The GQ Approach – Pimlico May 18

by | May 18, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Pimlico for the 12-day live racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $3,241
  • Super High 5: $3,053
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
House Silks - This is a “play against” angle, especially in a maiden race. If the connections did not make their own silks available to the track for the jockey to wear, then what are the odds any of them will show in hopes of getting in a Winner's Circle photo with the jockey not donning the barn's silks?!
Best Bet of the Day
Race 3 / #3 – Celtic Moon (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 / #2 – Nickos Red Star (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1: $2 DOUBLE  2, 8  w/ 1, 6 ($8)
  • Race 3: $0.50 Pick-3  3, 6, 8  w/ 6, 7, 11  w/ 2, 3, 7  ($13.50)
  • Race 5: $0.50 Pick-5  2, 3  w/ 2, 6 w/ 1, 2 w/ 2, 4, 5 w/ 2, 5 ($24)
  • Race 8: $2 Double  2, 5  w/ 2, 3, 5 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Sunny; highs in the low-90s
  • Scheduled Turf races: 1st, 4th, 6th and 8th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST; Turf: FIRM

Post Time for 1st race is 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Party Regent (7-2): Was game in turf debut at Lrl two back when in for $20kMCL, unable to hold off winner after blistering early fractions; gets 1/16th distance break at Pim and HOF rider E. Prado takes the reins
  2. #8 – Jakesoutcaster (9-2): Away since last Sept. will reemerge at level where he missed graduating by a head-bob, but that was going two-turns; like that H. Karamanos signs on to ride for 21% trainer J. Reynolds
  3. #6 – Olimpico (4-1): Early speed and tired in all 3 turf tries at GP going 5f; migrates north w/ trainer J. Cibelli; hoping she’s built a tad more stamina in the three-year-old Spring At Last gelding

Race 2

  1. #6 – Champagne Time (1-1): BRIS Prime Power# backs up her Morning Line odds as she’s always found her way into the Exacta when in for a nickel but disappointed bettors as Post Time choice; twice a bridesmaid at this N3L condition should relish the extra 1/16th
  2. #1 – My City (9-2): Beat the top pick and #5 when winning N2L condition three races back; excuse in latest as saddled slipped and before that caught a sloppy Pen oval
  3. #5 – Ghetto Fabulous (3-1): Appears to be on the improve as speed figures have been on the rise; may have caught a weak N2L in latest but still a threat to top two       

Race 3

  1. #3 – Celtic Moon (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Drops a level after being absent from the races for 3+ months but trainer A. Simoff does well (24%) in this scenario and when T. McCarthy is the pilot (27%)
  2. #6 – Brothersofthetime (3-1): Interesting claim by trainer K. Cartagena when stepped up but didn’t fair too well; waited until out of jail to drop back to level he could be successful
  3. #8 – Fairy Cat (2-1): Been burning bettors money lately as beaten favorite in 3 of past 5 outings… at this level; troubled trip in latest but wasn’t going to catch winner

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1.  #6 – Painted Patchen (9-2): This guy typically gets attention due to being a rare white (not gray) horse, but he’s a legit contender in this event, first race off trainer L. Gaudet claim (24%), adds blinkers (33%) and should relish added distance
  2. #11 – Soup d’Coupe (3-1): Nine-year-old making 51st start still seeks first win on Pim lawn (9:0-4-2) and at 9f (4:0-1-1); maybe trainer K. Magee can cure a lifetime of Second-itis in first race after claim
  3.  #7 – Our Emerald Forest (5-1): Only one of a few in here wanting to be close to the early pace; first start after 8-month layoff going 9f may have been asking too much   

