The GQ Approach – Laurel June 18

by | Jun 18, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $9,084
  • Super High 5: $9,729
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Exits a “Key” Race - A “key” race is one where two or more horses came back to win in their next race, and horses coming out of the races often ran better than the figs might suggest.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 / #1 – Expect a Kitten (7-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 / #5 – Holy Scat (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1: $2 DOUBLE   1, 2  w/ 3, 5 ($8)
  • Race 3: $0.50 Pick-3  1, 6, 8, 9  w/ 3, 7  w/ 4, 5, 7  ($12)
  • Race 6: $0.50 Pick-5  1, 2, 7  w/ 4, 9  w/ 1, 6  w/ 1, 6  w/ 1, 9, 12 ($36)
  • Race 9: $2 DOUBLE   1, 6  w/ 1, 9, 12 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ chance of showers; highs in the upper-80s
  • Scheduled Turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, and 10th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST; Turf: FIRM

HAPPY FATHER’S DAY *** Post Time is 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Add Four (3-1): Missed by a neck at Pid after uncharacteristically leading nearly every step of the way as Post Time favorite; returns to Lrl turf and gets F. Boyce in the irons for the first time in 10th career effort
  2. #1 – Unwarrie Sky (8-1): Second time blinkers angle; not a bad effort in first start to trainer K. Rubley after showing no interest in running a lick at TP and Kee; looking for another step forward
  3. #5 – Kopper Wire (2-1): Logical choice on paper but can you trust this 5 y.o. gelding making his 21st attempt to earn his diploma? Jock S. Hamilton has had the most success when aboard

Race 2

  1. #3 – Stilburnin (9-5): Trainer J. Corrales is 20% with runners in 2nd start after claim and more telling 29% on a 2+ class level drop; this gray gelding was second versus much better so hopefully that doesn’t raise the caution flag  
  2. #5 – Fifties Music (7-2): Appears to be a need the lead type who when he doesn’t get it, loses interest; don’t see any others in here that will beat him to the first call, need 7 lb. bug to realize that  
  3. #7 – R Lucifier (6-1): Ideal distance for this deep Closer is 7 furlongs but coming off the 5½f event at Pim might help him get interested earlier to get a large piece of the purse going 6f

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Iggy Logo (5-1): Full of run in in the stretch in latest at this same level but was caught behind horses, jock had to check, nearly coming to a stop yet somehow when got clear ran on to be fourth less than 2 lengths behind the winner
  2. #1 – Lost Story (5-2): Hails from the barn of Michael Matz who is also part-owner; lone win came on the dirt at Del but has picked up minor shares when competing on turf at GP this past winter
  3. #8 – Liquid Aloha (9-2): Is bred to go this 9 furlongs distance which is further than any of the runners in here have travelled; interesting that H. Karamanos takes mount on this K. Breen Mth shipper while jumping off the M. Eppler trainee (#10); maybe Page McKenney will have a new rider in his next start?  

Race 4

  1. #7 – Honor and Blessing (2-1): Three starts, three different surfaces v. MSW; maybe she doesn’t care for a fast, dirt track but catches what appears to be a soft $25kMCL; if a predicted shower hits prior to Post Time… all the better
  2. #3 – Chobee Girl (8-1): WV-bred FTS by nice MD sire Great Notion out of a Not for Love mare is only 4 y.o. v. a bunch of 3 y.o.; time for jock/trainer buddies to end their 0 for 17 streak
  3. #2 – Socially Driven (3-1): Will likely find herself alone on the early lead, able to nurse those early fractions in hopes of outlasting the rest of these gals; away since debut last Aug. at The Big T

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Holy Scat (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Might be a stretch but what the hell… trainer A. Eubanks quietly does well with newcomers to her barn in first start (3 for 6); toss that dirt start in her latest as this mare has the back class and has been part of the Exacta (4:2-2-0) in every turf start at this one mile distance
  2. #4 – Cracking Good Pins (7-2): A likely underlay with E. Prado in the irons but runners on turf seem to greatly improve w/ the Hall of Famer taking the reins; just a slight step up is needed here
  3. #7 – Issheit (10-1): Faced a tough Starter Alw group in latest and it showed (6th by 10); drops back into a Claimer, third race after layoff and if this 9 y.o. mare gets a decent early pace she’ll make her presence known in deep stretch   

