The GQ Approach – Laurel March 12

by | Mar 12, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Friday, Saturday and Sunday through May 7, 2017; Post Time 1:10pm EDT), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: no carryover
  • Super High 5: $3,229.29
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Exits a “Key” Race - A “key” race is one where two or more horses came back to win in their next race, and horses coming out of the races often ran better than the figs might suggest.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 1 / #7 – Big Brother Bubba (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 / #7 – Conquest See Ya (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1: $2 Double  1, 7 w/ 1, 3,4  ($12)
  • Race 3: $1 Pick-3  1, 2, 6  w/ 2, 3, 6  w/ 3, 6, 7  ($13.50)
  • Race 5: $0.50 Pick-5  3, 7 w/ 1, 7  w/ 4, 5  w/ 2, 6, 7  w/ 2, 7, 9  ($36)
  • Race 8: $2 Double  2, 6, 7 w/ 2, 7, 9  ($18)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly SUNNY; highs in the mid-30s
  • Projected condition of main track: FAST
  • No turf racing until Spring 2017

REMINDER: 1st Post starting SUNDAY, March 12th will be 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #7 – Big Brother Bubba (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Been facing much better foes than the assembled group in this opener; should get a nice stalking trip as there’s plenty of early speed to his inside
  2. #1 – Honor Commitment (8-5): One of two trainer M. Pino runners on the card; makes Lrl debut and third start after layoff; has disappointed backers both times he’s gone off as Post Time favorite
  3. #5 – Inner Fire (5-1): Has improved Brisnet speed figures in each of his last four starts at Lrl, earning career best in latest when winning $5kn2L

Race 2

  1. #3 – Hallucination (5-2): Prx shipper gets the nod over this weak group of 3 y.o. fillies searching for their second lifetime win; this gal has been consistent since being claimed out of debut by trainer M. Pino
  2. #1 – Star Touch (2-1): Not much of an effort in both starts facing winners after breaking maiden for $25k MCL locally; biggest challenge will be stretching out to one mile
  3. #4 – Tresso (7-2): Another invader from PA; took 2 months off after maiden win at today’s distance; distant 3rd in return; J. Toledo/M. Shuman have done well (4 for 11)     

Race 3

  1. #6 – All This Jazz (7-2): Ran a winning race but caught in deep stretch by a pair of foes; this time as J. Toledo takes over; could try to go gate-to-wire
  2. #1/1A – I Have No Secrets/Undaunted Spirit (5-2): Trainer J. Corrales duo ran coupled in most recent starts as it was #1 debut w/o Lasix… gets it today; #1A has shown much better since addition of Lasix
  3. #2 – Jazzlyn (20-1): Has had the look of wanting to going further; though this isn’t two turns, it stretches her out further than any other, which back to Y. Ortiz could help             

      

Race 4

  1. #2 – Flying Arrow (2-1): KY-bred FTS by Tapit out of an Indian Charlie mare cost a cool $400k as a yearling; extensive worktab shows gap between last Aug. until Jan.; trainer L. Rice ships them in ready to win
  2. #6 – Twin Valor (7-2): Nice 3 y.o. Into Mischief gelding has been on the short end in 7 starts to the likes of El Areeb and Irish War Cry; missed by a nose in latest going one mile
  3. #3 – No Mo Dough (3-1): Trainer G. Motion sends out KY-bred FTS by Uncle Mo who may want more than 6 furlongs; been working well at Fai with nice gate works going 5 and 6f

Race 5

  1. #3 – Carolina Dreams (2-1): Runner-up in first start for trainer K. Cartagena when transferred from Prx-based M. Zulueta (27%) barn; that was going 6f, stretches back out to preferred distance (9:2-3-2)
  2. #7 – La Bruna Forte (7-5): Turf runner still seeks first fast track win (9:0-2-2) after runner-up to next out winner when dropped to this level from Alwn1x; T. McCarthy stay aboard for K. Magee
  3. #6 – Champagne Time (4-1): Took longer than usual (3 starts) after C. Gonzalez claim to get to Winners Circle which required drop to this bottom; this N3L may be skipping a condition just to fill race?            

Race 6

  1. #7 – Don’t Poke the Cat (8-5): Scratched from yesterday’s $16kMCL as stablemate ran second as odds on favorite; though he gets in here for $25kMCL there aren’t any foes to truly fear based on PPs
  2. #1 – Coach Pat (4-1): Nice spot for M. Dubb owned KY-bred FTS by Old Fashioned out of an Elusive Quality mare for trainer J. Maldonado who’s on a hot streak (22% at meet; 36% in ’17); that final AM bullet drill will get your attention 
  3. #5 – Archie’s Revenge (12-1): Could score at a nice price in this weak looking $25kMCL as he stretches out from sprints to one mile which pedigree suggests success; trainer C. Tapscott looks to break 0 for 21 at Lrl meet    

    

Race 7

  1. #5 – Moonspell (5-2): Exits dominating maiden breaking win in 8th career start, albeit on an off track; trainer A. Merryman must have cured his ills during 8-month layoff or jock F. Lynch is the perfect fit
  2. #4 – Speightshill (8-5): The Lightbulb Theory needs to be in effect as this 5 y.o. gelding finally got to winners Circle in 19th career start; ML oddsmaker believes in it as well based on favoritism
  3. #3 – Forever Bernardini (10-1): Has had a rough go of it racing on a fast track (3:0-0-0) but sprinting in first outing after 2-monthh layoff is not in his DNA; look for better effort going one mile  

Race 8

  1. #7 – Conquest See Ya (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Toughest race on the card IMHO; hard to toss any of the 8 who will go postwards, so this one making third start and after layoff for trainer C. Lynch has progressed nicely and should move forward giving best effort in here
  2. #2 – Henry the King (5-1): Edged top pick by a head to be runner-up to next out winner Stolen Love who is likely ML favorite or second choice in $75k stakes sprint on Saturday; been part of Exacta in all 3 fast track races
  3. #6 – Blu Moon Ace (4-1): Has faced better (n3x) in past couple over an off track where he’s better on a fast track (5: 2-1-1); 10 lb. wonder bug C. Carrasco gets the mount as H. Karamanos takes usual spot aboard a L. Rice shipper (#3)

Race 9

  1. #7 – Snoutus Quo (9-2): Usually not a fan of CT shippers but this one came via Tam earning decent Brisnet speed figures to be considered a player at this bottom level N2L; only entry for trainer R. Nagle (19% with shippers)
  2. #2 – Vaughn (4-1): Took ill-advised step up in latest to $16kN2L and got drubbed; back in for $5k where she was runner-up two back
  3. #9 – Cheering for Al (7-5): Many NY shippers who take a steep drop come up empty at Lrl except trainer L. Rice’s; still not having a warm and fuzzy feeling about this form Rudy Rod trainee who hasn’t been out since Dec. 30th   

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday March 11th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 9 race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-off of $19.60 (1st race), $8.20 (3rd), $10.80 (4th), $4.60 (5th), $4.40 (6th) and $3.00 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R3-R5 50 cent Pick-3 for $29.95 (cost: $13.50). On Top Selections in 2017 are 60 for 251 (23.90%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (29: 10-5-4; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Color Me Sexy (5th race: 3-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) chased the pace two wide around the turn, drifted to the three path in upper stretch and gave way to finish 5th.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (27: 1-2-6; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) San Cristo (4th race: 8-1 M/L; 14-1 PT) was taken wide soon after a sluggish beginning, was hustled along five wide around the turn, angled wider for the drive and closed steadily under repeated left handed rousing to finish 4th.

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