Race 5

  1. #2 – Holiday Prayer (4-1): Second start form trainer M. Trombetta runner who didn’t take to sprinting on the turf in debut; blinkers go on and could be a threat to go gate-to-wire on the stretch-out to two turns
  2. #3 – Grace Isabella (6-5): Those ML odds are due to how bad the other half dozen in here look on paper, not that she’s poised to graduate; BRIS#s having been regressing in each start since she earned an 82 in debut, four races back
  3. #7 – Paluxy Princess (5-2): Let’s pretend she didn’t care for the turf (9th) after she was fourth, 19-lengths behind the winner (Black-Eyed Susan contender Light of Medina) in her debut going one mile on the Lrl dirt                

 

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Nickos Red Star (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Steadied multiple times during most recent at this level, surface and distance in first start of ’17; a more aggressive ride may have earned second career win; this field is filled with early speed to give bug boy C. Carrasco a chance to stalk and pounce late
  2. #6 – Tigers Bop (9-2): Should be the speed of the speed and discourage others early by clearing field into the turn; took a few tries to break maiden being able to last for 5½f at Lrl while at Pim only need to go 5f
  3. #7 – Zapata (5-2): Boasts best turf BRIS# (89) among this assembled group; takes class drop in third race after layoff and exits “key” race (two back; most recent on turf) when fourth as the top three all came back to winner next out   

Race 7

  1. #2 – Follow the Petals (3-1): Hard to get a bead on this filly’s class level, but seems to run best on turf and/or synthetic but did break maiden at first asking at Lrl over a “good’ track in Jan.; the early speed will come back to her if she’s up for it on a fast track
  2. #1/1A – Radiant Beam/Miss Swisher (9-5): “Beam” ships in from Prx following claim out of $10k restricted to 3 y.o. while “Miss” destroyed a $16kn2L field, earning personal best 81 BRIS#
  3. #7 – Friesan Flyer (6-1): Seems to have turned it around or just found a very weak N2L group at Pen last time out; returns to MD in hopes of getting a Fast track unlike past two at Lrl  

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Ballivor (7-2): Game 4-year-old ridgling has hit the board in 7 of 10 races; spent the winter on dirt at Aqu but first five races of career were on grass; broke maiden after being bridesmaid by a neck in only two turf tries in MD, albeit at Lrl; first start after trainer T. Keefe claim (15%) 
  2. #2 – Enough is Enough (3-1): First time taking to the turf since trainer M. Eppler claimed him out of N2L turf event last Fall; should relish getting back on the grass but 3-1 a bit low to take
  3. #4 – Coach Matthew (8-1): Lightly raced 4-year-old won debut on Lrl lawn going this distance; in the 3 races since he’s beaten just one rival, all on dirt; finally returns to turf

Race 9

  1. #5 – Seven Knots (8-1): Adds Blinkers and drops a couple class levels; two turns this time around might do the trick versus this crew
  2. #2 – Apollo Eleven (4-1): Not shooting for the moon but dropping down trying to get diploma in 17th career outing; NY-bred couldn’t handle his own in Big Apple nor at Pen; latest was encouraging
  3. #3 – Horseshoe Harbour (9-5): Dances every dance at this maiden level but has a case of Second-itis (10:0-5-1); much the second best (10 in front of SHOW runner) in latest taken off the turf, earning personal best 72 BRIS# for new barn; first-time around two turns might help him graduate

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday May 14th at Pimlico had 6 winners from the 9-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $2.80 (1st race), $3.20 (2nd), $5.60 (4th), $13.00 (5th), $6.00 (6th) and $5.80 (8th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 DOUBLE for $4.80 (cost: $6). Top Selections in 2017 are 139 for 510 (27.25%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (57: 18-13-11; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Emelina (3rd race: 7-2 M/L; 4-1 PT) set the pace and gave way grudgingly while being much the second best and returned $5.20 to PLACE and $4.20 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (49: 6-8-9; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) Sarah’s Whisper (5th race: 10-1 M/L; 5-1 PT) sent to the early lead, set the pace in the two path, was challenged by PRET SAY EYE approaching the eighth pole, dueled inside that one and prevailed by three-quarters of a length under energetic urging and returned $13.00 to WIN, $5.40 to PLACE and $5.20 to SHOW.

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