Race 6

  1. #2 – Leather Goods (5-1): Adds blinkers, drops from $40kMCL and though finishing 5 behind ML favorite (#1) last time going 6f, stretch out to one mile fits his pedigree profile (by Dialed In out of a Skip Away mare)
  2. #7 – Fifty West (7-2): Gate scratch in when in for $16kMCL after nice runner-up effort when walking out of the gate in debut for $10k; since there was a line in the racing office to claim him for $16k, connections wisely upped the sale price to $25k
  3. #1 – Clubman (9-5): Been burning bettors money in 4 of 6 starts when sent off as Post Time favorite; continues to drop in search of that elusive maiden win which today may come in gate-to-wire effort; purchased last year for $75k, this 3 y.o. appears to be Claim-bait     

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – No Knock Raid (6-1): Traffic troubles on Pim turf in first race after F. Allen $16k claim when facing better; drops back to claiming level seeking third career win while back on Lrl lawn, scene of both career victories
  2. #4 – Mr. Benz (2-1): Beaten favorite in latest when claimed by trainer P. Schoenthal (26% in first race after claim); shortens up to sprint, another positive angle (30%) for this conditioner
  3. #10 – Crowd Funding (9-2): NY shipper taking steep class drop after losing both ’17 starts by a combined 59 lengths but on dirt; his turf and off track efforts are more pleasing to the eye

Race 8

  1. #1 – Expect a Kitten (7-2): *** BEST BET *** First start after KTL claim (31%) and will give a leg up to J. Toledo (duo is 31% over past year); breeding is turf top and bottom but was runner-up by a nose and SHOWed in only two main track outings, both in MSW; will need foes to provide honest early fractions
  2. #6 – High Tolerance (8-1): Got a horrible start when 35-1 in ’17 debut following 5-month layoff but showed late interest to complete the Super High-5; a shower prior to Post Time would help her chances
  3. #7 – Bring Me Answers (7-2): Has failed in all four starts when sent off the Post Time favorite yet only other start was her maiden breaker when 10-1… go figure! Willing to believe she’s not fond of a wet track; needs to be more forwardly placed early to threaten late  

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Jockamo’s Song (7-2): This LA-bred showed he can compete in open company in runner-up effort in local bow; SHOW runner (Lanier) came back last week to set Lrl turf course record
  2. #1 – Esposito (6-1): Ownership group are no doubt Bruin hockey fans; makes turf debut but proved to be turf-worthy in nice synthetic surface win at WO; needs to be quick from the gate due to rail post
  3. #3 – Light the Night (4-1): Recorded career best BRIS# (94) in latest at this level but in an off the turf event at Pim, first start in 4-months; turf record isn’t too shabby (10:2-3-1) which came v. better in NY and FL    

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1. #12 – Great Captain (6-1): Couldn’t carry his speed another 100 yards when betting favorite in latest over a yielding Lrl lawn; a trio of works since that start and firmer ground add up to a winning effort v. this group
  2. #1 – Sensational Notion (4-1): Just missed in the slop at Pim going 6f in last outing; returns to turf course where he was third behind two next out winners
  3. #9 – True Cat (8-1): Took action (4-1) in debut but was no match in a MSW field of decent runners where the winner came back to be runner-up in a tough Alw event yesterday and runner-up duplicated that effort in next MSW outing; trainer “Ham” Smith is 28% w/ MSW to MCL move     

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday June 17th at Laurel had just 4 winners from the 10-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $31.80 (6th race), $15.60 (7th), $11.20 (8th) and $5.40 (10th). Top Selections in 2017 are 174 for 645 (26.98%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (70: 22-17-13; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Catching Fireflies (6th race: 4-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) five-wide between horse on the turn, rallied outside of the winner coming up a neck short and returned $4.20 to PLACE and $3.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (60: 8-8-10; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) Soup d’Coupe (10th race: 5-1 M/L; 5-1 PT) saved ground on the first turn, raced in the two path between horses on the far turn, swung to the three path in upper stretch, advanced in mid-stretch but flattened out finishing 4th, just 1½ lengths behind the winner.

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