distant third

Race 2

  1. #8 – Stroll Smokin (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Home/MD-bred FTS by Stroll out of a Smoke Glacken mare should have natural speed from the gate and jock J. Miller typically gets her mounts on the early lead if they possess it
  2. #1/1A – Nico Bree N Teej/Fenton’s Four (4-1): FTS duo for trainer C. Gonzalez who hasn’t had many 2-yr-olds (1 win from 16 starters); “Nico” shows a jet-rocket propelled 5f work in :10 1/5 Bg which we’re assuming was actually a 1:02 1/5 as Equibase shows :10.22; “Fenton” cost half as much ($4.5k) as his entrymate but shows twice as many works and nicely spaced works
  3. #7 – Free to Trump (9-2): FTS by Freedom Child out of a Real Quiet mare should be an overlay as all the Liberal horseplayers won’t touch this one; like the work pattern which has a couple bullets and ending prep work with a gate

Race 3 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #3 – Bayshore Drive (4-1): Will try to repeat after beating N2L for the same tag; owns the best last turf race BRIS# in here but switch to dirt shouldn’t matter; F. Lynch has options since she can either be on or just off the lead
  2. #8 – Scarlett’s Ransom (10-1): Wanted to try in ninth career outing though not bred to make her living on the green, trainer J. Robb must have had more than a hunch as he keeps J. Toledo on, those two have won with 2 of 5 runners at current meet; should take more action at the windows now that is event is on the main track
  3. #9 – Greeley’s Bustnout (7-2): 3-year-old filly has held her own v. elders, hitting the board in past three outings (3:1-1-1); all of a sudden has been quick from the gate and could find it tough sledding in the slop

Race 4 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #3 – Anissa (9-2): Could surprise in fourteenth career start but only third off the turf; finally drops in for a tag and adds blinkers which could be the difference; hopefully main track is not be listed as “fast”
  2. #8 – Dorothyfromdublin (2-1): Has improved in placing and/or BRIS# speed figure-wise in every start; gets sixth different jockey in as many outings which is third after a layoff could be the charm; stretch out to two turns should help this gray daughter of Paddy O’Prado break her maiden
  3. #4 – Natural Notion (5-2): Makes third start since last Oct. and failed as PT even money favorite in what must have been a very weak field based on her ’17 debut effort (4th by 4¼ lengths)

Race 5

  1. #5 – Absolute Pinnacle (3-1): There’s enough runners in here to cause the early pace to be honest if not quick; this 4-year-old makes fourth start for trainer M. Eppler after missing victories by a neck in each of her last two, one at this level here and the other one level higher at Del but v. a weaker field than today
  2. #7 – Horseshoe Harbour (5-1): Draw a line through that last race turf start when not given much of a chance by bettors and when entering first turn; earned an 80 BRIS# in maiden win on Pim main track at this distance… won’t find another in here with lofty number
  3. #1 – Impressive Way (6-1): Stretches out for fourth consecutive race and seems to relish the added distance every time being a grandson of Tiznow; surprise runner-up in first start v. winners at this level    

Race 6 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #4 – Earned It (8-1): Runner-up in off the turf event 3 back when leading the way with pressure; don’t see where the early pressure will come from based on anticipated scratches
  2. #5 – Wild Dynaformer (9-2): Steeplechase runner who is 1 for 21 is 0 for 3 on the flats, hence is eligible for maiden races; work tab shows he holds his own on dirt
  3. #12 – Valley Cat (30-1): Why not?! All kind of trouble on turf in latest and salvaged SHOW purse in off the turf event at this level showing early speed; trainer B. Plummer seeks first win of ‘17

Race 7

  1. #3 – Concordia’s Way (5-1): Traveling 7 furlongs in latest was a bit too far especially in when against plenty of others wanting to be on or near the lead; pace scenario in here will be much more relaxed early on
  2. #6 – It’s a Journey (7-5): Deserving favorite after crushing similar restricted to MD-bred/sired runners in latest as runner-up won next outing; only knock is he hasn’t put together two consecutive solid efforts
  3. #4 – Hickory Hill (6-1): Gets HOF rider E. Prado as F. Lynch hops off for the T. Morley NY shipper (not a fan); ITM in 8 of 10 Lrl outings with a chance to score on the step up       

Race 8 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #1/1A – Claravoyant/Tiz a Diamond (6-5): Trainer M. Eppler is living a charmed life as both parts of entry were MTO; a 1-2 finish is likely so PLACE could pay more than WIN… just sayin’
  2. #4 – Fleet Flame (12-1): Broke maiden v. $25kMCL in latest on dirt after being runner-up in first turf try; both after blinkers were added; switch to main track helped chances immensely
  3. #2 – Durango Girl (15-1): Totally ignored (45-1) in debut when in against $10kMCL, winning like she was shot out of a cannon entering the stretch going 6f; stretch out to (now) one mile on dirt should benefit her

Race 9

  1. #6 – Malibu Sunset (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Appears to be lone “need the lead” speed type who comes off three consecutive 7 panel efforts; won only 6f start, which was his career debut by 10 in gate-to-wire fashion
  2. #3 – Two Charley’s (5-2): Cuts back to 6f after only managing SHOW purse v. 4 others at Mth in Alw; beat “Parade” (#7) in here two back; today will be third race after layoff
  3. #7 – Parade of Nations (3-1): Goes natural Hat Trick with third different jock (wishing J. Pimentel the best on his long road to recovery); A. Cintron gets the mount but concerned this gelding might bounce off that big BRIS# (98)

Race 10 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #5 – Red Clay Road (5-1): Field was decimated by scratches when washed off the turf; lone speed gets it done
  2. #12 – Leather Goods (8-1): Gets the nod on the third straight drop in fourth lifetime start; second start with blinkers often yields dividends
  3. #13 – Noontime Stroll (6-1): Sneaks in off Also-Eligible in spite of being off the turf; makes first main track start in fourth of career; breeding indicates he should handle it as well as turf      

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday July 2nd at Laurel had 6 winners from the 9-race card (5 Top Selection; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $2.40 (2nd race), $6.00 (3rd), $4.60 (5th), $7.20 (7th) $11.40 (8th) and $8.20 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R8-R9 $2 DOUBLE for $51.20 (cost: $12). Top Selections in 2017 are 190 for 713 (26.65%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (77: 25-19-13; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Notable Game (7th race: 4-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) chased the pace three wide, pulled herself to the lead midway on the turn, drew clear towards the quarter pole, opened up under a vigorous hand ride in the upper stretch but raced in hand the final sixteenth to win by nine and one-half lengths to return $7.20 to WIN, $2.80 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (67: 8-8-11; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) Silent Tale (7th race: 6-1 M/L; 6-1 PT) rated a short lead inside, drifted a bit leaving the turn then dropped back toward the sixteenth pole and weakened to finish 7th.

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